climate change is a hoax and the
electric vehicle is an abomination
someone once told me that to capture an
audience's attention you need to offend
them and what better way to offend
people than to denounce climate change
because if there's one thing the world
may unanimously agree upon is that we
don't like it to be here in the future
so now that I have your attention let me
revisit those opening comments I do
actually believe in climate change but I
do have a problem with the way we define
electric vehicles so this talk will
still offend some people I can almost
see the YouTube comments on this video
now it isn't pretty but this talk is not
about demonizing the electric vehicle
unfairly
I absolutely believe they are the future
of personal transportation they do a
fantastic job at moving pollution our
identity populated cities they're fun to
drive and you can get free parking too
sometimes and I know this because I
owned an electric vehicle for three
years and it was a great car they will
absolutely be a place for the electric
vehicle in our future but not today
let me start with a question there are 1
billion passenger cars on the world's
rows today if I gave you a button which
would turn them all into electric
vehicles would you push it the problem
of climate change is a global one it is
believed to be caused by increasing co2
concentrations in our atmosphere if you
put a box around the earth and measure
the gas is trapped inside that box you
would indeed find co2 and that co2
levels are rising what is causing co2
levels to rise well
one source is the cars and trucks that
we drive
emit co2 from the tailpipe and the way
the industry currently measures this co2
is like putting a special box around the
vehicle
and measuring what's inside the box
society's solution to the problem is the
electric vehicle because if you put a
box around the electric vehicle and try
and measure co2 you won't find any so
based on this way of measuring co2 we've
decided to call these zero emissions or
we call these dirty but let me show you
why this is wrong
consider that instead of changing all
vehicles into electric vehicles we
instead change them into horses now a
horse breathes it in air and it breathes
out co2 so if you put a box around the
horse you would measure co2 if you rode
that horse the same distance as you
drove the car you would find something
quite shocking the horse emits as much
co2 as a Corvette so you can see based
on this way of measuring co2 our only
possible conclusion is that if we
changed all cars into horses we will be
emitting as much co2 as 1 billion
Corvettes and that doesn't sound very
good for the environment does it but as
you sit there I'm sure something deep
inside of you is saying that doesn't
sound right
and you'd be correct of course if we
changed all cars into horses our climate
would be better
and here's why it would be better you
see even though the horse breathes out
co2 into the atmosphere that co2 is then
absorbed by plants and converted back
into oxygen which the horse breathes in
again and so you see the co2 is in a
cycle and because it is in a cycle it
doesn't increase
in contrast the car is different because
with the car we dig all out of the
ground we burn it and we produce co2 and
it isn't in a cycle so it is increasing
so you were right to be skeptical but
based on how we currently measure co2
you could not possibly have come to this
conclusion without doing this type of
analysis let's go back to the electric
vehicle remember the way we quantify co2
is to measure it from the tailpipe but
the electric car doesn't burn fuel but
it does use electricity so we have to
look at where that comes from a large
proportion of our electricity comes from
coal
now we dig coal out of the ground in
large quantities we then burn it in
power stations which produces co2 you
can see there is no arrow along the top
of this diagram that co2 is not in a
cycle and it is increasing but you
couldn't possibly know this by only
measuring the vehicle's tailpipe what we
need to do is expand our imaginary box
to include everything and coal isn't the
only way we generate electricity we also
burn natural gas and we burn oil these
to produce co2 now you might be sitting
there and saying hang on a minute I
charge my electric vehicle from solar
panels on my roof so that's ok right
well for you maybe
and many developed nations are moving
away from coal and natural gas to
renewable energy sources the co2 is a
global problem so let's have a look at
things on a global scale how much of the
world's electricity is produced by
burning fuel which creates co2 it's
about two-thirds so you can see when you
plug your electric vehicle in you are
probably producing co2 it just isn't
being measured you see the automotive
industry
has cleverly found a way to move the
problem not solve the problem but is the
electric vehicle really worse well to
understand if it's worse we need to look
at how much emissions are produced
during the life of the vehicle the
average age of a vehicle before it gets
scrapped is around 180 thousand miles
you can see the conventional vehicle
produces about 30 tons of co2 over its
lifetime how is the electric vehicle
look pretty good right because some of
that electricity comes from renewable
sources and because the electric motor
is far more efficient than the internal
combustion engine it produces less co2
but there is a problem with this graph
this graph says that at zero miles zero
co2 has been produced and you think
about that for a second it means the two
cars have magically appeared in the
showroom out of thin air in reality a
huge amount of co2 is produced just
making a vehicle because you have to dig
raw materials out of the ground
transport them to factories where they
can be formed into car parts before
finally being assembled into vehicles
each step requires energy and so we
create co2 so you can see the
conventional vehicle comes to the
showroom having generated about six tons
of co2 and now this is the critical part
making a battery isn't easy the
materials required are harder to find
and mating in battery cell requires a
huge amount of energy so the battery
vehicle comes to the showroom having
generated about 12 tons of co2 and you
can see you'd have to drive it around 80
or 90 thousand miles before you offset
that co2 penalty but it is better in the
end so the electric vehicle still looks
good here as well right well this is row
gets interesting
you see the conventional vehicle has a
400 mile range well the electric vehicle
in this example has a 125 mile range now
125 miles might be enough for some of
you but most of us want more we'd like
to be able to drive great distances
across the states or if you're here in
Texas you might just want to get to the
next city so really we need to be
comparing a 400 mile range electric
vehicle and as you may have guessed a
longer range requires a larger battery
which means a larger co2 penalty and now
you start to see the problem over its
expected lifetime it has emitted more
co2 than the conventional vehicle it has
contributed more to climate change in
the conventional vehicle and that is the
crux of the problem it has produced more
co2 but we've measured none and so
society is happy to continue to call
these zero emissions but that is
dangerous and unproductive but there is
something we can do today using
technology we have today which will make
a difference today and that is to look
at hybrids hybrids are far more
efficient than conventional vehicles
because at low speeds where the engine
is inefficient
the electric motor compensates and says
don't worry engine I've got this you
stay turned off until we need you and
critically a hybrid has a small battery
so the initial co2 penalty is similar to
the conventional vehicle while the end
of life emissions are far lower in fact
to offset the co2 from the electric
vehicle you would need to drive it
around 450,000 miles before you offset
that co2 but again I don't want to
demonize the electric vehicle
I just don't think we should adopt them
today based on the way we generate our
electricity in the way we make our
batteries but how can we help the
electric vehicle meet its potential well
we need to invest in making our
electricity generation from renewable
sources around the world so that when we
plug our electric cars in we know there
is no co2 being generated we can do this
by building solar and wind farms if we
did that then you can see the difference
we can make to the emissions created
during the life of the vehicle we can go
further to we can invest in new battery
technologies battery production
techniques to help offset that initial
co2 penalty and you so you can see the
potential of the electric vehicle you
can see what it could look like in the
future it's just as a society we are
trillions of dollars and decades away
from achieving this but we will get
there one day but what we don't want to
do today is mislead people into buying
electric vehicles by falsely calling
them zero emissions what we need to do
instead is because we continue to invest
in the internal combustion engine
it hasn't met its maximum potential yet
and we can look into renewable fuels
this is where we combine water with the
waste co2 to create fuels for our
vehicles now there's a good reason we
don't do this today it requires a huge
amount of energy to do this but if all
that energy comes from renewable sources
then it isn't a problem for the climate
so you see we've created a new co2 cycle
and you can see how fantastic that looks
for the hybrid vehicle over the lifetime
emissions even without renewable fuels
we should still consider buying hybrids
today if we want to impact climate
change now in the future there will be
conventional vehicles hybrid vehicles
and electric vehicles where they make
sense the future is not just electric
the future is eclectic so let me leave
you with this if I gave you that button
based on what you now know would you
push it thank you
[Applause]