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As the rest of the world was dealing with hangovers and still eating turkey sandwiches,
something unexpected happened in the Russia-Ukraine war. Vladimir Putin,
not usually known for his festive spirit, asked for a Christmas truce. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr
Zelenskyy almost choked on his dumplings (varenyky) when the news was delivered to
him. “The gall on that man,” he thought. Was Putin really in the mood for peace,
revealing to the world his more humanitarian side, or was this proposed ceasefire cooked
up with the darkest of intentions, coming from a man very well known for his seemingly boundless
cunning and conniving nature? Before we untangle this web,
you need to hear some basic facts. Christmas for the Russians is not
the same as Christmas for most of you guys. Since the country is of the Eastern Orthodox
variety of Christianity, things are slightly different. The same goes for eastern Orthodox
Christians anywhere, including in Ukraine. The simple reason is they are basing Christmas
time on the Julian calendar, which Julius Caesar introduced in 45 BC.
Most folks go by the Gregorian calendar, the one named after Pope Gregory XIII.
So, when Putin called for temporary peace, he was thinking about a 36-hour period starting
on January 6. It’s worth noting here that while Putin has said he’s Eastern Orthodox,
no one knows just how serious he is about God and everything connected to God. His piety might
merely be theater. Maybe he embraces the Christian religion only to maintain a certain public image.
Just this last Christmas, the Kremlin sent the people a message thanking the church for
“unifying society, preserving our historical memory, educating youth, and strengthening
the institution of family.” That’s what we mean by creating a certain public image.
Many leaders around the world talk this way about religion, but it doesn’t necessarily mean in their
private time, they practice what they preach. With that in mind, you might wonder if Putin
was trying to look devout last Christmas, but at the back of his mind, he wasn’t thinking about
the sacrifice Jesus Christ made for the good of humanity but was adding up all the ways that being
outwardly pious can help him in the capacity of war and public relations. We can’t say for
sure. Only Putin himself knows how he feels about Christianity. We can say that his war in Ukraine
is made a lot easier with religion at his side. The Ukrainians, for the most part, don’t believe
Putin is the kind of guy to wish goodwill on mankind, not at Christmas and not at any other
part of the year. For many, Putin uses religion to gain support, given that so many people in Russia
and beyond are orthodox Christians. He knows if you want to invade countries, you need God behind
you. Ask most leaders of warring countries from the past to the present. War is all good when
you have the green light from the Big Man. As young Russian men die and are severely
injured on the battlefield in their tens of thousands, possibly more than 100,000 so far,
Putin needs God. He has to look devout at Christmas and talk about peace and goodwill.
Let’s remember that Russia also likes to think that it is the protector of Ukraine’s Orthodox
Christians. When you think about it, Putin would have been mad not to conspicuously
support Christianity last Christmas. In terms of political strategy, it was absolutely necessary.
That’s exactly what the Ukrainian leadership thought after Putin announced that possible
ceasefire. They called the truce a “cynical trap” and just another move in the propaganda
stakes. They didn’t believe Putin’s proposed provisional peace for a second. As you’ll see,
they had good reason to think that way. Before we talk about that, we should
introduce a man who wields a lot of power in Russia, a guy Putin certainly needs on his
side. He is Vladimir Mikhailovich Gundyayev, the so-called Patriarch of Moscow and all Russia. Also
known as His Holiness, this guy is the top dog where religion is concerned in Russia.
Over the last century, Christians haven’t had it easy in Russia. The Communists - when Lenin and
Stalin were in charge - persecuted and killed many of them. Over the years, millions of Christians
were executed. The persecution only really ended when Communism finally collapsed in Russia.
It’s understandable, then, that church leaders in Russia, especially the older ones, are somewhat
wary of the state. Still, Gundyayev is behind Putin 100 percent. It was him that called for
the truce, but let’s not fool ourselves and think Putin wasn’t the one who came up with the idea.
Gundyayev is said to have had KGB connections back in the day,
the organization Putin worked for before he got into politics. They have remained close
for many years. Gundyayev plays a key part in Putin’s politics these days. As the saying goes,
they are as snug as a bug in a rug, with the rug being Russia.
They often meet to talk shop. When Russia invaded Syria, Gundyayev gave the full
support of the church. Putin has paid back in kind, letting it slide when Gundyayev was seen
enjoying some time on a luxury yacht or when he was filmed wearing a watch worth around $30,000.
In short, these two guys are in cahoots, which works for both of them. They would both be hit
hard if the other withdrew their support. That won’t happen, though, and the proposed
Christmas truce is proof. It shows exactly how the church is being utilized in this war.
When the war started, Gundyayev came out and talked about the “forces of evil” in Ukraine.
After Ukraine had success in its counter-offensive later in the year and many young men from Russia
were being sent home in body bags, Gundyayev reminded the public that all the dead soldiers had
“committed a sacrifice that washes away all sin.” For centuries religious leaders have said things
like this. Putin needs such words, so again, this is why he was so devout-looking at Christmas time.
As we said, Ukrainians already believe the Russian church leader is Putin’s war servant,
both working together to propagandize the people. No sooner was the truce announcement
made public that one of President Zelenskyy's top advisors said the Russian Orthodox Church
was nothing but a “war propagandist” dressed up as a humane entity. He added
that this is the same church that has called for “genocide” in Ukraine and has supported a
greater militarization of the Russian Federation. Ukraine didn’t just say no to the truce but said
you can stick it up your yagoditsy (rear end). They knew what Putin was thinking,
about how folks feel about Christmas truces. Putin understands very well that the entire
world shed a tear the first time they heard about those unofficial Christmas truces that
happened on battlefronts in Europe during WWI, when British and German soldiers had peaceful
get-togethers in No Man’s Land and talked about football while handing each other cigarettes.
Calling a truce was supposed to be a powerful bit of propaganda, encouraging the world’s
people to reminisce about stories of foes getting along for a day at the height of bloody carnage.
Ukraine said the gesture wasn’t just hollow but an insult to anyone who really wants peace. The
country’s officials said that after Putin had called for the ceasefire, his soldiers were busy
exchanging fire with Ukrainian soldiers on fronts in the East and South. If he
was serious about the truce, would his troops not have at least stopped firing for a while?
These shellings took place just hours after the Kremlin announced:
“As a large number of Orthodox Christians reside in the area of hostilities, we call
on the Ukrainian side to declare a ceasefire to allow them to attend church services on
Christmas Eve as well as on Christmas Day.” Around the time those shellings were happening,
the governor of the Kherson region said there had been a strike on a fire station that killed
one rescuer and wounded another four people. Ukrainian officials also reported that many
buildings had been wrecked by strikes in the eastern city of Kramatorsk. Still,
a Russian spokesperson said it had only struck back after its positions had been attacked.
We’re not sure who fired first, but we do know that one Ukrainian leader was so concerned about
a fake ceasefire that he warned Ukrainian people in battle-ravaged areas not even to attend church,
saying there could be “terrorist attacks” during the so-called truce. Was he exaggerating? Sure,
he might have been. We can’t only blame Putin for deviousness. War is a messy business.
Nonetheless, a Ukrainian MP named Inna Sovsun told the BBC,
“We are two and a half hours into this proclaimed ceasefire, and actually,
the whole territory of Ukraine is under air raid alert. So, I think that speaks for itself.”
Ukraine said there was no way it would agree to any kind of peace, not even for five minutes,
if Russia didn’t get out of its territories. The country said that it doesn’t go around attacking
troops and civilians in foreign territories, as Russia does. It said it only fights occupiers,
so there would only be peace if Russia left. Let’s also just remember here something that
happened in the Syrian War. At certain times, Russian and Syrian forces said they were opening
what is called humanitarian corridors. These are ceasefires in areas so the population of
war-torn cities and towns can get away without becoming a casualty. It seems that didn’t happen,
and when people fled, the bombs still dropped. One Syrian activist told the press:
“When they talked about these humanitarian corridors or ceasefires, we never believed
them. How can you trust someone to stop who is bombing you all the time?”
Would Putin have done the same again? That’s what Ukraine thought.
President Zelenskyy said the truce was a tactic to halt the fighting so Russian
forces could regroup in the area of the Eastern Donbas. He appeared on TV and told the people:
“They now want to use Christmas as a cover, albeit briefly, to stop the advances of our
boys in Donbas and bring equipment, ammunition, and mobilized troops closer to our positions.”
Some of you viewers we know have hearts of gold, and you’d like to believe in
man’s humanity to man at Christmas time. Sorry guys, but we have to tell you Ukraine or anyone
else who might sound cynical about Putin’s truce is just telling it to you as it is.
That’s what we think, anyway. Putin is hardly inventing the wheel here. Nations throughout
history have used peace negotiations or part-time truces as propaganda. That’s just the reality of
war. Even when those Brits and Germans and other Allies and enemies were playing soccer and burying
their dead together during WWI, the news folks received at home in their respective countries
was all about how their troops were ever so kind and not subhuman like other troops. In war,
each side wants to say the enemy drew first blood, and they also want to seem like they are the ones
who are the victims and only want peace. We might recall January of 1968 when the
North Vietnamese and Viet Cong said they would lay off the killing for the Lunar New Year. Did
they do it? Did they hell. They not only used it as a piece of propaganda, but those devious
merchants of death also used it to launch a surprise attack on the South Vietnamese.
It seems truces weren’t always observed properly many times throughout history. We found an article
in the New York Times from 1971 that talked about a Christmas truce in Vietnam. The article stated:
“American and South Vietnamese spokesmen said the truce had been violated at least 19 times
by the enemy. The Vietcong's clandestine radio accused American and South Vietnamese
forces of at least 170 violations.” The story said this was actually a
good year in terms of carnage being caused while a truce was on. People died on both
sides. Bombs still dropped. On Christmas Day, American warplanes bombed the hell
out of Laos and Cambodia. The article explains that B‐52 bombers flew from Thailand and made
a mess of trucks on Laos's Ho Chi Minh Trail complex. For the Vietcong, it was business
as usual as they fired on American planes. During the Iran-Iraq war, Saddam Hussein’s
government often offered so-called “humanitarian truces,” not necessarily as a tactic to hit an
army when they were off-guard, but to make themselves look like peace lovers and the
other side look like warmongering barbarians. So, yes, Putin is hardly reinventing the wheel.
His making sure people see him in church; his friendliness with the Mr. Big of the church;
the possible strikes during a ceasefire; it’s all just par for the course,
not just in Russia but the rest of the world. We’re not saying there’s never been a truce
that was mainly for humanitarian reasons. Trust is such an alien commodity during wars that even
if one side did mean it about temporary peace, it’s very likely the other side wouldn’t believe
it. After all, they’d have a lot to lose. Can you imagine if Ukraine did take a break,
sat back, and gazed at the starry skies while talking about the wonder of human kindness,
and then Russian forces took advantage of that to mount an attack on the snoozing troops?
It’s not certain that Russia would use the truce for tactical advantage. Still,
one thing for sure is when Putin told the Russian people that he wanted that ceasefire so the people
of Ukraine could enjoy their Christmas, he was doing so to get the public on his side – so they’d
think he had a heart. It probably worked, to some extent, and with Ukraine saying no to the truce,
he could use that to tell them, “See, see who’s the warmongers in this conflict?” With that in
mind, he actually played an Ace card. You could say Ukraine should have offered a truce first!
Still, we doubt Ukraine was too concerned about not taking advantage of the propaganda
war. On Christmas Day, it got a load of armored combat vehicles and high-tech tanks it had been
asking for from the US and Germany. The US also promised more billions in military aid.
Santa delivered; there’s no doubt about that. It doesn’t mean Putin doesn’t want peace at
some point. It seems to some people right now that he’s just hoping that he’ll be given an
off-ramp. Ukraine, though, with the full support of the West, with all those highly sophisticated
weapons flooding into the country, will no doubt demand that if there is an off-ramp, that going
down it is a damn bumpy ride. It’s also highly unlikely Ukraine will want an end to the war
while all those fancy western weapons are coming to its aid, some of which have reportedly ended
up as far as Africa. Weapons getting into the wrong hands is another reason folks in the West
might want that off-ramp to come sooner rather than later. Putin knows some people in the West
are criticizing their country’s support for the war, so again, playing the truce card was useful.
What Putin did when he held out that olive branch at Christmas was very likely heard by the critics
of the war in Europe and the US. It’s only natural that some people want this war over and done with,
seeing as men and women, and children are dying, and it is affecting how people live all over the
world, even in Africa, where humanitarian aid has been affected in some countries.
You can’t blame people for wanting this thing to be over. So, although many people were skeptical
about it, Putin's ceasefire might have at least made him look good in some people’s eyes outside
of Ukraine. After all, that’s his whole shtick, that Ukraine doesn’t want peace, and the US,
with its NATO allies, is fighting a proxy war and also don’t want peace. It’s not surprising
then that he called for a truce. It wasn’t even a gamble. It was a foregone conclusion, even if it
was unexpected for most folks when it happened. But we’ll leave you with the words of Germany’s
foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock. She had this to say about Russia’s state of mind at Christmas:
“If Putin wanted peace, he would take his soldiers home, and the war would be over.”
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Now you need to watch “The One Change to Russia Putin Couldn't Predict (War in Ukraine).” Or,
have a look at “How Putin Went From KGB Spy to President of Russia.”