The Philippines has elected a new president.
Is China the big winner?
Welcome to China Uncensored. I’m Chris Chappell.
The Philippines has elected new leadership. Meet president Ferdinand Marcos Jr,
and Vice President Sara Dutere.
If those names sound familiar, it’s because Ferdinand Marcos
Jr is the son of Ferdinand Marcos Sr, the dictator who ruled the Philippines
for two decades. Most of that time, he kept it under martial law.
And Sara Duterte is the daughter of current outgoing president Rodrigo Duterte.
In other words: dynasty.
The pair will take office at the end of June for a single six-year term.
Now if you’re watching this from the Philippines: I love you. Good luck. I miss you...
...and your giant Christmas chickens.
If you’re anywhere else in the world, let’s talk about what it means for you:
The Chinese Communist Party is happy.
For context, the Philippines was a US territory in the early 20th Century,
until it gained independence after World War II.
Even since then, the US has had a big military presence in the country.
Which is important, because the Philippines is geographically close to China.
But complicating all this is that the Philippines has also been moving *politically* close to China.
Particularly under president Rodrigo Duterte over the past six years.
“[Rodrigo] Duterte...nurtured closer ties with China and Russia,
while at times railing against the United States.”
And now his daughter Sara will be the Philippines’ new vice president,
alongside president Ferdinand Marcos Jr, also known by his nickname, Bongbong.
Side note—what’s up with cute nicknames for Filipino presidents?
Marcos Jr is Bongbong.
Duterte was Rodi.
President Aquino was Noynoy.
And President Arroyo was...GMA?
Ok, not everyone gets a cute nickname.
Anyway, Bongbong’s father was a brutal dictator who killed and tortured thousands of people.
...and had also tried to move politically closer to China.
So what’s President Bongbong’s stance on China? And why does it matter for the rest of the world?
More after this commercial break.
Welcome back.
This is Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the president-elect of the Philippines.
He takes office at the end of June.
And his presidency complicates US efforts to counter China.
“Marcos has been short on specifics about foreign policy, but in interviews he said he wanted to
pursue closer ties with China, including possibly setting aside a 2016 ruling by a tribunal in The
Hague that invalidated almost all of China’s historical claims to the South China Sea.”
His perspective seems to be that the Philippines simply doesn’t have the naval or diplomatic power
to enforce its own claims. I can see that.
When I went to the disputed Scarborough Shoal in 2016...
...I saw tons of coast guard ships from China.
But from the Philippines, only small private fishing boats.
And on top of that, the Philippines doesn’t believe
the US will necessarily come to its aid in a territorial dispute with China.
Because the US didn’t come to its aid ten years ago during the last big dispute.
The Philippines had taken its territorial dispute to the Hague for arbitration. And in 2016,
the court decided in favor of the Philippines, rejecting Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea.
Beijing just ignored the ruling.
And then President Duterte decided:
“If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.”
And President Marcos Jr. is probably going to continue that strategy. As he
said on the campaign trail, “Allowing the U.S. to play a role in trying to
settle territorial spats with China will be a ‘recipe for disaster’” and
“Duterte’s policy of diplomatic engagement with China is ‘really our only option.’”
And of course China wants that too. Especially if it means the Philippines moves away from the US.
Marcos’s biggest campaign rival was Leni Robredo—who was vice president under Duterte.
Which, I know, may seem like a “You have to vote for one of us” scenario.
But Robredo had said during the campaign “she would seek
stronger ties with Washington and distance from Beijing.”
And I know, what a candidate says during their campaign and what they do once they
get into office have as much to do with each other as...potatoes and underpants.
But the win for Marcos is definitely China’s preference.
And during the campaign this year, Marcos met with the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines,
tweeting afterwards about strengthening their countries’ relationship.
Over the past six years, China had offered to invest billions of dollars in roads, bridges,
and other infrastructure in the Philippines.
Marcos said he would resume Duterte’s “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure program,
and suggested that Beijing’s support was important for that.
Which makes sense. The Philippines does need investment—and under Duterte not
enough investment was coming from the US.
That’s partly because Duterte pushed the US away.
The US was not super happy about, for instance, all the extra-judicial killings.
Which Duterte confessed was really his only sin.
Sure, he killed thousands of people without due process. But at least he didn’t steal money.
The Chinese Communist Party, on the other hand, is totally cool with extrajudicial killings.
I bet they could even offer some tips.
But there’s also a pitfall of relying on the Chinese Communist Party:
Breaking promises is their superpower.
A lot of the infrastructure they promised failed to materialize.
One political science professor told CNN that in reality,
“China was not reciprocating President Duterte’s charm offensive... China’s pledges of investment,
which were largely illusory, made Duterte make a lot of geopolitical concessions’...adding
that in the meantime China continued to press its own claims.”
So China pursued territorial claims with trillions of dollars, and the Philippines got...a bridge.
This is bad news for the Philippines. But it’s also bad news for the West.
The South China Sea is a major route for international shipping. And if the Chinese
Communist Party truly controls it, they can tax or block international commerce arbitrarily.
They could also get access to valuable underwater oil and natural gas reserves.
And more dangerous, if the Philippines gets too close to China, they could kick
out the US military. The US has more than 20 US bases and military facilities in the Philippines.
Which will come in handy if China starts a war with Taiwan, which has no US military bases.
President Duterte had repeatedly threatened to end the military deal with the United States...
although he never actually made good on that threat.
But if President Marcos does, it could spell big trouble for the
US and its allies in the region—especially Taiwan.
If Taiwan falls, all of Asia will quickly fall
to increasing Chinese Communist Party control. That includes, of course, the Philippines.
So will Marcos be the kind of president who cozies up to the Chinese Communist Party?
Well, we don’t know. I suppose it depends... on whether he’s stupid.
And now it’s time for me to answer a question from one of our supporters.
This question comes from Ringleader on Patreon:
“Everyone knows that the CCP don't currently have any jets that can take off from their carriers.
And since the CCP navy is has no combat experience at all,
why should Japan and Taiwan be nervous about them? Good question. Well, you’re right that the
PLA Navy doesn’t have recent combat experience. But neither do Japan or Taiwan.
And the PLA Navy does now have jets that can take off from their carriers.
Even if they look stupid doing it.
The biggest danger, though, isn’t their aircraft carriers or fighter jets. It’s their missiles.
The PLA has done a great job of using stolen technology to build really excellent ballistic
missiles and hypersonic missiles that can sink ships or destroy ground facilities from afar.
They lock onto their targets automatically, and they’re very hard to intercept.
So in a war with China, those missiles are going to cause a lot of damage.
Thanks for your question, Ringleader. And thank you for being a member of our China Uncensored
50-Cent Army. That’s our fans who support us through the crowdfunding website Patreon...
...or the social media platform Locals.
The links to both of those are below. Your contributions are
the reason we can continue making this show.
Once again, I’m Chris Chappell. Thanks for watching China Uncensored.