YOU WERE OUT OF ORDER. >> YOU’RE ALL OUT OF ORDER.
>> WE’LL GET TO THE RAVE, STEVE
KORNACKI.
KORNACKI. MID-TERM ELECTIONS ARE SIX WEEKS
FROM TODAY AND THEY ARE ON THE
PRESIDENT’S MIND LAST NIGHT.
HE TWEETED IN ALL CAPS AT 10:38
P.M., QUOTE, REMEMBER THE
MID-TERMS.
MID-TERMS. JUST OUT THIS MORNING MSNBC
MARIS POLL IS OUT.
48% FOR KYRSTEN SINEMA.
NEW POLLING FROM NORTH FLORIDA
HAS THE DEMOCRAT ANDREW GILLUM
LEADING RON DeSANTIS.
47-43.
47-43. DEAD EVEN RACE IN THE STATES
U.S. SENATE CONTEST WITH 45%
EACH FOR SENATOR BILL NELSON AND
GOVERNOR RICK SCOTT.
PRESIDENT TRUMP TWEETED JUST A
FEW MINUTES AGO ABOUT THAT
REPUBLICAN PARTY SAYING
FAVORABILITY IS THE HIGHEST IT’S
BEEN IN SEVEN YEARS.
THREE POINTS HIGHER THAN
DEMOCRATS.
DEMOCRATS. REPUBLICANS ONLY ONE POINT
HIGHER THAN DEMOCRATS NOT THREE.
THE LATEST GALLUP WEEKLY
TRACKING POLL PUTS PRESIDENT
TRUMP’S WEEKLY RATING AT 40%.
16 POINTS BELOW DISAPPROVAL
RATING.
RATING. JOINING US AND MSNBC STEVE
KORNACKI, HIS BOOK "THE RED AND
BLUE, THE 1990s AND BIRTH OF
POLITICAL TRIBALISM" IS COMING
OUT.
OUT. >> THIS IS MUCH BETTER THAN HIS
LAST BOOK, "I’M MAD AS HELL I’M
GOING TO RIP YOUR HEAD OFF."
>> WHERE DOES THE ANGER COME
FROM.
FROM. >> I LIKE THE RED AND BLUE.
>> LOOK AT THOSE POLLS.
WHAT JUMPS OUT TO YOU.
>> ARIZONA CONFIRMS WHAT WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT, ARIZONA IS THE
MOST LIKELY PICKUP OPPORTUNITY
FOR DEMOCRATS.
FOR DEMOCRATS. THEY NEED A NET GAIN OF TWO TO
GET BACK THE SENATE.
YOU LOOK AT THE FOUR, THEY HAVE
A REALISTIC OR SOMEWHAT
REALISTIC SHOT.
REALISTIC SHOT. ARIZONA THEY HAD MOST
CONSISTENTLY THE LEAD.
FLORIDA IS INTERESTING BECAUSE
IT RAISES THE POSSIBILITY --
DEMOCRATS ABSOLUTELY LOVE ANDREW
GILLUM.
GILLUM. THEY MAY GET HIM ELECTED ON
GOVERNOR THE SAME DAY RICK SCOTT
TAKES OUT BILL NELSON FOR THE
SENATE.
SENATE. >> SO, HELP ME OUT.
THE STATES THAT CAN GO EITHER
WAY RIGHT NOW, EITHER WAY I HAVE
MISSOURI, ARIZONA, NEVADA,
FLORIDA, WEST VIRGINIA, INDIANA,
TENNESSEE, PERHAPS ON THE
OUTSIDE TEXAS.
OUTSIDE TEXAS. >> THIS IS THE WAY I WOULD LOOK
AT IT IF YOU HAD TO RANK THEM.
DEMOCRATS NEEDING A NET GAIN --
REPUBLICANS TRYING TO GET GAINS
HERE IN THOSE DEMOCRATIC SEATS.
NORTH DAKOTA.
NORTH DAKOTA. THE SINGLE MOST VULNERABLE
DEMOCRATIC IS HEIDI HEITKAMP IN
NORTH DAKOTA.
NORTH DAKOTA. BATTLE FOR NUMBER TWO IS BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND MISSOURI.
WHO IS MORE ENDANGERED.
NELSON OR McCASKILL.
>> McCASKILL IS McCASKILL.
>> SHE’S SURVIVED CLOSE RACES.
SCOTT IS A STRONG CANDIDATE.
THEN I THINK LOOK WE HAD A POLL
IN MONTANA.
IN MONTANA. SOME THINKING TESTER HAD
INFLATED HIMSELF.
INFLATED HIMSELF. POLL PUT HIM UP ONLY TWO.
LOOK AT THE LEAD IN THAT STATE,
MONTANA, INDIANA SORT OF YOUR
NEXT RUN.
NEXT RUN. THEN WEST VIRGINIA ON PAPER, YOU
KNOW, JUST BECAUSE IT’S A BIG
TRUMP STATE.
TRUMP STATE. MANCHIN HAS PROTECTED HIMSELF
PRETTY WELL.
PRETTY WELL. JUST ARIZONA, TENNESSEE, NAVY
AND MAYBE TEXAS FOR THE PICKUP.
IF THE DEMOCRATS LOSE TWO FROM
THAT FIRST COLUMN THAT I GAVE
YOU THEY NEED TO BE GAINING
FOUR.
FOUR. >> JOHN HEILEMANN WE KNEW ALL
ALONG THEY HAD TO RUN THE BOARD.
BUT IF IT’S A WAVE ELECTION.
IF IT’S A BIG BLUE WAVE ELECTION
THEN YOU HAVE, YOU KNOW, TEN, 11
RACES THAT COULD GO EITHER WAY.
IF IT’S MORE SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE, WE MAY NOT KNOW WHO IS
RUNNING THE SENATE UNTIL
MISSISSIPPI HAS ITS SPECIAL
ELECTION THREE WEEKS LATER.
>> YEAH.
>> YEAH. THAT’S RIGHT.
THAT’S RIGHT. LOOK AS STEVE KORNACKI KNOWS
THIS MAP HAS ALWAYS BEEN
DIFFICULT FOR DEMOCRATS, IT’S A
HISTORICALLY DIFFICULT FOR
DEMOCRATS.
DEMOCRATS. MAYBE THE MOST CHALLENGING MAP
THAT WE’VE EVER SEEN IN AN OFF
YEAR OR IN A MID-TERM ELECTION
ON THE SENATE SIDE SO DEMOCRATS
DO HAVE TO HAVE A BIG GIANT
WAVE.
WAVE. WE’RE NOW IN THIS INCREDIBLE
MOMENT AS WE’VE BEEN DISCUSSING
EARLIER IN THE SHOW, WE’RE
LOOKING AT THURSDAY RIGHT NOW.
TWO BIG THINGS COULD HAPPEN.
ONE HOW THE SUPREME COURT
NOMINATION PLAYS OUT IS GOING TO
DIRECTLY AFFECT ONE OF THE
CENTRAL DYNAMICS OF THE VOTING
BEHAVIOR THAT WE’RE LOOKING AT
IN THESE MID-TERMS WHICH IS HOW
WOMEN VOTE ACROSS THE COUNTRY IN
ALL OF THESE STATES AND
CERTAINLY AT THE HOUSE LEVEL IN
A LOT OF KEY DISTRICTS.
REPUBLICANS ARE, YOU KNOW, THE
PRESIDENT DECIDES HOW HE HANDLES
ROD ROSENSTEIN, HOW REPUBLICANS
DECIDE TO HANDLE BRETT KAVANAUGH
AND WHAT THE FALLOUT IS FROM
THAT.
THAT. THESE ARE LIVE ISSUES THAT COULD
CONTRIBUTE EITHER QUELLING THE
WAVE OR MAKE IT LARGER IF IT
EXISTS.
EXISTS. >> MY FAVORITE QUOTE IN POLITIC,
FORMER ILLINOIS SENATOR PAUL
SIMON SAID WHAT DID YOU LEARN IN
ALL YOUR YEARS IN POLITICS.
I LEARNED A LOT OF TIMES WHEN
YOU WIN YOU LOSE AND WHEN YOU
LOSE YOU WIN.
THIS KAVANAUGH NOMINATION LINES
UP MORE ALONG SORT OF THAT
THINKING THAN ANYTHING I’VE SEEN
IN RECENT HISTORY.
IF REPUBLICANS GET THEIR WAY, IF
KAVANAUGH IS STEAM ROLLED
THROUGH AS MITCH McCONNELL SAYS,
THAT’S AN AUTOMATIC MOTIVATOR
FOR EVERY DEMOCRATIC WOMAN,
EVERY INDEPENDENT WOMAN, AND A
HELL OF A LOT OF DEMOCRATIC MEN
AND WOMEN WHEREAS IF DEMOCRATS
BLOCK KAVANAUGH, THAT’S AN
WAKENING ON THE RIGHT, I THINK
AND A LOT OF ANGRY MOTIVATED
PEOPLE SAYING WE’RE GOING TO
THROW ALL THE DEMOCRATS OUT.
>> I HEARD THE ARGUMENT THAT IF
THE REPUBLICANS DON’T GET HIM
THROUGH THAT DEPRESSES
REPUBLICAN TURNOUT BECAUSE THEY
WILL SAY LISTEN IF YOU CAN GET A
SUPREME COURT JUDGE IN WE DON’T
WANT TO TURN OUT.
I THINK IT GALVANIZES THEM THEY
HAVE TO HOLD ON TO THE SENATE.
THEY COULD BE HAVING THIS AGAIN.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THAT LIST,
STEVE, TO WHAT EXTENT ARE EACH
OF THESE LOCAL RACES AND TO WHAT
EXTENT CAN THEY TELL US
SOMETHING ABOUT THE NATURE OF
THE WAVE ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE
IF THERE IS ONE.
I’M THINKING FLORIDA IN
PARTICULAR.
PARTICULAR. ANDREW GILLUM GETS THE
NOMINATION.
NOMINATION. FAR LEFT CANDIDATE IN DEMOCRATIC
TERMS.
TERMS. THEN YOU LOOK AT PREDEBREDESEN W
A MORE CONSERVATIVE LEADING
DEMOCRAT.
DEMOCRAT. WILL WE LEARN SOMETHING WHERE
THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS GOING
FROM EACH OF THESE RACES?
>> THERE’S A COUPLE OF
INTERESTING TEST THERE’S.
ONE IS IN FLORIDA WHERE IF RICK
SCOTT -- THE DISPARITY YOU’RE
SEEING IN THESE POLLS WHERE
GILLUM IS LEADING THE RACE FOR
GOVERNOR AND SCOTT IS LEADING
THE RACE FOR THE SENATE THE BIG
SWING IS NONWHITE VOTERS.
RICK SCOTT IS PERFORMING FIVE
POINTS BETTER IN THIS POLL.
RICK SCOTT IS PERFORMING FIVE
POINTS BETTER AMONG HISPANIC
VOTERS THAN RON DeSANTIS.
ALSO PERFORMING A COUPLE POINTS
BETTER AMONG BLACK VOTERS THAN
DeSANTIS IS AGAINST GILLUM.
SCOTT MADE A VERY CONCERTED
EFFORT HAVE HURRICANE MARIA TO
WIN OVER PUERTO RICO.
HE TOOK MANY TRIPS TO PUERTO
RICO.
RICO. HE DISTANCED HIMSELF FROM
PRESIDENT TRUMP WHEN HE MADE THE
STATEMENTS ABOUT THE DEATH
CAMPS.
CAMPS. BUT YOU ARE PERFORMING HALF A
DOZEN POINTS FOR INSTANCE AMONG
HISPANIC VOTERS.
HISPANIC VOTERS. THAT CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
>> AS A FLORIDA NATIVE OR CLOSE
TO FLORIDA NATIVE, FLORIDA
RESIDENT, HOW SHOCK.
I’VE BEEN CHOKD THAT GILLSHOCKED
AHEAD OF DeSANTIS.
THAT’S THE ONLY STATE WHERE
DONALD TRUMP IS STILL DOING
WELL.
WELL. >> WE HAVE TO REMEMBER WHAT WE
SAW IN 2016, I REMEMBER STANDING
A FEW FEET OVER ON ELECTION
NIGHT LOOKING AT THOSE EARLY
NUMBERS FROM FLORIDA AND SAYING
DEMOCRATS ARE GETTING WHAT THEY
NEEDED OUT OF THOSE THREE
COUNTIES.
COUNTIES. SUDDENLY YOU SAW A SURGE IN THE
OTHER PART OF THE STATE AND
DeSANTIS HAS ALIGN HIMSELF SO
CLOSELY WITH TRUMP AT LEAST
UNTIL A LITTLE BIT OF FRICTION
IN THE LAST WEEK.
YOU WONDER WITH THAT LATENT
SURGE STILL BE OUT THERE?
RIGHT NOW GILLUM EVERY POLL I’VE
SEEN.
SEEN. >> THE TWO EVENTS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE DEFINING FOR THE
MID-TERMS, THE KAVANAUGH
HEARINGS AND THEN ROD
ROSENSTEIN.
ROSENSTEIN. CERTAINLY THE WHITE HOUSE IS
NERVOUS ABOUT HAVING TO BE
AGGRESSIVE ABOUT KAVANAUGH, SO
FEARFUL ABOUT WHAT THAT COULD DO
FOR FEMALE VOTERS, HOW THAT
COULD ENERGIZE DEMOCRATS.
GENE ROBINSON, IF ROD
ROSENSTEIN, DEPUTY ATTORNEY
GENERAL MEETS HIS FATE ON
THURSDAY AND IS DISMISSED THAT
WILL FURTHER FIRE UP DEMOCRATS.
HOW DOES IT PLAY THE OTHER WAY?
HOW DO YOU SEE HIS FATE WHETHER
HE STAYS IN THE JOB OR IS FIRED
HOW DOES IT PLAY WITH
REPUBLICANS?
REPUBLICANS? WILL THAT TURN THEM OUT TO THE
POLLS?
POLLS? >> THAT’S A GREAT QUESTION, AND
I MEAN I THINK IT PROBABLY PLAYS
WELL TO THE CORE TRUMP BASE.
BUT REPUBLICANS NEED MORE THAN
THE CORE TRUMP BASE IF THEY ARE
GOING TO HOLD EITHER HOUSE OF
CONGRESS.
CONGRESS. THEY NEED NOT JUST THE CORE
BASE, THEY NEED THE REST OF THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY AND THEY NEED
SOME INDEPENDENTS.
SOME INDEPENDENTS. I THINK TRUMP HAS PREPARED HIS
BASE FOR ANYTHING HE WOULD DO UP
TO AND INCLUDING FIRING ROBERT
MUELLER AND PUTTING US INTO THE
FULL BLOWN CONSTITUTIONAL
CRISIS.
CRISIS. ONE OTHER INTERESTING THING I
THINK THAT WE SEE IN STEVE
KORNACKI’S NUMBERS AND STEVE TRY
NOT TO BE SO ANGRY, REALLY
SHOULD, YOU KNOW, JUST TAKE A
STEP BACK AND A DEEP BREATH.
ONE THING WE SEE IN THOSE
NUMBERS, I THINK, IS THAT, YOU
KNOW, IF THERE’S GOING TO BE --
WE TALK ABOUT A WAVE OR NO WAVE.
IF THERE’S A DEMOCRATIC WAVE,
MINORITY VOTERS AND WOMEN VOTERS
WILL BE MOTIVATED TO VOTE.
THEY KILL COME OUT AND DO IT
BASICALLY.
BASICALLY. YOU SEE IT IN FLORIDA WHERE
MINORITY VOTERS ARE APPARENTLY
MOTIVATED AND HAVE, YOU KNOW,
ARE GOING TO VOTE, GILLUM COULD
WIN.
WIN. THOSE OTHER ENDANGERED DEMOCRATS
IN THE SENATE NEED TO FIND A WAY
TO ENERGIZE THAT MINORITY VOTE,
ENERGIZE THAT WOMEN’S VOTE AND
THAT’S THE WAY THEY SURVIVE IF
THEY DO.
THEY DO. >> ALL RIGHT STEVE KORNACKI AND
EUGENE ROBINSON, THANK YOU BOTH
VERY MUCH.
VERY MUCH. >> WE’RE GIVING YOU A GIFT
CERTIFICATE FOR A SPA DAY JUST
SORT OF EASE THE TENSIONS.
>> I APPRECIATE THAT.
THE ANGER MANAGEMENT CLASS
HAVEN’T QUITE BEEN GETTING IT
DONE.
DONE. >> WE’RE GETTING YOU A LIFETIME
GIFT CERTIFICATE TO BLISS AND