BACK TO SCHOOL AND BACK TO YOUR
MONEY.
YOUR KIDS AREN'T THE ONLY ONES
COMPLAINING ABOUT SEPTEMBER.
SEPTEMBER IS TYPICALLY THE
TOUGHEST MONTH FOR STOCKS BUT
HERE'S WHAT'S NOT TYPICAL THIS
TIME AROUND.
FOLKS, YOU KNOW SOME OF THIS.
CHINA/U.S. TRADE TENSIONS SO FAR
ARE RAMPING UP, NOT SIMMERING
DOWN.
THE DEADLINE CAME AND WENT ON
CANADA, SIGNING ON TO NAFTA 2.0.
EMERGING MARKETS ARE SHUDDERING
AT THIS HOUR WITH ARGENTINA'S
PESO COLLAPSING IN THE WAKE OF
AUSTERITY PROGRAMS.
FAST-GROWING ECONOMY HERE IN THE
U.S.?
WE HAVE TWO WIDELY DISPARATE
PREDICTIONS FOR THIRD QUARTER
WHEREAS THE NEW YORK FEDERAL
RESERVE BANK SEES IT TOTALLY
DIFFERENTLY AT 1.98%.
LET'S TRY AND CLEAR SOME OF THE
SMOKE OUT OF THE AIR WITH THE
WHITE HOUSE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
ADVISERS, WHO JOINS US IN A FOX
BUSINESS EXCLUSIVE.
KEVIN, I KNOW THERE'S ROUGH
WEATHER COMING YOUR WAY.
WE WANTED TO GET TO YOU RIGHT AT
THE TOP OF THE SHOW.
LET'S BEGIN WITH THIS.
THERE'S SOMETHING THAT HASN'T
BEEN PUT UP ON THE SCREEN YET
BECAUSE THERE'S NO CHART OR
PICTURE TO REALLY SHOW IT, BUT
AND THAT'S THE UNLEASHING OF
ANIMAL SPIRITS.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND SPENDING
ARE UP, UNEMPLOYMENT AT HISTORIC
LOWS.
NOW?
>> RIGHT.
EVERYTHING IS FIRING ON ALL
CYLINDERS AND YOU COULD PROBABLY
HEAR THE THUNDER AND LIGHTNING
ROLLING IN.
THE ECONOMY IS SO GOOD, I'M JUST
GOING TO KEEP GOING.
BUT IT'S REALLY TRUE.
WE HAVE GDP GROWTH NORTH OF 4%,
I THINK THE ATLANTA FED NUMBER
IS CLOSER TO WHAT OUR NUMBER IS
THAN THE NEW YORK FED NUMBER,
BECAUSE THERE'S ALL THIS
INVENTORY REBUILDING THAT HAS TO
HAPPEN IN THE THIRD QUARTER,
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS ABOUT THE
LOWEST WE HAVE SEEN GOING BACK
DECADES AND ESPECIALLY FOR
MINORITIES AND SO ON.
SO JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING WE LOOK
AT IS DOING AS GOOD AS IT CAN.
GOING FORWARD WE SHOULD EXPECT
THAT TO CONTINUE BECAUSE THE BIG
STORY IN THE FIRST HALF WAS
IS GOING TO BE ALL THE FACTORIES
WE BUILT IN THE FIRST HALF WILL
START PRODUCING OUTPUT AND THAT
WILL MAKE OUTPUT GO EVEN HIGHER.
LIZ: I AGREE WITH YOU.
ANIMAL SPIRITS, I ALWAYS SAID,
IT'S NOT SOMETHING THAT COULD BE
QUANTIFIED BUT IT'S SPONTANEOUS
WHEN IT COMES TO THIRD QUARTER
GDP AND THEN OF COURSE, THE NEW
YORK FED WHICH HAS A DIFFERENT
OPINION?
CAN YOU DO US A FAVOR, GIVE US
WHAT YOU EXPECT FOR THIRD
QUARTER GDP?
THE ATLANTA FED.
I'M THINKING, LIKE I TRY TO KEEP
PEOPLE FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND
IN THE WHITE HOUSE, THEY TEND TO
LOWBALL, BUT 3.5 IS LOOKING LIKE
A PRETTY COMFORTABLE NUMBER
RIGHT NOW.
I WOULD HOPE IT WOULD COME IN
BE QUITE COMFORTABLE WE WILL GET
NORTH OF 3 IS AGAIN, THE SHELVES
ARE EMPTY.
INVENTORY COLLAPSED IN THE
SECOND QUARTER BECAUSE EVERYBODY
WAS BUYING STUFF LEFT AND RIGHT.
THERE'S A HUGE AMOUNT OF
LIZ: WHEN I LOOK AT THAT, I LOVE
IT.
I LOVE THAW SAY YOU DON'T WANT
TO GET PEOPLE TOO EXCITED WITHIN
THE WHITE HOUSE BECAUSE IT'S
BETTER TO UNDERPROMISE AND
OVERDELIVER.
>> WHICH WE DID WITH OUR
FORECAST.
GO BACK AND LOOK LAST YEAR.
LIZ: PRESIDENT OBAMA DURING HIS
EIGHT YEARS DID AT CERTAIN
POINTS SURPASS MORE THAN 4% I
HEAD FAKE.
OF EXCITEMENT AND THEN
IT'S REALLY LIKE THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN WHAT WE'RE SEEING RIGHT
NOW AND THE SUGAR HIGH PRESIDENT
OBAMA GAVE US.
REMEMBER THINGS LIKE CASH FOR
DESIGNED TO THROW CASH AT
CONSUMERS SO THEY WOULD GO OUT
AND BUY STUFF.
YOU GET A SUGAR HIGH BECAUSE YOU
BOUGHT TWINKIES AND ATE THEM AND
THEN YOU FEEL KIND OF BAD.
THAT'S NOT WHAT WE ARE DOING.
WHAT WE ARE DOING, WE FIXED A
BUNCH OF POLICIES, MADE AMERICA
A GREAT PLACE TO LOCATE
BUSINESSES AGAIN, AND THEY ARE
HALF IS NOT A COLLAPSE BECAUSE
WE JUST HAD ALL THOSE TWINKIES
BUT RATHER AN INCREASE, BECAUSE
BUSINESSES WILL START PRODUCING
OUTPUT.
THERE ARE NEW FACTORIES BEING
FORMED EVERY DAY AND THE NEW
FACTORIES WILL HAVE OUTPUT IN
THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR.
THAT'S THE OPPOSITE OF A SUGAR
HIGH.
I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE OPPOSITE
OF A SUGAR HIGH IS, BUT WHATEVER
IT IS.
LIZ: I NEVER REGRETTED HAVING A
TWINKIE.
I REALLY DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU'RE
TALKING ABOUT.
>> IMPRESSIVE.
YOU REGRETTED GIVING IT TO YOUR
3-YEAR-OLD.
LIZ: EXACTLY.
IT'S JUST TO KEEP THEM QUIET.
CAN I SAY WHAT I KNOW I CAN HEAR
INCLUDING CORPORATE AMERICA,
WERE A SUGAR HIGH.
THEN SOME ARGUE CASH FOR
CLUNKERS, GLAD YOU BROUGHT THAT
UP, WE HAVEN'T TALKED ABOUT IT
IN AWHILE BUT IT MAY HAVE BEEN
PART OF THE REASON THE GREAT
U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY WAS SAVED.
WHERE DO WE STAND WHEN WE LOOK
IN ITS ENTIRETY AT THE U.S.
ECONOMY, BUT THEN THROW IN THE
TRADE TENSIONS WE HAVE AND THE
GREAT CONCERN, IT'S ALREADY KIND
>> SINCE 2004.
THAT'S RIGHT.
LIZ: BUT RAW MATERIAL COSTS ARE
GOING UP.
SOME WOULD EQUATE THAT TO THE
PROBLEM OF TRADE TENSIONS AND
TARIFFS AND THAT THAT COULD SLOW
THINGS DOWN.
>> WELL, WHAT'S GOING ON RIGHT
NOW IS THAT WE'RE WORKING OUT
GREAT TRADE DEALS.
WE HAVE ALREADY FORMED A DEAL
WITH MEXICO AND SOMETHING THAT
HASN'T REALLY BEEN COVERED A LOT
IS THAT AS WE WERE FINALIZING
THE DEAL WITH MEXICO, BOTH WE
AND THE MEXICAN NEGOTIATORS WERE
AGREEING TO TERMS WE THOUGHT
CANADA WOULD WANT TO ACCEPT.
WE HAD BEEN NEGOTIATING WITH
THEM ALL YEAR.
WE KNEW WHAT THEY WANTED, SO
THERE COULD HAVE BEEN SOMETHING
THAT MAYBE WAS THE BEST DEAL FOR
THE U.S. AND MEXICO EXCLUDING
CANADA BUT THAT'S NOT WHAT WE
AGREED TO WITH MEXICO.
WE AGREED TO SOMETHING WE TLI
THE CANADIANS SHOULD SIGN UP
WITH.
WE ARE VERY, VERY CONFIDENT THE
RELATIVELY SOON BECAUSE THE
AGREEMENT WITH MEXICO IS REALLY
I THINK THAT TRADE TENSIONS FOR
SURE WERE HIGHER IN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE YEAR BECAUSE THERE'S
A LOST
A LOS
A LOT
A LOT O
A LOT OF
A LOT OF U
A LOT OF UNC
A LOT OF UNCER
A LOT OF UNCERTA
A LOT OF UNCERTAIN
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY B
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BEC
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BECAU
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE W
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE WE
PROMISED WE WOULD IMPROVE THE
TRADE DEALS.
PEOPLE WANTED TO SEE IF WE COULD
DELIVER.
NOW WE HAVE DELIVERED WITH
MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DELIVER OVER THE SECOND HALF OF
THE YEAR.
IT'S ANOTHER REASON MARKETS
MUCH LONGER BUT I DON'T WANT
ANYBODY TO GET HIT BY LIGHTNING,
YOU OR THE CAMERA PERSON.
>> WE'RE SAFE RIGHT NOW.
YOU GOT ANOTHER THREE OR FOUR
QUICK QUESTION HERE.
SENATOR CHUCK SCHUMER HAS SAID,
HE'S PUT OUT THIS BILL AND I
BELIEVE THERE WAS ANOTHER
CALLS IT THE MEASURING REAL
INCOME GROWTH ACT, AND HE WANTS
TO BE ABLE TO SEE EXACTLY HOW
THE MIDDLE CLASS IS FARING AND
IT WILL METE OUT OR PARCEL OUT
DIFFERENT METRICS ON HOW THE
WORKING CLASS IS DOING WHEN IT
COMES TO GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT.
>> WE ABSOLUTELY, IN FACT, WE
ARE PUTTING OUT A STUDY IN THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS THAT DOES
EXACTLY THAT.
I 100% SUPPORT BETTER DATA ON
HOW THE MIDDLE CLASS IS DOING,
I JUST WONDER IF SENATOR SCHUMER
IS GOING TO WONDER WHETHER HE
SHOULD HAVE DONE THAT IF WE DO
IT BECAUSE IT'S GOING TO MAKE
PRESIDENT TRUMP LOOK AWFUL GOOD.