Hello this is the sugarcane rainfall outlook for Far North Queensland updated on the 27th of April 2023.
This Outlook will be covering growing areas from Mossman to the North Johnston River around
Innisfail and then inland to the Atherton Tablelands. We'll look first at recent conditions and
then the rainfall outlook for the coming fortnight and then the next six months out to October
On the next slide on the right there is a map showing Far North Queensland sugarcane growing areas.
Now on the left we see rainfall totals for the month of April so far to the 25th and as
you can see from the purple then blue dots in the map below, quite a few areas have seen more
than 200 to 400mm and some places in excess of 500mm so far this month.
For some of these sites though, a lot of that rainfall fell in just one day on the
24th. We did see some sites recording more than 300mm in the 24-hour period.
Areas to the north of Babinda have below average rainfall including Cairns but we did see above average rainfall to the south of that.
On the next slide we're seeing the chance of exceeding median
rainfall in May on the left hand side and then June to August on the right hand side.
In May, there's a roughly equal chance of exceeding median rainfall for Far North Queensland growing areas.
In June to August, we see an equal to moderate to high chance of exceeding median rainfall
particularly the further north you go, as you can see from these green shades appearing.
Next, model accuracy and this is based on past performance at that time of year roughly
looking at the percentage of time the model was correct. In May, median rainfall forecasts are
typically correct at 65 to 75% of the time as indicated by these darker green shades.
But, in June to August, we see a reduction in accuracy, typically correct 55 to 65% of the
time, as indicated by these lighter green shades and there is a reduction in accuracy inland.
Next, looking at the next fortnight, and it is looking drier across Far North Queensland
sugarcane growing areas. We are looking mostly at 25 to 50% chance of exceeding 25mm
each week for the next two weeks, so it is looking drier than what it has been.
Next, for the rest of May, we're looking at on the left hand side, the 50% chance of receiving at least
this amount compared to the historical median on the right hand side. As you can see eyeballing it
roughly looking to be similar to the historical median looking at these two different maps, or about
an equal chance of seeing rainfall close to the historical median for these growing areas.
On the left hand side we look at the high 75% chance and the low 25% chance on the right hand
side and a good way to think about this is that it is showing something similar
to the BOM rainfall app range, what we can expect for that middle 50 range. What you can
see, for example around the Cairns area, we are looking at a chance of between around
kind of 50 to 100 millimeters for the month of May, so definitely showing that 50 percent range there.
Next, looking at the month of June, and again on the left hand side, 50% chance of receiving
at least compared to the historical median on the right hand side and again similar to May, we
see an about equal chance of seeing rainfall close to the historical median for Far North Queensland sugarcane growing areas
but further south you go you can see quite a bit of difference between the 50 percent forecast and
the 50 percent historical median the further south you go. Next, looking at the 25 to 75% range, as
you can see on the map here and as we can see, we do see for example for Cairns in the month
of June, looking at between 25 to 100 millimetres as being the 50 percent middle range of rainfall.
Next, looking at the three months from June to August, the 50 percent on the left and the historical
median on the right hand side. Similar to May and June, we're seeing about equal chance of seeing
rainfall close to the historical median but potentially slightly wetter than usual,
particularly towards Mossman as we saw from those green maps earlier, just seeing that we
could see rainfall slightly above the median particularly as we head into July and August.
And the next slide does show the 25 to 75 percent range.
Next, we head to spring and at this stage it is too early to give a confident forecast
for spring and we will have updates to come giving further information.
These maps show the historical median based on data between 1991 and 2020 to give an idea
of what the median is showing and at this stage some international models indicate
average to possibly dry conditions for Far North Queensland from September.
And finally, short-term weather watch points - what we're looking at over the next seven to ten days.
On the left hand side we're looking at 24 hour rainfall to 10 pm on the Thursday 27th of April,
on the right hand side to Friday the 28th of April. As you can see here with that southeasterly wind we
are looking at showers continuing on Thursday but then we do see showers backing off from
Friday and we are expecting to see a drier run into the first couple of days of May but
as always, check the latest forecasts and warnings on the Bureau's website or on the BOM weather app.
That's it for this update. Be sure to send feedback through agriculture@bom.gov.au
That's agriculture@bom.gov.au and we'll see you for the next update. Thanks for listening.