The COVID-19 virus has been the one thing on everyone’s minds since the start of 2020,
as what seemed like an isolated incident quickly spiralled into a global disaster, infecting
– at the time of this writing, March 31st, 2020 – close to a million people.
It’s physically impossible to go to any reputable news source and not be bombarded
with anxiety-inducing headlines about the latest infection numbers and death tolls.
The question has probably crossed your mind: Isn’t there more we can do?
How and when is this nightmare likely to end?
Well, based on the opinions of the world’s leading experts, we hope to provide you with
some answers to those questions today.
Science writer Ed Yong, who wrote an article over two years ago explaining why a global
pandemic was basically unavoidable, has said that there are three potential ways the pandemic
can come to an end: The unlikely way, the dangerous way, and the long way.
Yong posits that the unlikely way would involve all the world’s nations suddenly cleaning
up their act, and simultaneously getting their viral situations under control through a mix
of strong quarantine measures and mass-testing rollouts, much like the 2003 SARS outbreak.
Considering how far the situation has escalated already, and the poor job many major world
powers have done in both preparing for and then controlling the spread, this particular
scenario feels more like a pipe dream than a viable choice.
Take the US, one of the most developed and prosperous nations in the world, which has
become the global epicentre for the pandemic.
All predictive models created prior to the actual pandemic took it as a given that the
US would quickly create and widely distribute an effective viral test, which is the foundation
of any successful pandemic response.
The US hasn’t done that testing and as of today, doesn’t look to have a plan in place
for making tests available to a large segment of the population.
While Italy and Spain have been ravaged by COVID-19, for the US, the worst is yet to
come.
The US has a much higher population than Italy, but fewer hospital beds per capita.
Many models predict that deaths and infections will peak in April, possibly overloading the
healthcare system, but this model relies on the assumption that all Americans will be
observing quarantine or social distancing measures.
At the time of this writing, President Trump has not ordered a national quarantine, and
many US citizens still aren’t taking the social distancing measures seriously.
In other words, things seem bad now, but an even worse disaster is coming down the track.
The second possibility for how the COVID-19 pandemic might end is also the fastest, but
it will also come with some pretty horrific costs.
You may have heard the term “herd immunity” thrown around lately.
This refers to allowing the infection to spread, either intentionally or not, with the assumption
that those who recover will develop the proper antibodies to fight off the virus and become
immune, protecting the overall population.
This is essentially the epidemiological equivalent of allowing a fire to burn itself out.
The problem with this kind of approach is that allowing a fire to burn itself out will
often leave the world with little left to burn.
If this approach was taken – as the UK government initially intended to do – millions would
die in the US alone, with tens of millions worldwide.
The third scenario is the most realistic, and will cause the least collateral damage
to human life, but it will also mean it’ll be far longer before society as we know it
will return to normal.
The general idea is that we will have to continue keeping up social distancing and quarantine
measures, putting greater focus on areas where outbreaks flare up, until an effective vaccine
can be developed.
It’ll basically be like treating the outbreak as a whole the same way as one would treat
a single case of COVID-19: Treating the condition symptomatically while the immune system fights
off the disease.
While this may seem straightforward on paper, it’s actually quite an intense process.
Not only will infections continue to occur across the globe during this elongated period,
many vulnerable people will die as a result.
Sadly, the fact that more people will die as a result of COVID-19 is inevitable at this
point.
The key at this stage is minimizing how many of those deaths occur.
The actual creation of the vaccine will also take quite some time – when factoring in
testing, development, and distribution, to get full coverage it will likely take from
a year to eighteen months.
During that time, it’s likely that the world economy will take a considerable hit as a
result of increased consumer caution under social distancing measures.
Goldman Sachs recently forecasted that there would be a 6.2% decline in US GDP as a result
of the outbreak, the biggest drop since the Great Depression.
Experts state that this won’t mean two years of continuous lockdown – it’ll be more
like several burst-like periods of social distancing.
The legacy of COVID-19 is likely to linger over the world for years to come, with millions
of people losing friends and family members as a result of the disease – though the
legacy will be considerably less morbid under this method than under an attempt at herd
immunity.
Just when and how exactly COVID-19 will end though, depends on two factors scientists
don’t fully understand just yet: the virus’ seasonality and duration of immunity.
Many Coronaviruses, such as the flu and common cold, are seasonal – meaning they have a
tendency to abate during the summer months.
Whether or not the same applies to COVID-19 will make a huge difference.
The same can be said for duration of immunity – meaning how long a person retains the
antibodies for natural immunity after first being infected.
Because the seasonal flu and common cold mutate so frequently, the duration of immunity is
relatively low – typically less than a year.
The SARS coronavirus of 2003, which was more severe and deadly, had a considerably longer
duration of immunity.
If we as a species are lucky, COVID-19 will have a duration of immunity more like SARS
than the common cold, but for now, we can only wait for scientists to collect the appropriate
data.
In the end, the COVID-19 virus will only be defeated by outlasting it and attempting to
minimize the damage it can do to people and society in the meantime.
There’s no magic silver bullet to solve this situation – only conscientious and
responsible personal choices, mixed with sensible government policy and vaccine development.
When the COVID-19 problem finally subsides, most likely in either late 2021 or early 2022,
we’ll probably have to deal with a barrage of secondary problems – from a shattered
or transformed economy to an international pandemic of mental health disorders like PTSD.
But for now, while solutions are still being developed by world governments, it’s probably
smartest for you to focus on keeping yourself safe.
Remember: To keep you and others safe from COVID-19, your best bet is to socially isolate
yourself and maintain good hygiene.
The rest, we’re sad to admit, is out of your hands.
Want to remain informed about all things pandemic?
Go check out “United States Plan for a Pandemic” and “What If Ebola Infected The Whole World?”
Stay informed, stay safe, and stay isolated.