surprise in early may nasa officially
announced it selected
spacex's starship to land humans on the
moon
as part of the agency's artemis program
to develop starship for the moon nasa
will pay no more than 2.9 billion
dollars to spacex over the next few
years
money that will be matched and possibly
exceeded by funds from spacex itself
under the terms of the award spacex will
fly starship to the lunar surface
without a crew
at least once before transporting
astronauts
nasa says there is still a chance that
mission could happen in 2024
although the agency is currently
conducting a review of the entire
artemis
program what prompted nasa to make this
choice
and how will the structure and timing of
the artemis project now
change return to the moon
what changes in the artemis project
[Applause]
first of all it must be said that
investing in starship will help nasa
return to the moon
but it will also do something more
consequential
starship is a mars ship
by choosing starship for the moon nasa
is investing in the starship program
itself providing spacex with a cash
infusion for the
same technology and systems it needs to
get to the red planet
a true moon to mars strategy if there
ever was one
however it is also true that this
decision is not without
risk nasa previously selected at least
two companies to provide commercial
cargo and crew services to the
international space station in order to
preserve competition
control cost and ensure redundancy
by selecting only spacex nasa is putting
all its eggs in one basket but spacex
has previously delivered on its nasa
contracts
in the past 20 years they have grown
from a small startup
to the world's premier aerospace company
launching cargo and astronauts at a pace
commisurate with national space agencies
nasa now places the lives of its
astronauts in the hands of spacex to
reach the iss
relies on the company to supply the
space station
and places its precious scientific
missions atop their rockets
if starship succeeds in returning humans
to the lunar surface
it will be the ultimate vindication of
the public private partnership
model nasa will gain a lunar lander at a
fraction of the cost of the apollo era
lunar module
and spacex a private entity would gain
independent access to the lunar surface
a locale previously the domain of a
single nation
and in the same fell swoop both
organizations would step toward
mars seen this way it might make sense
what do you guys think to understand how
this decision was arrived at however one
must take a step
back and reconsider the policy steps
that preceded it
humans have not traveled beyond earth
orbit since the apollo program
ended in 1972 nasa has officially been
trying to change that since 2004 when
president george bush announced
what became the agency's back to the
moon constellation program
do you remember that in 2010 the obama
administration canceled constellation
but two key pieces of the program
survived
the orion crew capsule and a rocket that
became what is now the space launch
system or sls both vehicles are being
developed using classic cost
plus contracting where nasa pays for the
full cost of development
even if costs rise far above initial
estimates
nasa's artemis program will use the sls
to blast astronauts to lunar orbit
aboard orion
where they will meet up with a
previously emplaced lunar lander to
travel to the surface and back
orion in the future we'll also dock with
gateway a small space station in lunar
orbit
still to be designed and built from
there astronauts can conduct science and
transfer to lunar landers
basically rather than building a lunar
lander in-house
the way it does with sls and orion nasa
opted to pay
space companies a fixed price to build
their own lunar landers which the
companies will own
nasa in turn can purchase ongoing
landing service from these providers
the total cost to nasa is therefore
fixed any cost overruns are shouldered
by the companies
conversely if the companies can deliver
their landers for less than the cost of
the contract
the company retains the difference as
profit
nasa successfully deployed this model to
ferry crews and cargo to the space
station
encouraged by a business-friendly white
house that pushed for a 2024
moon landing nasa expanded its use of
public-private partnerships beyond
low earth orbit creating new programs
for commercial
lunar payload deliveries of scientific
instrumentation
and technology demonstration missions
last year
the agency funded spacex blue origin
and dinetics to develop human-ready
moonlander concepts for artemis
and proposed to spend nearly 21 billion
dollars over the next five years to
support
multiple human landing vehicles but
despite
strong white house support congress last
year provided only 850 million dollars
for lunar landers
far below the 3.4 billion dollars nasa
requested
so faced with a funding shortfall nasa
delayed its decision to select which
companies would receive
funding for continued development of
their moon landers
that is until last week when nasa
announced they would go
all in on starship nasa would probably
have liked to pick
more than one provider for redundancy
but with little funds to go on and the
prospect of seeing the moon landings
drag out for many more
years they picked the cheapest and most
likely to succeed
option spacex at this point however one
has to wonder
will the choice of spacex technology
change anything in the artemis project
spacex's starship in fact is designed to
be
much more than a lunar lander it's
actually an
end-to-end transport system designed to
ferry people to mars
the vehicle launches and lands upright
similar to the way the company's falcon
9 boosters return to earth for reuse
spacex has been working on starship for
years building prototypes
and destroying them at a rapid pace as
they perfect the vehicle's ability to
land upright
but despite starship's ability to launch
humans directly from earth to the moon
or mars that's not how nasa will
initially use it
for artemis starship will blast off
without a crew to lunar orbit
nasa astronauts will launch aboard orion
and sls
and then either directly dock with
starship or
transfer to it via the gateway station a
crew will take starship to the surface
stay for about a week and then launch
back to lunar orbit where they will
transfer back to orion
for return to earth nasa's source
selection documents showed that starship
was both
cheaper and more capable than the
landers proposed by blue origin
and dinetics but this is not the end of
either blue origin or
dianetics lunar lander concepts the 2.9
billion dollar contract awarded by nasa
is for development activities
one uncrewed landing test and one crude
landing demonstration of starship
nasa plans to compete a subsequent
contract for ongoing lunar surface ferry
operations
anyone can bid on that so the other
teams could continue to self-fund to
mature their lunar landing designs in
the interim
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but then what about the space launch
system and the orion capsule in theory
if spacex's starship can land on the
moon it can ferry humans there as well
there is no need for the space launch
system in orion
at all in theory but nasa's not ready to
say goodbye to those vehicles yet and
with good reason
first the technical side while spacex
has shown that it can reliably land the
booster stage of its falcon 9 rocket
upright although one occasionally misses
the mark
the spent booster stage doesn't
currently land with a heavy pressurized
crew capsule on top of it
starship meanwhile is an order of
magnitude
larger than the falcon 9 and is still
trying to perfect its landing on earth
its booster the super heavy has yet to
fly
nasa is not yet ready to launch its
astronauts on such a new system
though that could change over time
additionally
vehicles returning to earth from the
moon hit the atmosphere at much higher
speeds than they do when returning from
earth orbit
nasa's orion crew capsule which uses
legacy heat shield technology that dates
back to the apollo program
successfully tested a high-speed
re-entry during its 2014 test flight the
gargantuan starship
vehicle will belly flop through the
atmosphere taking a page out of the
space shuttle's playbook
starship has yet to successfully land
from earth orbit
let alone lunar orbit that brings us to
the second reason
politics sls and orion were written into
u.s
law by the senate in the 2010 nasa
authorization bill
and employ tens of thousands of people
in every
state congressional support for the
projects has remained strong over the
years even as the projects have delayed
their schedules and blown their original
budget projections
by merely flirting with non-sls options
for sending humans to the moon
the agency incited the wrath of powerful
senators
the current plan for artemis is thus an
artful mix of political and
technological compromises
every major nasa contractor participates
in the program
as will the agency's major international
partners through the gateway program
europe canada japan artemis comprises
both classic cost plus contracts
and new fixed price contracts for its
major components
with jobs distributed around the country
it is the inevitable outcome for a large
project that depends on discretionary
spending overseen by a representational
political system
however there is much more to it than
that despite the current focus on the
moon
nasa's public relations materials
constantly remind
us that mars has not been forgotten
artemis
is a moon to mars program though up
until this announcement the mars part of
that claim was more ambition than
reality
the moon and mars represent markedly
different environments and challenges
the moon is far closer to earth allowing
astronauts to stay in what is basically
real-time communication with the ground
they can return home in a matter of days
if something goes wrong
there are launch opportunities roughly
every month
mars offers no such conveniences
communications are delayed by
tens of minutes requiring significant
increases in spacecraft autonomy
launch windows are limited to once every
two years when earth and mars are
optimally aligned
landing on mars with its thin atmosphere
and significant gravitational well
is a far harder problem than landing on
the moon's airless expanse
nonetheless the moon and more broadly
cis-lunar space can be useful for
developing
and testing the hardware and techniques
needed to send humans to mars
that is if missions to the moon are
deliberately pursued with mars in mind
it is all too tempting and cheaper for
engineers to optimize for moon only
solutions in a tight budgetary
environment
the addition of starship to artemis can
spurn this temptation
spacex is a new breed of aerospace
company
one with ambitions beyond that of
serving government
needs it is a privately held company it
is under near total control by its
founder elon musk
who can pursue his agenda as long as it
makes money
his agenda happens to be human
settlements on mars
whether this is a feasible or even
desirable goal
is beside the point spacex has a highly
capable workforce
it is well capitalized and it is
building a mars ship
with starship whether or not nasa chips
in
so by choosing starship nasa is gaining
a partner with shared long-term
goals that is going to mars regardless
of current domestic
politics both sides benefit
spacex will enjoy a significant cash
infusion in starship
and will gain access to the lunar
surface nasa saves
billions of dollars on a lunar lander
while supporting a mars initiative
with starship nasa is buying the moon
but it is investing in mars a decisive
move on the space policy chessboard
don't you agree