How would you perceive the massive change in the whole investing landscape
in just two weeks? It's quite something if we've gone too
far, too far. Have we priced in too much or we priced
in too little? That's all for you to answer.
Yeah, I think it's coming. Re-opening.
It's in the process. I think that they always say I myself
like a positive sides. We have like a news almost every day.
So that's like I'd definitely like to live up to market sentiment.
And also we say like how especially like how now like how lots of like how a
month policy must mean not only at the announcement level, but indeed it's
there. So like how colorfully relaxing laughs
this kind of rock does. And also, I think there is no way like
the China will not come back to there like a locked us.
So I think the direction is in the right direction.
But we also know the road to the past to the real opening is bumpy.
So we will also say we know currently forecast that maybe the peak, the first
wave of the peak will be a middle bit of the December tail to the maybe middle of
January. So like for the coming days, we might
hear like how more like he sees the rising before.
It's like how CAC enough DAX. So we think that yes.
To market sentiment is a very strong. And also it's already rallied to true 20
to 30 percent. But currently our position is still
neutral. Because I'll concede that we often say
car may be bumpy in passing in the coming months.
So what would it take then to push you from neutral to overweight?
Given we've already heard a lot like what else?
What else do you want to hear? Okay.
So I think to hear it's more like policy, policy, implementation.
So we want to see some evidence to come back.
So for the data, like when the like had the case really like go down and and
also we see the like how the consumption pickup because currently like how we say
the consumption, especially for the service side, it's only NIKKEI 30 to 50
percent of total ninety level. So we expect like always after the first
wave and that the number would pick up because now we see therefore that in
China for the different cities DAX the implementation, it's a different level.
For example, I call for Quan Jal and Huffy actually like I performed the
best. So yeah, I like house service side.
It's already back to the 80 percent up level and the taunting and the for sound
should Dow Jones. I think it's still very muted.
So I guess like how we want to see more evidence to come.
Wow. With a lot of tracking of data that you
have to do right where you are basically track Cedar City.
Yeah. Big city from your district and region
to region. Yeah.
I just wonder given what we saw that the credit data that came out in November
where you're still seeing that despite the policy stimulus that's been thrown,
credit demand is still quite weak out there.
When do you expect credit to actually rebound credit to you?
My view? I think I saw markets like how probably
will graduate pick up like a for the coming months.
I think that could be as early as Sunday, December, because we just
announced like how for the cuts and also for and I come more like a credit
supplies for the NIKKEI for the value chain of the property market.
And also we also expect to for the front loading of the LGB issue and CSA as
possible. So I think it's coming.
So we think that for the credit will gradually pick up and the till to maybe
ten point three to ten point five percent like our for the coming three to
six months. You know, the whole lockdown situation
to create this vicious circle, if you're really going to have you convert that
into a virtuous circle you want the politburo was saying you've got to give
the quotas, giving full play to the basic rule of consumption, which has a
lot of innuendo within it, does it not? Yes.
I think that this year, because for the GDP, it's already like CAC Sambora.
So it's always been case and will be I would be rather like a 3 percent.
So next year I would expect to have a 5 percent at least.
So we think that like how for this year, for the consumption side.
So we'll be like around the 1 percent or less than the 1 percent because I went
to the YTD data ISE only zero point six percent till October.
So we think the next year the consumption will be actually 5 percent.
So for the consumption contribution to GDP, gross is a fifty five percent.
So the additional 4 percent off the top of the consumption could contribute
additional 2 percent of GDP growth. So if we have a higher consumption.
GROSS So maybe high single digit gross, let's say 8 percent.
So I think that we can reach like a 6 percent easily.
So that's 3 then we think that next year's target could be set.
It's like more than 5. Maybe the government will say we set a
target above 5 percent. I think it's very likely we're we're
seeing a lot of stresses in the fixed income space.
Government bond yields have pushed up credit spreads and widened on share.
What what are you telling their wealthy clients of your bank?
As far as exposure to fixed income right now, because things are improving.
Yeah, I think globally we are still favor like Humboldt.
Strength. Because I can tell account by China.
So for the global bonds, I think it is now for the fixed income, actually
Canada gave like a very good high yield. And also at the same time for the stock
market, still very volatile. So I think therefore, that defensive
fixed income strategist still or like a top choice.
So for the China side, I think therefore for the CCP, I think currently is also
pickup. And also that could also attract to some
of my car investors, especially also given this for the CNY like I now
appreciate against the dollar. Actually, quite a lot.
So I think had to pick out my attractive, I guess like a bulls for the
US bond market as well as the stock market.
So in terms of preferences with stocks, bonds, currency, where do you lean more
towards now and what do you recommended to your clients?
Okay. Globally, we are more like a defensive w
do more prefer like how for the fixed income strategy.
China's. For China specific casting.
Currently we are locating the neutral on the stock side, but we still definitely
see the potential upside. And we also think that like NASDAQ, I
like how opportunity for the neutral then to me.
So we don't like a buy. So I think also not sell.
I think the way closely like how mortgage on the market and also some of
the investors already started so fit for the fixed income side that we also see
because now always a government to support.
So for the ISE bonds to also continue to be like attractive and also sell metric
would be bonds actually become more attractive.
So that would be, I think and always some of the like
developers on the whitelist and also become attractive and therefore the
single P, I think we are still very cautious.