welcome to another medcram lecture we're going to talk about an update for
coronavirus as of 1:27 2020 we have in China four thousand four hundred and
twenty eight infected and 106 that have died now one of those that died recently
was Beijing's first reported death and this is a 50 year old gentleman who
visited Wuhan on January 8th and developed fever seven days later on the
15th went to the hospital on the 21st and then died on the 27th so this kind
of gives you at least an example of one in terms of the natural history of what
we're talking about now over the past day or so there's been some
epidemiologists in China that have looked at this and they're trying to
parse exactly how well the containment or the quarantine of this area is and
they've come up with some pretty sober results they say that optimistically if
we were to able to get a 90% containment of the area they predict based on their
models that the peak infection would hit about 59 thousand people and that would
mean that would be about 1500 deaths now if the containment was worse than that
and there's been some news about that recently because the mayor of Wuhan said
that about 5 million people went out of the city after there was the virus and
so if you look at a worst-case scenario of only 50% containment of the area
based on the models that they've come up with is five million people being
infected and a death rate of about 100,000 people and in terms of the
publication of this I'm going to go ahead and put the links in the
description below so you'll have the links to all of this stuff that I'm
going to talk about today so things have kind of heated up we have Sri Lanka
having its first case this is a Chinese tourist that went to Sri Lanka and this
patients being hospitalized in the capital of Colombo we have the United
States ordering a level 3 alert saying no non-essential travel to China
we have a quarantine in China of about 50 million people and one of the areas
that's really going to be of high interest is this whole idea of whether
the virus can be contracted when the patient or the index case is
asymptomatic this claim was first made by the China's Health Minister but there
is growing concern because the United States and their Health Department
personnel have been unable to look at the data in China because they're not
being allowed to look at that data to see exactly how is it possible that
somebody who does not have symptoms is able to transmit the virus and so we're
not exactly able to back up that claim as of this moment better news in the
u.s. there's been no new confirmed cases overnight so we've got four or five
cases we got two in California one in Los Angeles County the other one in
Orange County we have the one in Washington State and that's an
interesting story in and of itself so in Washington State the index case
themselves is a gentleman who actually went to the market in Wuhan and
currently health investigators are looking at about 64 different people
that he might have had contact with and they're tracking them down and seeing
whether or not they have the virus so far the index case himself is doing fine
getting back to California as we mentioned there are cases in Orange
County and also in Los Angeles County what was just recently announced is that
Ontario International Airport is going to be the repatriation center for about
240 Americans who are going to be repatriated back to the United States
out of China and that is a chartered flight and its first going to go to
Anchorage Alaska for refueling and it's at that point that they're going to have
their first health check and then it will be going on to Ontario
International Airport in Southern California where they will be as soon as
they get off the plane they're going to be screened to make sure that they're
not sick and to make sure that they don't have the
virus and there's more details on that article so that's something that's been
in the news just recently in the last few hours interesting news out of Canada
there is a case in Toronto which I know very well since I'm originally from
Toronto the patient came from Wuhan and is currently in a hospital there in
Toronto called Sunnybrook Health Care Sciences interestingly the husband is in
hospital but the patient's wife has also tested positive for the corona virus
however she's at home and she's doing quite fine without any symptoms and I
think this is an interesting illustration of how variable the
presentation can be of this virus in different individuals and we're assuming
here that they both picked it up at the market there in Wuhan China and
hopefully that the husband did not give it to the wife can that would be the
first case of a human to human transfer outside of China so far we have not had
any evidence at least in the United States or in fact anywhere else in the
world other than China where there has been a
human to human transmission of this virus so that's good news okay let's
talk about vaccines here Johnson & Johnson is getting into the fray and
trying to come up with a vaccine for this virus they're saying that it's
going to take anywhere between 8 to 12 months before human testing can take
place the NIH on the other hand is saying that they may have something
ready in about three months it'll be interesting to see where we will be at
that time a lot of epidemiologists are saying that the peak of this epidemic
may be reached in about three months time a side note here on Johnson &
Johnson they have a very powerful HIV medication which interestingly as you
may know HIV is an RNA and virus as well and they're wanting to see whether or
not the HIV medication is going to be effective against the corona virus and
that medication is Prescott so that'll be interesting to see how
that works now a common question that gets asked is exactly how does this
virus kill somebody why is it that people succumb to the virus and what
mechanism and in most of the cases it's respiratory failure and something called
a RDS so in the next video I'm going to talk about a RDS and exactly how is it
that we treat it what do we do for it and why is it that we need to have
updated ICU is to deal with a RDS and what's been the recent evidence in the
last couple of years for treating a RDS and how can we improve survival for some
of these viruses that's going to be in the next video thanks for joining us and
stay tuned for further updates