Gold is unchanged on the year.
So, yes, gold is had a punishing sell-off somewhat in coincident with
the stock market, but it's the only asset category.
This moment.
There's actually up on the year of the major normal, but you call
Asset categories.
So if we do get a vent like that, in this particular decline in the
stock market and it drags gold with it.
It's a buying opportunity.
First off stock market, stock market is a bubble.
It's the biggest bubble in US Stock Market history on a percentage
basis and on time duration, spent on the upside from 2009, loaded
late, last year.
Okay?
Parabolic blow off Market sponsored by the federal reserve's qy' and
monetary growth.
So we had inflation.
You don't like inflation whether that was it that the stock market can
be inflated to.
Okay, but that's okay.
They accept that.
Okay.
Now so they want to come in and fight inflation, but the problem is
that this is not 1980 when gold had just gone up Eightfold and price
and topped and it was coincident with vulgar raising rates, which had
already been underway, prior to him becoming head of the FED in 1979,
but God had an 88.
Fold game Commodities had a doubling over a three-year period.
Stock market was dead flat during that time.
So, if that time and well, people like to look back and go the FED
broke broke inflation.
Okay?
Yes, but those markets.
It had a massive, massive multi-year move gold had an Eightfold move
and the stock market was dead.
So the bubble back then, if you want to call it, that was gold.
Therefore, it doesn't shock us.
It's a technician.
The gold peek back in 1980.
It's talks later in 1982.
Finally woke up and started a bolt bolt red.
Now.
We have a similar situation where people think oh, Powell's doing the
volcker.
It's going to raise rates to stop inflation.
The problem is the bubble.
This time is not the commodity markets.
It's not goal goals.
Only doubled over the last five, six years, seven years, not Eightfold
Commodities have only recently, the last year or so turned out.
So, there are fresh annual momentum uptrend and they're clearly not
back to their
Eleven Heist people don't realize that you look at the Bloomberg
commodity index its trading in the 120s.
Well, it was a lot like hired net 2011.
So yes, it's up.
Yes.
It's gaining strength.
Yes, there's quote commodity inflation, but it's nowhere comparable to
the 2011 levels.
Okay.
What is the bubble?
This time around is the stock market and certain other related asset
categories.
Other markets that have gone up along the stock market, or Muni bonds,
how you'll corporate debt and treasury.
Bonds treasury bonds is you everybody seen the charts.
The technicians have put out a 30-year uptrending price dropping you.
Massively aged it's broken.
Okay.
So if you're a portfolio manager and you're looking down at your grid
of your portfolio components, you've got the stock market.
Well, okay, so far this year, year-to-date.
Let's do it.
The S&P is down.
I just calculated a few minutes ago 18 percent on the year nasdaq-100.
The leader index is now 28 percent on the year.
TLT.
Which is an ETF for long-term government bonds, 20 year plus duration
is down 20% of the Year.
Okay.
Again, these are asset categories that people like to get into how
you'll corporate debt down thirteen percent of the year.
Muni bonds down, 10% of the Year.
Okay, what's left?
Gold is unchanged on the year.
So, yes, gold is had a punishing sell-off somewhat in coincident with
the stock market, but it's the only asset category.
This moment is actually up on the year of the major normal.
But your call Asset categories, go being the one that most asset
managers would deem to be the alternative.
Okay.
Well, it's performing like an alternative.
Okay.
Now, it's recently been in sync with the stock market and I say
recently, I mean only
It's about mid-march prior to that.
It was moving somewhat opposite to the SP.
If you look at it be better of daily basis.
Okay.
Now it's somewhat in sync with the stock market.
So the question now is okay, is the stock market going to do another
October 1980 2008.
We had a 35% crash late in the bear Market or a March 2024.
You had a 35 percent drop in a matter of three weeks in the S&P.
And gold joint.
Coincidentally with that over a Six-Day period, late in the late in
that break is gold going to join in with further decline in the stock
market.
Okay, then the issue becomes.
Okay.
Well, this is stock market.
Going to get going to do a crash number on us here or is potentially
at a level where it might actually hold for a while and it could
generate a bear Market rally.
A genuine bear Market rental.
Okay, momentum.
Structural analysis, declared a major top in the NASDAQ 100.
Of the January close of this year.
It wasn't very far off the price size of December at that point and
the February close in the S&P generated, an annual momentum.
Long-term Trend cell signal in the SP for us shortly.
After issuing those cell signals and the market dropped into March,
then has some bounce.
It's now approaching the number on both indexes that we had specified
several months ago as a possible point.
Where in the decline
The bear Market Trend.
That's now begun.
We might actually get a period of pause in a rally.
Not just the one week valid but maybe even hold on it for a month or
two.
So I'll give it the opportunity.
If the stock market doesn't hold our support low.
And drops sharply.
It better do it quickly because otherwise it's not going to do it.
Then gold might participate.
But if you go back to those last two events and study them carefully,
the 2008 low in October, 2008.
And the low in March of 2020.
When gold did, it's tantrum in sympathy with the stock market, it
exploded after that.
You couldn't buy a pullback.
It just rocketed out of the hole, such that in 2008, for example, the
stock market.
Had to crash in October, but it didn't finish really going down until
March of the next year.
By February the next year goal was back to highs by February of 2009.
So it divorced the stock market.
Once that tantrum occurred.
Okay, look at March of two thousand, twenty the SP made a crash slow.
Then gold made a somewhat crash.
Like load wasn't newly, the dimensions of the SP drop within seven
days.
Gold was back to its site.
It took the SP five months to get back to its prior High gold rocket,
it back and seven trading days.
So if we do get a vent like that in this particular decline in the
stock market and it drags gold with it.
It's a buying opportunity.
The question is, are we really going to get that kind of tantrum
event?
Where you know, the word is sell everything.
And I don't know.
I do know where we need to hold on the stock market and we were
approaching that level now.
And frankly, my suspicion is you're going to hold it in which case
gold is going to hold as well.
And again right now we know look at the tape gold is up.
Yeah, 56 dollars will be here.
No other asset in the world is up of the Year.
Okay.
So anyway, that's the context.
We're looking at right now, does goal follow a further stock market
decline?
Where is the stock market about ready to put down at?
What to say?
Okay, now that everybody is bearish as seems to be the sentiment out
there.
I'm going to have a rally.
I don't know the answer, but I know where the zone now where the
decision is going to be made, I'll gold is help.
Pull back and not even traded down on the year.
Yet.
Silver has gone down on the ear and swept the price lows of the last
year and a half of trading.
And I urge everybody to go get a silver chart and like a monthly bar
chart or maybe weekly go back at least to the summer highs in 2020 and
silver approach $30.
If you'll notice about seven weeks after that, high silver dropped
under
Two dollars in a very sharp sell-off.
There's a dropped eight dollars in a matter of a month or so it then
went back up to 30 in early 2000.
21 came back down traded under 22 twice last year, but couldn't get
down to 21.
So you have three lows in the last year and a half under 2222 under
22, and we shot up to 27 month or two ago.
And today we traded down finally and blew out.
All those lows just below 22 by trading down to 21.
Okay, that's a price chart breakout and we don't have much respect for
it.
But if it's got any potency, it better exploit it now and just
collapse.
And if it doesn't, it's a trap.
It's what we call a bear trap.
If gold doesn't break down much, especially if it holds unchanged from
the year.
If the SP puts on the brakes and as they put on the brakes, all right
around these zones.
Jenna, thank you, seeing the end of the event right now, but the
caution being still that, if yes, if he gets out of hand and as it
gets out of hand, it could in turn continue to drag down gold and
silver.
That's the big question.