in both Beijing and Washington. China has warned of serious consequences
if Pelosi visits the self governing Island nation that China claims
as its own territory. If she goes through with their plans, Pelosi
would be the highest ranking U. S official to visit Taiwan and over
25 years at a time when U. S China relations are on shaky ground,
the White House's expressing concern
I'm the Nevadas has the story.
A city at a standstill as air raid sirens echoed through the empty
streets of Taipei.
Long planned preparing for a potential Chinese invasion. But they
come as Taiwan also prepares for a potential visit from US House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi News met with a stern warning from Chinese officials
opposed the U. S side clings obstinately to its misconduct. China
is bound to take resolute and powerful measures to safeguard its
national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
All consequences entailed from that should be completely born by
the United States.
When asked about a possible Pelosi visit last week, President Biden
was not supportive. Military thinks it's not a good idea right now.
But
I don't know what the status of it is.
Pelosi, a staunch China critic and vocal Taiwan supporter, was asked
about the president's remarks the following day. The inference to
drawn from your comment is that my going there is problematic. I
think what the president was saying is the
Maybe the military was afraid of point would get shot down or something
like that. To date. Her office has not officially confirmed or denied
a possible trip.
Communist China has never controlled democratic Taiwan and considers
it a breakaway province. Beijing opposes official relations between
Taipei and Washington. Taiwan lies just 100 miles off the coast of
China and controls islands near the mainland. And since Russia invaded
Ukraine in February, Taiwan fears that China could follow suit.
President Biden has repeatedly said the US would respond militarily
if China attacked Taiwan. Are you willing to get involved militarily
to defend Taiwan? If it comes to that? Yes, you are.
That's the commitment we made
that goes further than existing policy. Taiwan relations acts as
America will enable Taiwan to defend itself this week's annual Taiwanese
military drills involving naval vessels fighter jets and overseen
by president saying when came as China has dialed up military activity
around Taiwan.
In June. Chinese Defense Minister Wei Feng, her pledge to quote crush
any independence effort by Taiwan issued this message to the US if
someone forces a war on China
will not flinch.
Should Speaker Pelosi visit she would be the highest ranking U. S
official to visit Taiwan since 1997
For more on this. Now we get to views. Susan Shirk is the chair of
the 21st Century China Center at University of California in San
Diego. She was deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asia
and Pacific affairs during the Clinton administration, and Daniel
Blumenthal is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
He was senior director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia at the Defense
Department during the George W. Bush administration. Welcome to you
both. Thank you for being here, Susan, I'll start with you. You have
said you do.
Don't think that Speaker Pelosi should go to Taiwan. Why is that?
What are the risks fear if she does go
Well, I am really worried about it. I'm losing sleep about it, Uh,
worrying that it might spark a military crisis that would threaten
Taiwan's 23 million people and could very well tried in U. S forces.
So why is it so risky?
It's because of the situation. The domestic situation in China right
now is extremely tense in the months leading up to the 20th party
Congress when she Jinping hopes to get an unprecedented third term.
Hmm. When the party elite is gathering at the summer retreat at bay,
de Ha
So the risk is that of visit by Speaker Pelosi would be viewed as
a humiliation of she Jinping's leadership.
Including by him himself. Let me bring in Dan Blumenthal here then
Dan Dan, do you share Susan's concern? Could this provoke some kind
of response from China? We should note. It's unusual for President
Biden to cite the military in saying That's not why he believes it's
a good idea. Right now. What do you make of that? Well, it's unfortunate
that he
Made those comments because
Obviously, the houses A and and senator, different branches of government
and speaker Pelosi has every right to visit. Uh,
Um And and, of course, President Biden should have been able to keep
the option open, which is to tell the truth of China, which is he
doesn't have any control at the end of the day. Over what Speaker
Plus you guys, But I do not agree. I think that she should go. I
believe she has to go at this point. I think anything less than that
would be just invite more intimidation, more bullying.
There's never a good time, Xi Jinping. The reason we're even having
this debate is because she Jinping and his PLA has been have been
stepping up their coercion of Taiwan trying to intimidate us and
trying to intimidate Taiwan and break the will of the Taiwan people.
Susan what about that now? If she doesn't go? Does it look like that
she's giving into Chinese intimidation? What message would that send?
Well, I think it would
Indicate that were being prudent.
And that sure everyone wants to stand up.
Uh, again, She Jinping's China now.
But given the the misjudgments that she himself has made in the last
couple of years, such as his draconian approach to covid cracking
down on the private sector, aligning with Russia and the Ukraine,
we can be confident that he's going to
Uh, behave in a prudent manner. And he could really, uh, launched
some kind of serious military.
Response against Taiwan, so it's important for us to behave prudently.
Uh, Speaker Pelosi should make clear that this is her decision. It's
not President Biden's decision because, of course, there are going
to be a lot of domestic political consequences in the United States.
There'll be a lot of
Criticism from Republicans and some Democrats that Biden is caving
into China chest.
Um, as we heard, so, um, I think she needs to take this on herself.
Of course. She's the Democratic speaker of the house. She wants the
Democrats to do well, in the midterm and in 2024. So, uh, you know,
this is a time to
Just postponed. You're not going simply say, you know, timing isn't
right for me. I'm not going down. What about that? Given domestic
pressure here at home? Given the unpredictability? I'm not sure if
you share that of what we could expect in the way of a response from
China. Is there a merit to postponing that trip?
Yeah, There's no merit to it. In fact, if it was done now, given
what leaked out, it would no spin would fix the fact that it would
look like a climb down that we're giving into China's increased rhetoric.
It's increased bullying nothing. Nothing could invite more intimidation,
more bullying more interference into our own democratic processes
than that sort of action.
Ah, In fact, because it's such a bipartisan issue. I think the speaker
might be well served to take a lot of high ranking Republican. There's
great bipartisan support for this. China is trying to redefine the
one China policy and we cannot let them do that. We have a one China
policy. Uh, this is completely consistent with the one China policy.
Every day that intrudes upon China Taiwan's air defense zones everyday
that claims that the waters around Taiwan a its sovereign territory
is a day that it's coercing Taiwan and it's violating its commitments.
To us. It's fundamental commitment is a peaceful resolution of the
Taiwan issue and is violating
Those fundamental commitments. We're not changing policy Speaker
Pelosi's visit would be consistent with years of precedent, Dana
just a few seconds we have left. I have to ask. Are you confident
that her trip would not provoke any kind of escalation from China?
Well, China is looking to escalate whether she goes or not, so it
would probably lead to to China, claiming the airspace over Taiwan,
doing things of that nature of flying over Taiwan for the first time,
that sort of thing, so China's going to escalate China's incremental,
creeping escalation, it's creeping undermining of Taiwan's sovereignty
and political will is going to continue.
Whether she goes or not. If she goes, I think will be in a better
position to stand up to this kind of volume. Happy following for
sure. A big potential trip we should say has not been confirmed or
denied. And we'll be following it for sure. I thank you both for
your time. Susan Shirk and Dan Blumenthal. Thank you.