Saturday night two degrees. In Orchard Park, New York around
340 days apart, for three games between the New England,
Patriots, and the Buffalo Bills, the Patriots, the six
seed, the bills, the
three seed, the bills. Obviously the afc's Champions,
go ahead and start us off. Let's look at first bills. Have
the ball. What are the Patriots do? Yeah, the bill I mean
the the pager is definitely have to adjust their approach a little
bit as far as what happened the
first time around
you. Heard me say a little today, you know, there was
too many plays of
where they, let Josh Allen out of the pocket and he made magic
happen. That's got to be at the Forefront of what the Patriots
want to do here. And the fact that weight,
you know, when we kept them in the pocket and did that
the results were
let's say 50/50 when he got outside the pocket, the results were
90/10 in Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills favor. That's
the first thing. I look at to where they got to change it a little
bit,
you know, and then the
Thing within that
they had problems the the Patriots, the first time around
stopping Crossing routes
from the Buffalo Bills.
They, they had issues with that and man to man and a lot of
times where like the Patriots have guys
usually to help out. Hey, it's Amanda man from a corner,
right? And the guy runs that shallow cross that Crossing route.
He knows where he's going
the corners, not only got to follow him
but usually fight through traffic to keep up with him. Do
you know Avoid linebackers, avoid this guy avoid, that guy
trying to get there to do that and usually there's really no
corners on Earth. That can like,
then that can overcome that,
usually the Patriots have, some guy there to help out in those
situations. I think because of Josh, Allen's running ability
and they dabbled in some other defense has the first time
around
where they didn't have that.
So they got to find a way in my opinion to change the plan
a little bit. And my biggest thing would be need to pay
a little bit more man to man. And what really?
He worked for them is when they played man-to-man, Mike and did
the things that we've talked about a lot was successful.
Defense, has man-to-man looks like they're going to Blitz
ends up only really being a four-man rush
to guys drop out there, looking for crossers or anything like
that coming their way that helps out the corner who's
chasing and all that when they did stuff like that. They won
the place.
They did that. And to me
that's what I think. They got to change a little bit more here.
That's not a scary. Being group with Buffalo. There's only one
guy to be scared about its digs. They should be able to
trust JC Jackson on him to a degree. And then
the other guys match up by some of the system, things that
I talked about, you know, but the Patriots played a few too many
zones in my opinion, the first time around zones
with a three-man rush
where, you know, he was patient enough to dance back there,
Josh out and go. Okay, it's three men. I'm gonna wait and
they're playing Zone and I'll look a little over here and get
Over there and then Zoom, I'll hit it to where they moved away
from and get that. And he just seems too good to buy that kind
of Defense. So that's where
I'll be interested to see the see where this goes
significant stat. As far as I'm concerned,
Josh Allen
in four of the last five games starting with the game. After
the Monday night loss, to the Patriots at home. In four of
the last five games.
He has had more rushing yards
than in. Any of the games before?
These last five games. Yeah 109 against Tampa Bay
64 in the rematch, with the Patriots
81 against Atlanta
63 against the Jets before that, his high. All season long
was 59. Yeah, in any one game.
So they started letting him run earlier to try to supplement
the passing game and also to make up for some of
the deficiencies in the passing game. You saw three
interceptions against the
Falcons in the game where he had those 81 runs. Rushing
yards and two touchdowns.
I think they better be ready to deal with Josh Allen
as a runner and when he runs it, yeah,
they better be ready to treat him like a running back. No
doubt. And again, you know, this is a slippery slope people
get triggered and up in arms when you talk about hitting
a quarterback like a running back, but if he's going to take
advantage of
being a running back,
The Patriots are going to be playing tough defense. I Grand
real Bell, checks going to be ready for whether or not they
can actually stop it. Remains to be seen. All right,
the Patriots offense. We saw not much from Mac Jones, the night.
It was windy and buffalo.
We saw more from Mike Jones and it wasn't very good when
the bills came to town. We talked about this earlier on PFT live,
but do we trust a Mac Jones offense as a rookie in his
playoff debut
against the Buffalo Bills?
I do. But it is long as it's not, you know, too much is
expected of them, you know, and again, if it gets too,
Kind of game where you go?
Wait, the bills are moving the ball, Josh Islands making
plays. And the Patriots got to score points to keep up.
I don't like that for the Patriots. If it comes to
a point where we go, where wow Mac Jones is,
he's going to have to
you know, complete somewhere around 30 passes today and they
need to throw for 350 yards. I don't feel comfortable with
saying the Patriots are going to win with that type of
formula and
it's going to still have to be through the Run game to me.
That's still there. Greatest Advantage. As A football team
and we know that's where you can take advantage of the bills
a little bit
and of the bills were better in that second matchup,
you know, they certainly were keyed into some of the things
that burn them the first time around. But you know,
the Patriots are going to have a few things off of that. Now
to make the bills have to second-guess some of that
approach, you know that but but that to me is really the still
the key to the game.
Can the bills, slow down the Patriots, Run game
and like slow it down to where they're Damien Harris can run
for 100. They just can't go off for 250 as a total team
that that can't happen. That means they're controlling
the clock. Josh Allen's on the sidelines and things aren't
going in their Direction,
you know, if they can just manage the Run game a little bit.
I think you see results like you saw the second game
where yeah, you know, the bills pass rush won the war and
the begin. The first mashup match up the bills. Secondary can
cover
these Patriot receivers who are not that explosive man-to-man
and give them issues
let alone with some
Cool ideas or McDermott. So,
to answer your question, I would say, no, they can't
expect him to carry the squad and just go off in this game.
Yeah, and they are going to have to run the ball and
control the clock and keep Josh. Allen on the sidelines,
to take some steam out of the offense. That way I'm gonna go
ahead and make my pic. Okay, get my pic. Okay, cool,
doing it.
This is pasta and meatballs light because I don't think
this is a major stretch thread. The conclusion, right? The Bill
Belichick finds a way, whatever it takes comes up with a game
plan. Coach has his guys up to execute it
that the Patriots given
their vast experience as a coaching staff.
With single-elimination settings and also just that
that that tightness, you know, when you're the favorite, when
you're the home team, when you're the one that's supposed
to advance and it's your Nemesis that you, you know,
it's like trying to beat your big brother and ping-pong even
though they won
at Foxboro earlier this year.
This is playoff football.
This is facing your big brother and ping-pong with a trophy on
the line or
the pursuit of a trophy on the line.
I think the Patriots win this one. And
you know, it reminds me a little bit
of giants bills from Super Bowl 25 where you neutralize The Keg
on offense by keeping it on the sideline area
and maybe you dare them to run the ball, even though they have
been running it better 22:19. Why not?
Well, I get lose to the Patriots by one point. Maybe
maybe wide right on a field goal and the game. Yeah. Maybe
that's how it goes down. Maybe a safety on Josh Allen from
Bruce Smith or something like that. He
do, you know, I Listen, this is scary too. I'm with you. This
game could go either way. There's no doubt.
I will say this.
The Patriots in the second game were too predictable.
They lost on first and second down too much. They were 1410
on third downs. And because of the predictability, that was
the issue. Mike like
too many like, Hey, we're in a running formation on first down
and we're going to run the ball and then of course, they ran
the ball and got no yards. There was too much of that.
They got to Zig when they zag a little bit. I'm going with
the bills here.
I think the bills are a little bit more. More of the
desperate, chippy team right now.
They'd expected to be on the King of the Hill here for
a little longer. They're not ready to relinquish it yet. I'm
not trusting a rookie on the road in the playoff game
bills, 2820 taking the victory.
All right, and the cover, and you know, I just remembered,
I picked the bills to win the Super Bowl to start the season
and usually, my Approach is as long as my Super Bowl winner is
still alive. I don't pick against them. Oh, well,
that was four months ago and I'd forgotten about