When Putin sent tanks into Ukraine,
he started a war that quickly became much bigger than ‘just’ an invasion.
Everywhere you look, all sorts of relationships are changing.
Between countries, between economies and between people and their governments.
Our correspondents around the globe report on how this attack is having consequences for countries
and people far from the battlefield. But let’s start in Ukraine itself.
This war is a fight for Ukraine’s survival as an independent state. One which will answer
the question of where its future lies. The majority of Ukrainians have solved
this question a long time ago – they want to be aligned with the west. But the western partners,
especially in Europe, had doubts about this. They were debating this question, much to the
frustration of many Ukrainians, further and further. The resolve that the Ukrainians have
shown in this war has changed this, and now Ukraine’s ambitions to be part of the west
are recognised by many partner countries. The most notable sign of this shift in
western perception was the beginning of the membership process, of the accession process by
the European Union, something that Ukraine has long asked for, but was
always rejected by Europe on different grounds. So in the end this war has not only brought
Ukrainians closer together, it has not only united the country and has also diluted doubts
about each other, the western Ukrainians about the eastern Ukrainians and the eastern Ukrainians
about the western Ukrainians – it has also brought Ukraine and the west closer together.
The flipside to this? A massive divide between the west and Russia.
Internationally Russia is now more isolated than ever, at least in the west. And this
divide between Russia and the west here to stay, not just for weeks or months,
but for many, many years. Russia has become a pariah state, an outcast. This has led Moscow on
an increasingly desperate search for new partners elsewhere - be it selling more oil to China,
or servicing western-built planes with the help of Iran. Iran is interesting because
it’s a country that’s been internationally sanctioned for decades, and learned to live
with, and to work around those sanctions. And also the Baltic states are pushing back
against Moscow. Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have clamped down on immigration from Russia
and are striving for energy independence. Here in Latvia where I am now, there is even talk of
tearing down all Soviet monuments from the past. The iron curtain is back, like it was in the
Soviet Union. If that was one of Putin’s goals - the restoration of the Soviet
Union - he’s successfully achieved that goal, at least as far as the Cold War is concerned.
The war has highlighted Ukraine’s vital role in feeding the world.
Tens of millions of tonnes of grain have been stuck in storage due to the fighting.
People in many places are feeling the pressure. Africa might be thousands of miles away from the
war in Ukraine, but dining tables here are taking a hit. Nigeria imports more than 80 percent of its
wheat and almost half the food served in Nigerian homes are derived from wheat. Things like bread,
noodles, pasta and cereal. Many Nigerians who were already dealing
with inflation after the covid 19 lockdowns are facing the threat of hunger and even starvation.
The rising cost of food and increasing poverty have worsened the problem of
insecurity all across the country. Crimes like kidnapping for ransom are on the rise,
and things are projected to get worse. If Nigerians continue to get more dissatisfied
with the government over its failure to get a grip of the economic and security situation,
the president faces the threat of being impeached before the general elections in 2023.
Nigeria has the biggest population in Africa. Political instability here
could spread beyond its borders to the rest of West Africa.
The diplomatic fall-out has also been global. India has long been friends with Russia,
to get weapons the west won’t sell, and as a buffer against major rival China.
India is re-examining this - because of how the west sees such a friendship - and because
things between Russia and China are shifting. Despite India’s proximity to Russia, successive
Indian governments have been warming to the United States. They see Washington as a key partner at
many levels. This war in Ukraine has exposed what some see as India’s strategic ambiguity.
Despite initial fumbling, India seems to have found its balance on the diplomatic tightrope.
When it discovered the western world was not going to push India into a diplomatic corner at
this very sensitive time, India gained confidence. The foreign ministry began talking about balancing
India’s interests, and it reacted sharply at what it perceived as western double standards
especially when it came to importing Russian oil. But all this could all backfire because India’s
refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could weaken its mantra of territorial integrity
and sovereignty. Especially when it comes to China. The two countries are rivals and
neighbours, they share a long border, they have territorial disputes and they have a fraught
relationship. In this context, if Russia and China come closer together it could make it very
difficult for India, and it could once again start wobbling on the diplomatic tightrope.
In the midst of the Ukrainian war, India’s initial shaky position has stabilized and even
gained traction. It was envied by those countries that could not afford to choose one side over the
other. And India is a part of many multilateral groups, some overlapping and some not. This
increased its diplomatic space to maneuver and also enhanced its sense of importance.
Not far away, China carries out unprecedented military drills
in the Taiwan Strait, putting Taipei on edge. They were portrayed as a reaction to America's
top parliamentarian Nancy Pelosi visiting the democratic island at the beginning of August.
Taiwan held defence drills of its own - with an eye on parallels between itself and Ukraine.
Taiwan’s ministry of national defence said this year’s exercise is based on war game simulations
that are modelled after lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war. It includes scenarios like
fighter jets intercepting invading war planes and also helicopters playing cat-and-mouse
with submarines. Taiwanese president Tsai Ing Wen said these exercises reflect the ability
and determination that Taiwan can defend itself and this is also the first time that the ministry
of national defence has called on reservists to join the exercises, highlighting the importance
of ensuring Taiwan’s combat readiness. As the war in Ukraine continues,
one of the biggest changes that has taken place here in Taiwan over the last few months has
been Taiwanese people’s growing awareness of the risks of a potential military conflict with China,
and their willingness to participate in first aid and combat related trainings.
To a place now, where Asia and Europe meet. Turkey is playing a complex role in the crisis. One that
could become harder to manage in the months ahead. The war has put Turkey in a difficult position.
As a member of NATO, the country is strategically aligned with the West. But President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan and his government are performing a delicate balancing act - supporting Ukraine
while trying not to antagonize Russia. Turkey has provided Kyiv with combat drones – but
resisted joining Western sanctions against Moscow. And the Turkish leader is trying to turn
the challenge into an opportunity - casting his country as the most engaged mediator between the
two sides. Erdogan facilitated the first attempts at peace talks, and played a key role in securing
the grain deal signed by Russia and Ukraine in July, aimed at averting a global food crisis,
And he’s using this center stage position to project greater Turkish
influence – in the broader region, but also internationally, vis-a-vis the West. But as
the war drags on - and with an election coming up here in Turkey in 2023 - observers are asking
how long Erdogan can continue his balancing act - or whether he will have to pick a side.
The West - led by the US - is now having to face in two directions
at once. Plans to make China the primary focus for geopolitical attention have had to be adapted.
That’s because Russia has once again emerged as the west’s rival and foe raising the spectre of
the cold war. The US sees Russia as a dangerous agitator with nefarious aims: to upend western
democracy and reshape the global security order. There has been a shift in rhetoric and tone.
There was much made of Washington’s pivot to Asia during the Obama administration.
During the Trump administration China emerged as a key adversary. China certainly
hasn’t disappeared from the picture, but attention has been jolted back to Europe.
The war has made one thing pretty clear - the US still provides the backbone of European security.
All of those previous discussions about European security autonomy have proven to be far too early.
The White House is increasingly facing what it deems to be major security threats on
two fronts - China and Russia - two foes forging a deepening strategic
alliance, according to NATO. The closer Beijing and Moscow get,
the more the US will be looking to its European partners to forge an alliance of democracies.
For Europe, the big deal is energy. Europeans need Russian gas. And yet paying for it meant
they were funding an economy that they were also trying to punish with sanctions.
Russia has been Europe’s biggest supplier of energy. And for decades, member countries of
the European Union could rely on cheap Russian gas imports to heat homes and to power their industry.
As part of the sanctions the EU imposed on Moscow for its aggression on Ukraine,
the block began weaning itself off of Russian oil, coal and gas, ending decades
of dependency on Russian fossil fuels. The war in Ukraine is testing unity,
as fears grow that Russia, which has already been restricting gas supply,
will completely turn off the taps. EU member countries took the decision to reduce their
consumption, so as to save - to have enough for the winter. But some member countries feel that
it’s unfair, that everybody's been asked to reduce by the same amount, even though
not everyone uses the same amount of Russian gas. Russia was once considered a strategy partner.
It’s now been designated the most significant threat to peace and stability in the Euro area.
That’s led to Finland and Sweden taking the historic decision to join NATO. For their part,
NATO allies have committed to increasing their defence spending
and the alliance has bolstered its presence in Europe, increasing the number of troops.
The economic fallout of the war is making life harder everywhere. It’s combined with the uneven
recovery from the Corona pandemic to produce inflation worse than has been seen in decades.
Even before Russia’s invasion, prices had already been climbing.
The pandemic had scrambled supply chains leading to shortages and then there was an energy crunch.
Energy producers scaled back production when lockdowns depressed demand but then the global
economy bounced back with a vengeance and energy demand and energy prices did the same.
Together Ukraine and Russia produce about a fourth of global wheat supplies, but the war made getting
grain out of the so-called bread basket of the world difficult even though deals have since been
struck to change that. It has however put a strain on many countries dependent on those imports
and made food around the world harder to afford. Central banks around the world are trying to cool
inflation by raising interest rates. The idea is that by making money more expensive to borrow,
people will buy and spend less and that will dial back demand and help prices climb back
down. Theoretically anyway. But that also means slowing down an already slowing economy even
further, and maybe even tipping it into recession. There’s also a limit to what central banks can do.
They cannot grow wheat, they cannot produce energy and they cannot stop the war. And as
further developments in that war remain uncertain, so too does the outlook for the global economy.
Uncertainty, complexity, instability, division.
Six months on, the Ukraine war is cascading through human lives everywhere. The unwelcome
effects will likely make things harder and more dangerous long after the war ends.