For decades, the growth of artificial intelligence has fascinated scholars and scientists alike.
Today, intelligent machines aid and streamline our lives, but the next fifty or a hundred years
may yield even more powerful AI, which could elevate or transform our species. If humans
do create sophisticated, super-intelligent machines, how will the growth of artificial
intelligence affect the future of humanity? Over the last 20 years, global interest in AI
has steadily increased. Universities, government agencies, and wealthy investors are pouring
billions of dollars into AI-focused projects and research groups.
Already, in the early 2020s, almost every industry uses intelligent, context-dependent machines,
called narrow or weak AI. In manufacturing, narrow AIs work alongside humans in factories.
In hospitals, virtual nurses monitor vital signs and analyze patient data. In fact, entire
industries, like digital marketing, rely on data collected by artificially intelligent software.
With so many industries seeking newer, faster technologies, the production of narrow AI
continues to grow. On smartphones and computers, intelligent machines are already woven into the
fabric of our lives, but these machines capture only a small fraction of what narrow AI can do.
In the next 20 years, leaders in the field predict significant growth in the production and diversity
of narrow AI, thereby improving the communication and productivity of our society as a whole.
Some experts are optimistic about the future role of narrow AI as stepping-stones toward
a more advanced human society, but other experts worry humans will become over-reliant on machines.
For example, the advancement of narrow AI could transform the global workforce. By 2040, at least
50% of routine, quantitative jobs may be performed by narrow AI, but that number could climb as high
as 90%. Large companies are already replacing human workers with hundreds of thousands of
robots. As narrow AI becomes more popular and less expensive, many companies may reduce their human
workforce to a mere 10% of its current volume. These estimates foreshadow a bleak future for
humanity, but the growth of narrow AI also offers humans a unique opportunity. The loss of
repetitive, non-creative occupations may trigger a global re-education of the workforce. Average
workers may obtain higher-paying, bigger-picture roles — no longer responsible for basic processes
like construction or routine manufacturing. A higher density of machines will also require a
substantial increase in engineers, programmers, and repairmen. More and more workers will learn
how to maintain robots, create software, and speak the coded language of artificial systems.
Over time, the elevation of the workforce and the higher demand for skilled workers
may cultivate a stronger global economy, increasing wages, decreasing poverty rates,
and making higher education more accessible for the general population. The growth of narrow
AI could theoretically remedy lopsided political and economic systems by reducing the gaps between
socio-economic classes; but there’s no guarantee powerful AI will benefit the greater good.
The growth of artificial intelligence could just as easily destabilize our global economy,
radicalizing pre-existing hierarchies by catering to the extremely wealthy.
At the same time, the growth of narrow AI will increasingly intrude upon basic human freedoms,
therefore changing the relationship between humans and technology.
Already, digital privacy is a source of controversy around the world. For example,
social media algorithms collect, store, and share personal information, allowing machines to develop
intricate profiles and predict, with astounding accuracy, your needs, wants, and interests.
In the coming decades, the complexity of our machines may increase, but so will violations
of privacy and other basic freedoms. Suffice to say, narrow AIs are
impacting our society on a grand scale; however, these context-specific machines
pale in comparison to strong AI, also known as Artificial General Intelligence or AGI.
Unlike narrow or weak AI, which are restricted to a specific set of tasks, an AGI can generalize the
knowledge it learns to solve a variety of problems in a variety of contexts.
Research into the development of AGI is still broad and largely theoretical. Though humans
have created very intelligent machines — like IBM’s Watson, which is capable of learning
and processing language — nobody has created a system as intelligent as a human being. But some
leaders in the field do expect an important scientific breakthrough as early as 2050.
Before humanity leaps into the unknown world of strong AI, we must consider the ethics and
consequences of producing machines as smart as humans. Beyond the fantastic dystopias
displayed in the media, scholars do foresee real dangers in the production of strong AI.
Hypothetically, a machine capable of general intelligence could expand and
surpass the human mind. One day, that very same machine could achieve self-awareness,
though experts widely disagree on whether computers can ever be self-aware. If possible,
a sentient machine may outperform humans in every discipline, making humans irrelevant
in the shadow of our own creation. With the proper precautions, however,
AGI could launch our society and our species into an age of transcendent growth. But how do
we program super-intelligent, possibly sentient machines to protect the interests of humankind?
The Three Laws of Robotics, designed by author Isaac Asimov in 1942,
act as a fictional vehicle for this complicated issue. Instead of power or intelligence,
developers of strong AI should place more value on cooperation between humans and machines.
An AGI must be programmed to prioritize the safety of humans above all directives,
including the pursuit of knowledge and the protection of its own existence.
Even a human friendly AGI does not guarantee a healthy, lasting relationship between humans
and machines. Similar to the overproduction of narrow AI, the growth of strong AI could stifle
the agency, autonomy, and competence of humanity. If we rely on machines to solve our problems,
we may lose our creativity, our drive, and our sense of purpose. If humans become complacent in
a machine-driven paradise, we may abandon the aspirations that define our species.
In the growing field of artificial intelligence, a single breakthrough can affect our society on
a macroscale. Soon, sophisticated machines will spread, for better or for worse, to every industry
and every household in the world. As narrow AIs evolve into strong AIs, machines could one day
bring about the downfall of humanity; however, the same machines could better our social systems and
significantly improve our quality of life. Either way, humans are moving steadily toward a future
defined by intelligent machines, but one critical question remains: is the risk worth the reward?