This is Volvo's 360c concept car,
and it's just one idea of what completely driverless cars
might look like one day.
That means cars without even a steering wheel
that can safely navigate public roads
entirely on their own.
But with how much we hear about self-driving technology
making its way into everyday cars, it's hard not to wonder:
How much longer do we have to wait?
Understanding just how far we've come
with self-driving technology can be a bit tricky.
To help define how sophisticated
the automated technology actually is,
the Society of Automotive Engineers
classifies these systems using five levels.
Level 1 is driver assistance,
where the vehicle is able to control steering or braking
but not both simultaneously.
Level 2 is partial automation,
where the car can assist with
both steering and braking simultaneously,
but your attention is required on the road at all times.
Both Tesla's Autopilot and General Motors' Super Cruise
are examples of this.
Level 3 is conditional automation,
where certain circumstances allow the car
to handle most aspects of driving
and the driver has the ability to temporarily
take their eyes off the road.
Level 4 is high automation,
where, in the right conditions,
the car can take full control,
giving the driver a chance to focus on other tasks.
And Level 5 is full automation.
In this hypothetical situation, the car drives you,
and there isn't even a steering wheel.
So, what level are we currently at?
Most experts would agree:
somewhere between Levels 2 and 3.
However, one of their biggest concerns
is the public's misconception that we're much further along.
Bryan Reimer: There's an incredible amount of confusion
in the general public around the context of self-driving.
In our survey data here, about 23% of respondents believe
that a self-driving vehicle is available for purchase today.
And a lot of that has to do with statements by Elon Musk
and others talking about the driverless capabilities
and the self-driving capabilities of vehicles.
These are systems that are made to assist the driver
under the supervision of a driver.
Narrator: So, is it simply the limits
of these automated systems that's holding us back?
Actually, there are a number of other factors in the way.
For starters, our roads.
Simply put, many roads, especially in the United States,
are too much of a mess to support cars
that can drive by themselves.
Reimer: So, while many individuals out there
are really working on the development
of self-reliant automation, in essence,
a robot that's fully capable of making its own decisions
in today's infrastructure, the reality is,
today's infrastructure is not well equipped for autonomy.
In essence, potholes, poor lane markings,
and all the other crumbling aspects
of our nation's infrastructure
aren't going to support high-tech well.
Narrator: In addition to more public roads
needing signs and lane markings
that self-driving cars can clearly make out,
vehicles need to be wirelessly connected
with that traffic infrastructure, as well as one another,
in order to interact with the world around them flawlessly.
Fortunately, automakers like Volvo already have technology
that allows their cars to communicate with each other
and alert drivers of hazards via a cloud-based network.
This type of connected technology
is being tested even further
within driverless cars at Mcity,
a 32-acre mock city and testing facility
at the University of Michigan.
Greg McGuire: So, what are connected vehicles?
When we say "connected" at Mcity,
we're really referring not to streaming Netflix
into your passenger seat so much,
that's a pretty solved problem in the industry,
but in how vehicles and infrastructure
can be connected together
for lots of other benefits, like safety.
The idea is a low-latency way for vehicles
to tell other vehicles
and anything else that wants to listen
where they are and where they're going.
Narrator: So, once traffic infrastructure
and communication is handled,
what else do we need to address?
Well, traffic laws.
Governments have a number of important decisions to make
in society's transition to self-driving vehicles.
In the beginning stages, they'll have to define
what weather conditions are appropriate
for vehicles to be operating fully autonomously.
This is due to the fact that many of these car systems
can be disrupted by rain and snow.
One industry they could look to for guidance
is the airline industry,
who doesn't hesitate to cancel flights in inclement weather.
They'll also have to initially find a way
for autonomous vehicles to safely navigate public roads
amongst traditional cars.
A possible solution could be designated lanes,
similar to the high-occupancy-vehicle lanes
found on highways
and bus lanes found in certain cities.
Ayoub Aouad: The government's kind of leaving it up to
states to decide what's going on,
just because the technology's
so new and they still don't really understand
what it's going to look like in the end.
Once the government does fully get involved,
the federal government,
they're gonna have to speak to lobbyists,
people that represent truck drivers and taxi commissions.
And they're gonna realize that, you know,
a lot of jobs could be lost,
and that's going to be difficult.
And then, also, liability.
If these cars are on the roads
and they're getting into accidents, like, who is liable?
Narrator: With all of these things considered,
back to our original question:
How soon until we have self-driving cars?
Aouad: I'd say within the decade it's gonna be on highways,
but if we're talking about being able
to take your car wherever you want across the United States,
being able to travel through New York City
and sleep the whole time,
I don't think we're anywhere close to that.
Probably several decades away from that.
Reimer: You know, car makers and tech companies
are very heavily focused
on the context of driverless technologies.
Now, I'm not saying that that's not the future.
It is the future.
But, as many have begun to admit publicly,
that future is further away than anybody's
realistically considered to date.
We as humans are really good at predicting the future;
we're not so good at the timelines.
And the timelines to driverless technology
changing how I live and move
is probably in the order of several decades,
if not further away.
McGuire: How close are we to the Jetson's car?
We're still a ways away, in my opinion.
It isn't really a matter of when these technologies
will arrive, to me, but can we be ready
and utilize them in the best way possible.