Hello and welcome to this programme where we focus on ASML's lithography technology.
In most people's knowledge, if you want to produce high-end chips like 7nm and 5nm, you
must use EUV lithography machine.
Wafers are exposed by extreme ultraviolet light, and the circuit diagram of the chip
is carved into the wafer.
The higher the chip manufacturing process, the greater the requirements for lithography
machine.
But have you ever thought you could make a 5nm chip without EUV lithography?
Japanese companies have developed new processes that may make this a reality.
What does it mean if the new process is a big success?
As is known to all, ASML is the world's most outstanding lithography machine manufacturer,
especially EUV lithography machine only ASML can produce, but when producing chips below
10nm, EUV lithography machine must be used.
Therefore, with only the EUV lithography machine, ASML is really invincible.
All chip enterprises have to seek it, because as long as they cannot buy its EUV lithography
machine, they cannot produce chips below 10nm.
Of course, ASML, as one of the world's top photoengraving machine enterprises, will certainly
not be so powerful that all chip enterprises will seek it.
It is so high that its business will not last long.
In business, what is important is to be friendly and make money.
Therefore, we can see that ASML has been very active in the Chinese market.
It has repeatedly stated that ASML is willing to provide all the technologies it can except
those limited by policies and regulations.
However, through ASML's repeated statements, we can basically confirm the fact that the
Chinese market is still quite important to ASML.
Then to what extent is it important?
ASML recently stated that the demand for ASML products in China is very strong in 2021-2022,
and the sales volume in The Chinese market is estimated to be about 2 billion euros (about
14.4 billion yuan).
Is 2 billion euros important to ASML?
Of course.
According to ASML's statement, in 2020, ASML's revenue was about 14 billion euros, and in
2021, the revenue is expected to increase 35% from 2020 to about 18.9 billion euros.
That's about 11 percent of 2021 revenue, which is certainly important.
More importantly, as the Chinese market gains momentum in chip manufacturing, more and more
fabs will be built in China, all of which will require lithography machines.
ASML previously predicted that China could account for 30 percent of ASML's sales after
2025, when China's chip self-sufficiency rate reaches 70 percent.
Therefore, ASML must attach importance to the Chinese market and not allow any loss.
On the one hand, it is afraid of being taken over by other manufacturers; on the other
hand, it is afraid that China will succeed in its own research and ASML will no longer
be needed.
The importance of the lithography chip manufacturing industry is self-evident, without lithography,
a single chip can not be made.
Without the EUV lithography machine, high-end chips cannot be produced.
However, while others are developing high-end chip industry chain with vigour and vitality,
Chinese experts have issued a different voice.
Hu Weiwu, chief designer of Loongson, believes that 14nm is enough without too high-end process.
Hu Weiwu this sentence caused no small waves in the industry, but also by many people refuted.
Think everyone else is doing 7nm, 5nm, why do we use 14nm.
Was it not trying or was it not trying?
So what happened?
What does Hu Weiwu mean by that?
In fact, combined with the current semiconductor environment in China, Hu Weiwu's words are
not unreasonable.
First of all, the 14nm process does cover most of the use of life, only a few consumer
electronics products use 7nm, 5nm.
For example, in the field of smart cars, 28nm and 14nm are already very high-end.
Because such products do not require too elaborate chips, they can be made into larger wafers,
which can hold more transistors.
Every square centimeter of the panel of smart phones is very precious, so the chip will
be made as big as the size of your fingernail, in the limited space to pursue more powerful
performance, naturally have higher requirements for the manufacturing process.
But the consumer electronics market is not all, 83% of the industry demand is concentrated
in the 10nm above.
At this point, 14nm is enough to meet most of the industry's needs.
Secondly, Hu Weiwu hopes that domestic semiconductor can develop in a way that enhances its strengths
and circumvents its weaknesses.
Others do 7nm and 5nm, and we should consider whether we can do it before doing it.
Not only to master the corresponding manufacturing process, to overcome a series of production
problems, but also to import the essential EUV lithography machine from abroad.
If you can't do both, you might as well use your strengths in mature craft.
Only when the market share of this part is occupied and sufficient revenue and profit
are secured can the company be able to invest in more advanced process research and development
projects.
The development of an industry needs to be gradual.
Even if ASML can freely ship EUV lithography machines at this time, Chinese enterprises
can purchase them smoothly.
But other high-end industrial chains may still need to import technology from abroad, and
then face the same supply problems.
Therefore, the best way is to strengthen the strength of the independent and controllable
industrial chain, do what you should do, and avoid being controlled by others.
The current semiconductor development model continues for decades, from design to manufacturing,
and then to packaging and so on a series of links have achieved a complete industrial
chain.
Many corresponding technologies are also based on this model, providing the basic guarantee
for the chip industry.
For example, the use of EUV lithography machine to make 5nm chips has become the consensus
of the industry development.
Even if it is not 5nm, to make chips with 14nm, 28nm and so on, you need to use lithography
machines.
However, to break this consensus, Kaixia, a Japanese giant, has developed a new semiconductor
process, using a new production technology to achieve mass production of chips.
What kind of technology is this?
According to media reports, Japanese storage giant Kaixia began exploring new processes
in 2017, partnering with semiconductor equipment maker Canon and mask maker DNP.
Specially developed a nano imprint microshadow technology (NIL).
At present, Kaixia has mastered the mass production technology of 15nm chip, and is trying to
develop mass production technology below 15nm, aiming at 5nm.
This NIL technology of Kaixia is of great significance.
Looking at the global semiconductor industry, kaixia has always followed the traditional
process manufacturing method.
After decades of research and development and the investment of countless resources,
we have finally completed a complete manufacturing process to solve various problems in the production
of chips.
Most importantly, 7nm, 5nm and other high-end processes are produced under this process.
This is enough to prove that there is no problem with the process.
At this time, Kaixia will develop a new process, which will undoubtedly break the existing
chip manufacturing process.
If the feasibility of this new process is confirmed, I am afraid that a new market pattern
will emerge in the semiconductor industry.
One test is whether high-end 5nm chips can be made without an EUV lithography machine.
The development of the semiconductor industry has basically reached a bottleneck, Moore's
law will definitely fail, and the physical limit of the chip will become more difficult
to break.
In the next few decades of chip manufacturing industry, it may be true that new chip technology
to create a market environment.
But only if you can go beyond existing manufacturing processes and do better than current chipmaking
models.
Therefore, the industry will pay more attention to a question, that is, can we make 5nm chips
without EUV lithography by relying on the NIL technology of Kaixia?
I believe this is also a topic that many people are concerned about.
First of all, compared with NIL technology and EUV ultra-ultraviolet technology, NIL
can bring lower energy consumption and reduce the cost of production equipment.
At a cost of $120 million, the EUV lithography machine is very expensive and has 100,000
parts and is very difficult to produce.
NIL technology can reduce equipment investment costs by 40% and power consumption by 10%.
Secondly, the precision of NIL circuit is comparable to that of 5nm, which is almost
the same as that of EXTREME ultraviolet light.
In principle, nanoimprint microshadows and EXTREME ultraviolet light have something in
common: they expose transistor circuits on silicon wafers in a way similar to photographic
printing.
The wafer is eventually divided into fingernail-sized chips for subsequent production.
Therefore, it can be roughly judged that NIL and EUV technology can form a certain substitution
relationship.
Theoretically speaking, after adopting NIL technology, 5nm chip can be made without EUV
may indeed become a reality.
The NIL technology developed by Kaixia and others may refresh the perception of the semiconductor
industry, where chip makers typically have to use EUV lithography to produce high-end
chips.
But the new technology kaixia has developed has the potential to break that rule.
What does it mean when a new process takes off?
I'm afraid ASML didn't expect it to happen so quickly.
ASML prides itself on the EUV lithography machine, which ASML is the only one capable
of producing, thus establishing its market monopoly on high-end lithography machines.
In the event that high-end chips can be produced without EUV lithography in the future, ASML's
market position can be expected to be impacted.
Just think about it, a device with lower price, energy consumption and cost can also produce
5nm chips, and enterprises of all parties will certainly choose to start.
Get rid of expensive, high-power EUV lithography machines.
Can ASML hold its current position without its trump card, EUV lithography?
The answer is self-evident.
Secondly, change the existing semiconductor production mode and provide new ideas for
the next chip era.
Moore's Law is coming to an end.
It is a recognized fact in the industry that it may not be possible to break through the
process below 3nm only by existing materials and technology.
Perhaps need to dig more future way out, among them the development of new technology, new
materials is necessary.
NIL technology could be one way to do that, if it works, changing the way semiconductors
are produced.
Provide new ideas for the development of the next chip era.
- The development of chip industry has overcome
a lot of difficulties, to a certain extent, it is not impossible to make new attempts.
The progress of science and technology is to move forward in constant exploration.
If Kaixia can really conquer 5nm, I am afraid that the semiconductor industry will usher
in a new era.
Where ASML goes from here is up to him.
Do you think NIL technology works?
That's all for this episode, thanks for watching, and we'll see you next time!