Welcome to the Climate and Water Outlook for autumn 2019.
Summer has been exceptionally warm and, apart from record-breaking rains in tropical Queensland,
has been very dry for large parts of Australia.
Autumn is also looking warmer and drier than average for many areas, with odds favouring
a delayed autumn break for the southern cropping season.
First, let's look at recent conditions.
Extended periods of extreme heat have dominated Australia's climate this summer, with widespread
heatwaves in December and January.
Summer 2018–19 was Australia's hottest summer on record—well ahead of the previous record
set in 2013.
In addition to the summer heat, much of Australia was drier than average.
This includes large parts of northern Australia, where a below-average wet season continues.
However, in tropical Queensland there was widespread flooding in early February
with extremely heavy rainfall—over 2 m in 12 days for some areas.
Even with heavy rains over tropical Queensland, many parts of eastern Australia continued
to experience drought conditions.
As a result, dust storms persisted throughout the summer.
Serious and severe rainfall deficiencies have continued in eastern and inland parts of the country.
The hot and dry conditions also resulted in many bushfires.
In Tasmania, fires which started around Christmas have burned more than 200 000 hectares so far.
The southern bushfire season certainly isn’t over yet, so please keep your bushfire plan up to date.
Lower-layer soils in eastern Australia are very much drier than usual—
particularly in areas that have been driest over summer, including southeast Queensland and
northeast New South Wales.
Dry soils also become prevalent across southern WA, after large areas had their driest January
in at least 20 years and also periods of extreme heat.
Many water storages are also much lower than at this time last year—particularly in the
Murray–Darling Basin, southern Victoria and along the New South Wales coast.
So what's driving our climate right now?
Ocean temperatures to Australia's west and southwest have been average to cooler than
average, potentially keeping fronts further south.
In the Pacific Ocean, the El Niño – Southern Oscillation [ENSO] is neutral.
However, ocean temperatures have been warming steadily over the past month.
This means our ENSO Outlook is at El Niño WATCH, meaning there's about a 50 per cent chance
of El Niño forming over the coming months—that’s double the normal risk.
The autumn outlook shows drier-than-average conditions are likely for much of northern
and eastern Australia—indicating a dry end to the northern wet season and dry start to
the southern cool season.
Timing for autumn break rainfall in southern Australia is likely to be average or later than average.
Looking at streamflows for February–April: Across Australia, low flows are likely at most locations.
But near-median and high streamflows are likely in some northern and eastern coastal regions.
In terms of temperatures: Autumn days and nights are very likely to be warmer than average.
This outlook, and very dry soils inland, means heatwaves may continue into autumn.
So in summary: Autumn is likely to be drier than average for northern and eastern Australia;
temperatures are likely to be warmer than average; low streamflows are likely at most locations;
and timing of the autumn break in southern Australia
may well be average or later than usual.
For more details, visit our website at bom.gov.au/climate/ahead.
You can also get updates via Facebook and Twitter.
Our first look at likely conditions for April–June will be available on Thursday 14 March.
For the Bureau of Meteorology, I’m Andrew Watkins.