A seismic political shift. VisualPolitik fans,
this is how we can describe the enormous political upheaval that has taken place in Colombia.
A country that has just faced one of the most important elections in its history.
Even before the first round, all polls indicated that for the first time,
a clearly left-wing project, very left-wing, could become the favorite choice of Colombians.
And do you know what? That's exactly what happened.
The center-right and in general the country's traditional political
class were wiped off the map. The former mayor of Medellin,
Federico Gutierrez, known as Fico, the center-right candidate who attracted
the support of forces such as the U Party, the Conservative Party, the Liberal Party,
Radical Change and the Democratic Center did not even make it to the second round.
Having the backing of Colombian political heavyweights such as Cesar Gaviria,
Andres Pastrana and even Alvaro Uribe – not to mention President Ivan Duque himself – did him
absolutely no good. Colombians said no to the traditional politicians.
And so, Gustavo Petro, the scourge of the right and one of the icons of
the current Latin American left won the first round. And yet,
perhaps he did it in a very different manner from what was expected.
That Rodolfo Hernandez, an independent candidate, struck such a blow to Federico
Gutierrez, or Fico, is something that could become his worst nightmare.
C1("This is really the most difficult scenario imaginable for Petro and I don't think his
campaign team is very happy. It will be an uphill struggle for him in the second
round" Sandra Botero, political analyst at the University of Rosario in Bogota.)
Now the math has become very complicated for Petro. Rodolfo Hernádez captures a
good part of the anti-establishment vote that Petro himself is chasing. And not only that,
together, the candidates that did not make it to the second round
added up to more than 6 million votes. Now most of them support Rodolfo Hernandez over Petro.
To make matters worse, the leftist candidate can no longer raise the discourse of change,
because the real outsider of Colombian politics is not him, but his opponent.
Now, what could explain such an electoral turnaround in Colombia, and why have the
center-right and Uribism taken such a thrashing? And perhaps the biggest question of all:
What is this going to all mean for Colombia? Listen up.
1(THE END OF AN ERA)
Over the last few decades Colombia has been something of a rare bird in Latin
American politics. Let's just say we are talking about a country that has
usually gone its own way and has been immune to the fashions of the region.
For example, while during the 1960s and 1970s, Latin America was filled with right-wing military
dictatorships, Colombia remained a stable but restricted democracy in which two parties,
the Liberal and Conservative, alternated power. Then, during the late 1990s and early 2000s, as
the region began to turn to the left, giving rise to what became known as 21st century socialism,
Colombian politics began to tilt to the opposite side, to the point of ending 2002 by giving power
to Álvaro Uribe, a strong center-right candidate who, in one way or another,
has dominated Colombian politics to this day. While in the rest of Latin America there have
been very abrupt shifts, Colombia was, once again, the exception.
And the truth is that things have apparently been going relatively well.
In real terms, between 1999 and 2019, GDP per capita grew at a rate of 2.4% per year.
It doesn’t exactly warrant a ticker tape parade, but, to give you an idea,
it is twice the growth that the United States registered during the same period of time, 2.5
times the growth of Spain and about 4 times the growth of countries such as Mexico or Argentina.
Colombia has practically equaled Chile's performance over the last two decades.
Of course, this was accompanied by important social changes. Violence plummeted,
the number of young people pursuing tertiary education quadrupled, and virtually all
social indicators improved strongly. Even the recovery from the coronavirus
has been one of the fastest in all of Latin America. By 2021,
the economy had already surpassed its pre-pandemic level and, as another example, post-pandemic
industrial production was 7% higher than in 2019. And it's not just about the economy. Externally,
Colombia has also gained influence. The country has joined the OECD,
five years ago it became the first Latin American country to obtain NATO "global partner" status,
and in April 2022, President Joe Biden designated Colombia as a "major non-NATO
ally," a status that carries with it preferential treatment in security and defense matters.
But, all of that was until now. The latest elections have been a heavy blow, a turning
point that has changed everything. Colombia has said enough to the traditional parties,
to the center-right, to Uribism and to everything that is associated with them.
And the question we are wondering is, why? What on earth has caused this huge change
if the data is apparently not bad at all? Well, the answer can be found in Ivan Duque's
presidency. Listen up.
2(A CURSED PRESIDENT)
Ivan Duque ran for election with great promises of change, transformation and modernization of
the Colombian economy and society. However, the truth is that we could almost say that
his mandate has been cursed. Over his four years in office,
Colombia has endured a pandemic, a category 5 hurricane, the largest social unrest in 70 years,
an unprecedented migration crisis and even an international energy and food crisis.
It could not have been more difficult. Evidently escaping from this was a very, very
complicated mission, so President Duque's approval rating at the time of the elections was a very
poor 28%, while 85% of Colombians believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction.
Of course, the President did not start off on the right foot either. This was partly his own fault
and also because the opposition did not let up. In 2019, demonstrations and protesters flooded
the streets of the country denouncing the President's intentions to privatize public
companies, reduce the minimum wage for young people and reform the pension system to give
influence to the private sector. The president's lack of response,
negotiation skills and leadership ended up freezing any program for change.
In 2020 the protests returned against police brutality and then in 2021, the Duque government
presented, without much explanation or consensus, a tax reform to raise the income tax on the middle
classes and the VAT on basic goods in order to reduce taxes on productive activity. The reform
could have made sense but the matter was handled so badly that it set the streets on fire again.
And in the end, Duque himself ended up doing basically the opposite:
passing another tax reform that basically raised corporate taxes from 31% to 35%.
Exactly the opposite of what he had been advocating for years.
So, in the end, no change in the economic model. Then another slippery slope was violence
and security, another of Duque's big promises, and things couldn't have gone
worse for him in that department either. Clearly Colombia has not returned to the
levels of violence of the late 1990s and early 2000s, but things have not been going well.
C2("The country is in an absolutely dramatic situation due to the security problems that exist,
both in terms of the armed conflict and security in the cities" – Camilo Prieto,
associate professor in the Department of International Relations at the
Pontificia Universidad Javeriana in Bogota) During Duque's term in office, violence has been
exacerbated by the growing activity of drug gangs, FARC dissidents and the ELN. To give you an idea,
between 2019 and 2022 alone, 835 social and neighborhood leaders were killed across the
country. At the same time, combat actions by armed groups skyrocketed again. Check it out.
And if we add to all this the effects of the pandemic,
we can get an idea of why Duque has ended up with such a low approval rating. Of course,
it's not all his fault, far from it. The fact that the Colombians have
stomped their feet so loudly also has a lot to do with this. Check it out.
3(BROKEN DREAMS)
VisualPolitik viewers, the stomping that the Colombian people have done recently doesn’t
even come close to the typical crisis to which this country has accustomed us.
A crisis that has nothing to do with guerrillas, organized crime, narcotics or rural poverty.
No. In this case the discontent comes mainly from young people and urban areas who feel
enormous frustration over broken dreams. Of course, the pandemic has played a key
role in this sentiment. Because, yes, Colombia's economy has now recovered and
its output is higher than before the pandemic, but the same has not been true for employment,
which remains lower, nor for poverty rates. In 2021, almost 40% of Colombians were living
in poverty and more than 12% in extreme poverty. And if we take into account that Colombia has more
than 50 million inhabitants, we are talking about many millions of people in a desperate situation.
To give you an idea, in real terms, about 20 million Colombians survive
on less than $89 a month. There are a huge number of people who are experiencing
enormous harm from inflation. Because of the energy and international food crisis,
prices are rising faster now than at any point in the last 20 years.
To make matters worse, Colombia is, after Peru, the country with the highest incidence
of informal labor: slightly more than 6 out of every 10 workers do not have a formal job,
with all that this entails. All this has been the final straw
and eroded the hopes of hundreds of thousands, millions of young people. But above all,
the enormous frustration that the country is experiencing has to do with this graph:
Pay attention because here is one of the big keys to electoral change.
Over recent decades Colombia has made many advances, but the social elevator simply
does not work. Neither in the countryside, where 80% of agricultural land is still in
the hands of 1% of landowners, nor to a large extent in the cities.
In Colombia, if you are born poor you will most likely be poor,
and so will your children, grandchildren and even your great-great-grandchildren.
And it has been proven that the lack of evolution is one of the major fuels for anger and social
discontent. You could say that, during the last few years the balloon of a supposed
Colombian dream has been well and truly popped. It is the broken dream that has led Colombians
to say enough is enough. Because when you feel you have nothing to lose, voting for revolution,
drastic change or simply against the elite is seen as a much more reasonable option.
But having said that, the question is, what now? Listen up.
4(THE NEW COLOMBIA)
Petro looked very happy. Known as "Aureliano" and "Andrés" during his time in the M-19,
this former guerrilla turned economist is still very left-wing.
And faced with all of Colombia's problems he saw his big opportunity. He was one of
the great promoters of the protests that flooded the Colombian streets during the
last few years and of course he ran for election with promises of all kinds:
Free higher education, guaranteed public jobs for the unemployed,
more spending on health care and higher pensions. All this while promising to put an end to new oil
and gas exploration and to pass a huge tax reform so that the entire bill will be paid
only by the highest incomes, especially the 4,000 wealthiest people in Colombia.
So what's the problem? Well... Basically, the math doesn't add up.
According to Petro, his tax reform will raise between 50 and 65 trillion pesos or $13 to $17
billion dollars. Well, his main promises alone are estimated to cost more than twice that amount.
So, what do you want me to say? Everything indicates that we are looking at the same
old story that consists of a blank check to win votes but then there are no funds.
And if we add to this the fact that Petro also wants to distance himself from Washington,
raise tariffs and renegotiate free trade agreements,
even though these have boosted Colombian exports, it is not surprising that the
Central Bank itself has begun to detect capital flight before the elections.
One moment, however, Petro suddenly has another problem.
Now he has to face a candidate who is much more of an outsider than he is and who, after the first
round, may have become the big favorite. We are talking about Rodolfo Hernández,
a businessman who has presented himself as an independent and who has concentrated his messages
against the political elite. The former mayor of Bucaramanga,
known to some as the Colombian Trump, seems to defend the free market and property while talking
about ending social injustices. And above all ending the privileges of politicians.
For example, he has promised to renounce the president's salary, end most official cars,
reduce the number of advisors and to lower the salary of congressmen. He also advocates
keeping public spending under control, finding ways to cut VAT by almost 50%
and replacing all subsidies with a kind of minimum income.
Well, now his candidacy seems ready to scoop up the votes of most of the candidates who did not
make it to the second round. Federico Gutierrez himself, Fico, has already given him his support,
and it seems that other candidates such as Fajardo, John Milton and Enrique Gómez
also identify more with him... Even though ideologically he is an unknown candidate.
So, who knows, but it is clear that if Colombians want to make some noise against the "political
caste" without having to resort to a very left-wing program, this could be their candidate.
That is at least the hope of Rodolfo Hernandez himself. A candidate that economic analysts
say would greatly reassure the markets. Be that as it may, what is clear is that
neither candidate controls the parliament. Although Petro certainly seems to have a
much more difficult time achieving consensus. C4("Petro could say that his policies are A,
B and C, but that doesn't mean he can deliver on them" [...] In the worst case scenario,
Petro would preside over a highly conflictive government that would do nothing rather than
a government that dismantles Colombia's institutions". Luis Fernando Mejía, director
of the economic think tank Fedesarrollo.) So you see, Colombia has a presidential system
and the legislative elections took place on 13 March 2022. Petro's alliance achieved the best
result but fell far short of any majority, both in the House of Representatives and in
the Senate, where it barely has 15% and 18% of the seats respectively.
So, whatever the final outcome, everything indicates that we can expect some stability.
As has happened in Mexico, for example. Where, in the end Amlo has largely had his hands tied. What
is clear is that Colombia needs to get that social mobility working again because today it is at a
standstill condemning millions of Colombians. But having said that, it's your turn:
What impression did you get from the election results? Does it seem logical to you that
Colombians have made such a stand? Which candidate do you like more, Petro or Rodolfo Hernandez? If
you are watching us from Colombia, and there are many of you, who are you going to vote for?
Leave us your comments below. And now if you found this video interesting don't forget to
like and subscribe to VisualPolitik. All the best and see you next time.