I really want to know about these new Tesla variants, we have these new vehicles rated
on the EPA and we have these new vehicles coming off the line in Texas.
Some people think these are not the same vehicles.
To me, it is obvious that these new vehicles coming out of Texas, are the new ones Tesla
registered with the EPA.
i.e.
Texas Model Ys have a range of 279 miles.
Now surely, the new 4680 models would have to be tested by the EPA anyway, like right
about this time.
But we know how dangerous assumption is, it may appear obvious, and we think we might
have connected the dots, but can we know for sure?
Well one things for sure, we know Tesla are making cars at Texas right now.
How do we know, well we can actually see them.
Tesla have their new 4680 vehicles in the car park sitting there.
In fact they were initially covered, but the covers are now off, and we can see them.
PHOTOS Thanks to drone youtubers who keep up up to
date with the progress of the new factories, we are able to see photos of these new Model
Ys that have been made in the new Texas facility.
We can see the product.
Well if we an see it, then perhaps maybe we can work out what variation of model it really
is.
So let's see if we can compare these photos to match other Teslas.
Well they all look very alike.
It's not overly easy to tell, we can't read any model descriptions, such as dual motor
either.
But there is one element we can see.
Can you think of anything particularly distinguishable now I mention it?
The wheels.
We can see the wheels.
On closer inspect on the wheels we can definitely tell they are not the performance wheels.
The performance wheels are much darker, these wheels are more chrome.
The performance wheels have 11 spokes.
[photo2.png] These wheels have 7 spokes.
Therefore we can rule out any performance Model Y.
Which model comes with 7 spoke chrome wheels?
The Chinese standard range Model Y.
The wheels look identical.
I think we can agree that these are the wheels we are seeing in the photo of these cars in
Texas.
The Chinese Standard Range does have the option to also upgrade the wheels too, to Tesla's
20" induction wheels.
Looking at the cars they all appear to have the same wheels.
There are some vehicles that are still covered, but some of the covered ones are also revealing
the wheels are the same.
Therefore it would appear that all these vehicles have the standard range wheels.
What about the Long Range then.
Well the default wheels on the Long Range, when you go to the web site, are actually
the induction wheels at the additional $2,000.
These are also a darker wheel with more spokes.
This threw me off a little, and I didn't realize Tesla already upgraded the wheels by default
on the web site.
But after deeper inspection you can edit the vehicle to downgrade the wheels to these 7
spoke wheels.
Therefore we are not able to totally rule out this being the long range yet.
PERFORMANCE If it is not the performance, what might infer
from that.
Well it could have been a plausible theory, in that Tesla would simply try and generate
as much profit as possible by selling the Performance and Long Range versions from Texas.
The 4680 batteries would have made a great performance version.
The performance version does have the most profit.
However, demand for the performance won't be enough to support the supply coming out
of Texas.
So we aren't too surprised it's not performance.
DEMAND Whereas the Long Range though, well that does
have a lot of demand still and it does still carry some hefty profit.
But if it is the long range, then why are they using the standard wheels for all of
them?
If Tesla went with the long range, then you might assume it would be for additional profit,
then wouldn't they also want to be adding the more expensive optional extra wheels,
to get the extra profit?
Currently it is showing on Tesla's web site I can take delivery of a Model Y by September,
6 months away.
Fremont alone is handling that demand.
Yes, its a reasonable waiting list, but Texas probably has 5 times the Model Y capacity
as Fremont.
Do you think Tesla would have demand for 5 times as many Ys, starting at a price of $62,000.
Before you answer that, also bear this in mind.
That demand I am referring to for the Long Range, well it will drop, when there is suddenly
a lower cost Model Y out on the market too.
This lower cost Model Y, is probably going to be in the mid $50,000s.
I predict $54,000.
Now that is going to get a lot of demand, at that price point.
And perhaps the price will be a little higher to start with, but it's still going to be
a saving compared to the Long Range.
When price is lower, demand is definitely higher.
Standard range Model 3 is the most popular Model 3.
FREMONT But one of the biggest issues I have with
these potentially being long range vehicles is, well, they already make Long Range Model
Ys at Fremont.
Would Tesla really want to stop making Long Range vehicles in Fremont, and then make them
in Texas instead.
Closing down the already established line of 2170 Long Range, and then moving them over
to Texas for 4680, whilst it would appear keeping the performance in production at Fremont.
And then to set up all these new production lines for this new 279 mile Model Y vehicle?
A different size battery pack.
Is that likely?
Or would Tesla continue to produce long range 2170s at Fremont and long range 4680s at Texas?
I don't like having two different products labeled as the same.
But it's not always about what I like.
COLORS The colors they have chosen for the vehicles,
well, usually they are white.
White and grey now, are the base colors, but these are all blue and black.
They have the standard wheels on, but they have upgraded colors?
Perhaps these new versions also have different based colors.
Which may be good, as there are probably too many white Teslas around.
PROFITS I had previously ran a model that suggest
Tesla could produce 40% more vehicles, if they ran the medium range version from Texas
instead of the long range.
And although there will be less profit per vehicle, the fact there are 40% more vehicles,
means Tesla can make up for it in overall total gross profit.
This is the most profitable route.
It also increases Tesla's market share that much faster, more first mover advantage.
It means that there are more cars out on the road, to benefit from FSD and Robotaxis too.
WEBSITE But when will we find out, how will we know?
Possibly one day soon, it will simply be added on to the web site, as a different option
when purchasing a Model Y.
And there with it will be more information, finally from the battery day features we have
been waiting to see all this time.
We will know if it is using 4680 batteries from the specifications.
HACKED COMPUTER In addition to that, a Tesla hacker has discovered
language in the Software Update 2022.8.2, they are indicating that there is a Texas
made Model Y Standard Range Plus version.
And goes on to say "I guess that would be the first car configuration out of that place
pretty soon."
Right ok, well I have been labeling the car the medium range model Y, but standard range
plus is a likely name also.
For those of you avid fans you might be able to recall there actually was a medium range
Model 3, that we called the Lima.
But it sounds like this hacker is also saying that this new vehicle is coming from Tesla,
and with 4680s.
SUMMARY This may not be the irrefutable evidence we
need, but I think, in my opinion, we have enough signals all pointing to this 279 mile
range version of the Model Y, being the vehicle we are seeing come out of Texas, and with
the 4680 battery.
Now if you are unhappy about this, then ask yourself why?
Is it because you are looking through the perspective of a consumer, and thinking more
what car you would want, and therefore feel that as you are a Tesla customer, then you
know what the customer wants.
Or are you thinking from the perspective of what is best for the company and mission.
I think this does align with what's best for now.
The 4680s can be used in the Cybertruck and Semi later, when they are in production, but
in the meantime, lets get as many of these Teslas out as possible.
And alright for those long time listeners, this does sound like me getting overly excited
about the Plaid, all over again.
And I admit it, Tesla absolutely blew me away with the Plaid, that I don't know how they
got that performance out of those cars.
I do try and go to Tesla extremes at times, but sometimes they are so far ahead, even
I can't seem to reach.
But I do what I can to source the evidence and see what makes sense to me.
For what its worth, I hope I am wrong, and these are LFP batteries, and Tesla has gone
and jumped another order of magnitude on LFP tech.
But I don't even think Tesla can do that, without us knowing.