>> ALL RIGHT.
WELCOME BACK, BEFORE WE GO, I
WANTED TO AGAIN CATCH UP WITH
THE MAN BEHIND THE PANDEMIC
PONDERING BLOG.
WE’VE BEEN TALKING WITH DR. JIM
BAKER, GOOD TO TALK TO YOU
AGAIN.
AND I WAS EAGER TO TALK TO YOU
GIVEN WE’RE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE
CASES WE’VE SEEN SINCE THE
PANDEMIC IN MICHIGAN.
YOU WROTE LAST WEEK ON YOUR BLOG
AND YOU’RE NOT ONE TO REALLY GO
OUT ON A LIMB OR MAKE CRAZY
PREDICTIONS, BUT YOU SAID, 2022
IS THE YEAR THIS PANDEMIC ENDS.
KIND OF GIVE ME A REASONING ON
THAT AND HOW YOU GOT THERE.
>> YEAH, WHEN WE TALK ABOUT
PANDEMIC, YOU KNOW, THIS HUGE
WAVE OF INFECTION THAT GOES
AROUND THE WORLD, WE USUALLY SEE
A COUPLE OF PHASES AND INITIALLY
THERE’S A PHASE WHERE YOU HAVE A
LOT OF MORTALITY, A LOT OF
PEOPLE WHO ARE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE,
DYING RAPIDLY.
THEN YOU EVOLVE TO A MORE
CONTAGIOUS VIRUS THAT’S STILL
VERY PATHOGENIC, THAT’S DELTA
AND WINDING DOWN.
OM IS TYPICAL FOR THIS.
THE VIRUS IS VERY CONTAGIOUS,
BUT ISN’T AS PATHOGENIC BECAUSE
IF IT KILLED OFF ALL OF ITS
HOSTS IT CAN’T PROPAGATE
ANYMORE.
THE MORE PEOPLE IMMUNE TO THE
VIRUS, THE MORE THAT THEY HAVE A
VACCINE OR HAVE A NATURAL
INFECTION, THE LESS LIKELY
THEY’RE GOING TO HAVE A SEVERE
EFFECT FROM THIS.
SO, WE’RE REALLY, WE SEE THESE
DOWNWARD WAVES AS THE PANDEMICBU
>> Devin: DOES THAT NOT NEGATE
THE--
DON’T WE ASSUME THERE ARE OTHER
VARIATIONS AND MUTATIONS COMING?
>> WELL, THERELE --
THERE WILL BE, BUT THE FACT IS
WE HAVE BROADER IMMUNITY WITH
EACH WAVE SO IN FACT, YOU’VE
PROBABLY SEEN REPORTS THAT
OMICRON IS EFFECTIVE IN PEOPLE
GETTING DELTA.
SO AS YOU GET A LESS SEVERE
FORM, HAD A LESS PATHOGENIC FORM
OF THE VIRUS, IT’S HELPFUL TO
PROTECT YOU AND IN FACT, OMICRON
WOULD BE SORT OF WHAT WE WOULD
HAVE DEVELOPED IF WE TRIED TO
MAKE A LIVE VIRUS VACCINE
AGAINST CORONAVIRUS BECAUSE IT
SEEMS TO PREFERENTIALLY
REPLICATE IN THE NOSE AND UPPER
AIRWAY AND NOT THE LUNGS.
YOU DON’T GET THE SERIOUS
PNEUMONIA THAT YOU DID WITH
DELTA.
>> THAT’S MY EXPERIENCE, SORT OF
A BIT AFTER HEAD COLD.
AS I MENTIONED TO THE GOVERNOR
EARLIER ON THE PROGRAM, SHOULD I
BE CONCERNED THAT THE PERCENTAGE
OF PEOPLE IN THE HOSPITAL WHO
ARE UNVACCINATED KEEPS GETTING A
LITTLE LOWER?
WHEN IT STARTED OUT, IT WAS THE
HOSPITALS WERE 75% PEOPLE WHO
HADN’T HAD THE VACCINE AND NOW
IT’S 62, 61% ACCORDING TO THE
MOST RECENT NUMBERS THAT WE HAD
FROM BEAUMONT.
IS THAT A WORRY?
>> WELL, I THINK THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF THINGS.
NUMBER ONE, THERE’S SO MANY
PEOPLE INFECTED, WE’RE ACTUALLY
SEEING PEOPLE ADMITTED TO THE
HOSPITAL WITH OMICRON AND NOT
BECAUSE OF OMICRON.
AND WE SEE THAT PARTICULARLY IN
THE PEDIATRIC POPULATION.
YOU KNOW, THERE IS AN ENORMOUS
AMOUNT OF INFECTION IN CHILDREN
RIGHT NOW, BUT WE ONLY HAVE 110
PEOPLE AS OF--
CHILDREN AS OF TODAY IN THE
HOSPITAL.
AND MOST OF THOSE KIDS WERE IN
FOR OTHER THINGS SO WE’RE SEEING
A LOT OF PEOPLE ADMITTED WITH
THE VIRUS, BUT NOT FOR THE
VIRUS.
THE OTHER THING I THINK IS
REASSURING IS THAT IT APPEARS
THAT NOT AS MANY OF THE PEOPLE
WHO ARE INFECTED, EVEN IF THEY
AREN’T VACCINATED, ARE REQUIRING
ICU CARE.
SO, IN FACT, THE OVERALL -- BOTH
THE TREATMENTS ARE BETTER AND IT
SEEMS LIKE THE VIRUS IS LESS
SEVERE WHEN YOU GET INFECT SNOOD
LASTLY, DOCTOR, THE OTHER THING
I WANT TODAY TALK ABOUT, THERE’S
BEEN TALK ABOUT OTHER BOOSTERS
THAT ARE GOING TO BE NECESSARY.
WE’VE HEARD TALK OUT OF ISRAEL A
FOURTH BOOSTER IS COMING ALONG
AND YOU TOOK ISSUE WITH THAT ON
ONE OF YOUR RECENT POSTS, NUMBER
ONE, MAYBE IRRESPONSIBLE TO TALK
ABOUT THAT KIND OF THING YET
GIVEN THERE HASN’T BEEN A LOT OF
EFFICACY STUDIES ON THAT AND NOT
SURE THAT THAT’S THE COURSE THAT
THESE VIRUSES TYPICALLY NEED OR
DEMAND.
>> RIGHT, YEAH, THE ISRAEL
REPORT WHICH GAINED A LOT OF
NOTORIETY WAS ABOUT 150 PEOPLE
AFTER ONE WEEK OF VACCINATION.
SO, I DON’T REALLY THINK THAT
TELLS US ANYTHING RIGHT NOW.
THE ISRAELIS ARE LOOKING
ENTIRELY AT ANTIBODY
NEUTRALIZATION WHICH WE’RE
FINDING OUT, ESPECIALLY WITH
OMICRON, IS PROBABLY NOT THE
PRIMARY MEANS OF PROTECTION.
CELLULAR IMMUNITY, I THINK, IS
MORE IMPORTANT.
LONG-TERM IT MAY BE THAT WE NEED
A DIFFERENT VACCINE IF THERE’S A
LOT OF MUTATION OR A DIFFERENT
SCHEDULE OF VACCINES.
YOU KNOW, I THINK RIGHT NOW,
WE’VE DONE AS WELL AS WE CAN TO
WITH THE CURRENT OMICRON WAVE
GIVEN OUR PRIMARY VACCINES AND
IN FACT, THEY’RE BETTER THAN THE
FLU VACCINES IN TERMS OF THEIR
PROTECTION, SO, I THINK THAT WE
NEED TO TAKE A STEP BACK AT THIS
POINT AND REALLY SEE WHAT COMES
NEXT.
>> Devin: WHEN WE’RE STANDING IN
WHAT FEELS LIKE THE WORST OF IT
AS FAR AS CASELOAD, IT’S NICE TO