local authorities in the liverpool
city region will move to the very high
alert level
from thursday until the start of
december
you must stay at home england will
return to a tiered system
of local restrictions there have been so
many different
interventions to try to reduce the
spread of covid
it's understandable that when cases do
fall politicians point to their measures
as doing the trick it's easy to credit
restrictions when they align with the
virus retreating
but it can be harder scientifically to
put a finger on what actually happened
in liverpool cases fell sharply after
tougher restrictions were
introduced but it turns out that cases
had already peaked
before the tougher restrictions came in
more recently
london's positive covid cases started
rising
three weeks into lockdown could it be as
important as the restrictions are
just as important or how we behave in
response to them
the actual regulations of course are
important only in so far as they
actually change people's behavior
and that's what's crucial so whether the
virus levels of infection are going up
or down
is a direct reflection of what people
are actually doing
and it doesn't mean that they're not
obeying the regulations
or indeed that they are what it means is
that they're behaving overall in a way
that allows the virus to spread
or it doesn't and that's a whole range
of different activities
both within our households within our
workplaces within our schools
that we all have to think about in terms
of managing this epidemic
the government has set out a series of
interventions that scientists say reduce
the spread of coronavirus and deaths
these are incorporated into the tiers
they include
closure of bars pubs cafes and
restaurants this will have a moderate
impact on kovid transmission
restrictions on outdoor gatherings has a
low impact
and the closure of schools also has a
moderate impact
cases have risen and then fallen at
different speeds in different places
for some we place too much emphasis on
easy to understand restrictions
such as eating out and not enough
emphasis on many people's
living situations the things that really
matter
how do you get your food how do you
survive if you
if you're in debt all the time how can
you possibly isolate
who looks after the kids when you go to
work
so you can keep your self-respect and
what happens if that person is age 65
and a bit frail and has had some
illnesses
these side of things are talked about a
great deal
less as compared to the middle class
aspects of life
one study prepared for sage found
perhaps counterintuitively
that lockdown made least difference in
reducing contacts in
areas that already had the highest
restrictions
lockdown in england on november the 5th
seems to have resulted in reductions in
mean contacts
made by individuals who were previously
under tier 1 or tier 2 restrictions
but appears to have made no significant
difference
to mean contacts reported by individuals
in tier three
clearly if pubs and restaurants are
closed then people can't go to them
but is it that specifically not going to
pubs and restaurants that has the effect
or do the announcements act more
generally as a trigger for people to
alter their behavior
one of the really striking things we've
seen in recent weeks
has been a decrease in infections
amongst people over 70
almost irrespective of tears so
one thing i think that's going on is the
more news you have about tears and the
more
worried it is about the disease
increasing numbers of elderly people
are isolating themselves and seeing
people less
so is the idea of christmas being a
complete free-for-all misplaced
majority of people are expecting to be
very restrained and if they are
then we should see that reflected in the
levels of cases and the number of
hospitalizations
that accumulate over christmas and
beyond it's what people will do
that matters i think the most useful
thing that scientists and
public health officials can do is advise
people on on how to do
what they're allowed to do safely
so with behavior being so important the
question is how do you encourage people
to make the best decisions
to keep all safe