Hey, everybody.
Welcome to Ask Dan where you ask me questions.
I do my best to answer them.
What’s happened this week with Microsoft news and devices?
So, let’s get to it.
“Microsoft seems to be continually updating the Band.
Any news on version 2 and/or hitting more markets?”
So yeah, the Microsoft Band is slowly picking up steam.
Now, a lot of people will ask about when is it going to be available.
My theory on this (and I think it’s an informed theory) is that Microsoft Band version one
is basically a test product out there.
So they’re getting a lot of feedback before they roll it out big time.
They’re not going to commit to it until they’re confident.
Now, let’s talk about Microsoft Band 2.
Yes, it’s coming soon.
I’ve heard any time in the next few months, we should expect it.
The last one was launched around October, so I think sometime before then, we should
probably see a Microsoft Band 2.
Now, I’ve already heard some details about it including it doesn’t have a flat display
anymore (to which a lot of people complained about).
A lot of the features remained the same, but they’re basically fixing all the things
that people had been complaining about including the way it fits and like I said, the display.
So definitely expect the Microsoft Band 2 in the next few months.
I think they have more confidence in this one.
Think of the surface model and how that’s been going.
That’s what’s being applied here to the Microsoft Band.
“Do you believe Hololens (and similar hardware) are the next hardware revolution after smart
phones?”
So is Hololens the next big revolution?
I would say it’s part of it.
The real revolution here with hardware is going to be putting it everywhere, the so-called
‘Internet of things’.
What makes Hololens interesting is basically, it has no display.
I mean, sure, it does the hologram aspect, but there’s no operating system that you
can see even though it’s running Windows 10.
Wearables will also be a continuation of that.
We’re going to see basically computers being put in all sorts of things.
Samsung and GE have done this with refrigerators already, but I think we’ll see it in other
aspects of our lives.
So Hololens has brought one aspect of this idea of putting computers in accessories and
things around us.
As it grows, we’ll continue to see that.
“If (God forbid) Windows phone/mobile doesn’t make it, what platform would you rather switch
to?”
Obviously, I don’t want to think about switching from Windows phone, but I do use an iPhone
and an Android phone on occasion.
I do have multiple lines with my carriers.
Now, if I had to chose between those, I would always go with the iPhone.
For one, I like the hardware.
I think the iPhone6 is actually a phenomenal device.
I find the operating system incredibly boring, but it works and it’s stable.
I can get things done.
Android, on the other hand, I’m using a Galaxy Edge.
I love the hardware on it, but the Android system on there is pretty much a mess right
now.
There’s a big memory leak.
Now, I get the idea.
There’s a ton of people that say, “Well, you need to get a pure Android device.”
That’s a hell of a story to tell me when I just paid $800 for that phone.
That’s what I find frustrating about Android is that the best experience is always one
device away from the one you have.
“I’ve heard the new flagship phones have a metal casing.
Will that affect Qi or is the metal casing worth the trade-off?”
Alright!
Well, let me correct one thing right away here.
The new flagships are not metal.
They’re going to be made of, what I presume, a plastic polymer type of thing that we’re
already used to with some Nokia device.
Having said that, I don’t know if Qi is on board (and I’ll try to find out), but
being that it’s not metal, I suppose that Qi will be there.
That is something I believe Microsoft will continue for obvious reasons.
Qi is not limited now to Lumia devices.
Samsung is using it as well as other companies and it’s really starting to catch on.
“How likely are we to see an Intel-powered Windows mobile phone from Microsoft?”
Regarding Intel-powered phones, I don’t actually have any details on that right now.
Presumably, they can be used for those specific enterprise devices that Microsoft talked about
yesterday.
Now, what that would give users is the ability to run executable files on Windows phone.
Now, you don’t want to run Photoshop on your phone, but this is where Continuum comes
into play.
You want to be able to connect your phone up to your display with the mouse and keyboard.
Now, the high-end Lumias that are coming out will be able to do that, but of course, you
can’t run desktop apps, just the universal Windows apps like Outlook and the office applications.
I think it can be kind of cool though.
I think [inaudible 00:03:50] if they can run executable files and then it’ll be like
a true PC in your pocket.
It remains to be seen if they’re going to do that.
But technically, it is possible.
And like I said, their focus on Enterprise devices may be the way for them to do it.
“With this week’s announcement of lay-offs, will Microsoft continue to make Lumias?
Seems like everything is in limbo.”
Alright!
Let’s talk about this question.
Now, obviously, a lot of news has come out this week about Microsoft cutting back on
their device division for Windows phone.
Specifically, they laid off 7800 people.
Now, part of this I think is redundancy.
We have gone to the specifics of this, but they did merge the Windows phone group with
Terry Myerson’s group.
So basically, it’s all under one division.
Now, I would guess that a lot of that was redundant.
You don’t need the same people working on hardware on two different groups.
So that may be part of the lay-offs.
The other thing is, sure, Microsoft needs a lot of production capacity, but you can
farm that out.
After all, Apple does not make the iPhone.
They simply design the parts for it and then farm out the work to FoxConn.
I think Microsoft would rather do that than, say, own factories.
And so, whether or not Microsoft will continue to make Lumias, yes, I think they will.
And in fact, I know they will.
They’re going to make two flagships.
I believe those are going to be announced in September at IFA and possibly at CTA in
Las Vegas just a few weeks later.
So those devices are definitely coming out there.
They had not been cancelled.
That’s why I still have faith in Windows 10 being supported by Microsoft in regards
to their phones.
Now, what comes after those flagships, I don’t really have any ideas, but there are some
things on the roadmap.
They did talk about Enterprise and continuing those low-end devices.
I think we’ll see that.
Now, I think it’s actually a really cool thing, what Microsoft is doing and I know
this is controversial.
But I think the idea of cutting back the amount of phones in their portfolio and concentrating
on good quality devices is important.
Now, let me be very clear about something.
Just because you reduce the amount of models that you’re making, it doesn’t make you’re
going to reduce the volume of sales.
Those are two separate things.
You can, in theory, make fewer phones and sell more devices.
I mean, after all, as everybody points out, Apple only makes one to two phones a year.
So because of this, I actually do have a lot of faith in Windows 10 and Windows 10 mobile.
I think Microsoft’s going to stick with it for at least two years.
Listen, if Microsoft wanted to kill Windows phone yesterday, they would have done it.
They would have said, “We’re ending production completely.
We’re not making any devices.
That’s the end of the story.”
Instead, they committed to making flagship phones, enterprises devices and budget Windows
phone.
I think that means it’s a big commitment to Windows phone.
After all, they’re not going to sell flagship devices to people and only six months later,
get rid of the whole operating system.
That would be a really big black eye on them.
They’re betting on two things though.
One, that obviously Windows 10 mobile does catch on.
I think they can possibly do that with these flagships, although it’s a big if.
Now, the other thing is they’re hoping that the device category shifts.
They think that the smart phone story is sort of petering out.
We all have them, what else is there to do?
So they’re hoping that something like Continuum, the idea of you just go up to display and
then you just throw your phone on there and it can act as a PC is going to be this next
evolution in smart phone devices.
It remains to be seen, but that’s what they’re betting on.
“Do you really think that the recent strategic planning will help Windows phone to grab more
share?”
So, this is a really tough question to answer.
If you have ever followed me on Twitter or my writings, I don’t really make predictions.
I actually think it’s pretty arrogant to do so, one, because mobile and technology
is so dynamic, that things change rapidly.
For instance, a couple of years ago, people were predicting that Nokia was going to grab
80% market share.
This is before they went to Windows phone.
They also predicted when those phone would have way more market share than today.
So I think this idea of trying to predict what’s going to happen is sort of dangerous.
I honestly don’t know if Windows 10 mobile is going to catch on.
I hope it does.
And to be honest, they only need to hit about 10% in the United States before I would think
it becomes significant and people can’t ignore it anymore.
Now, a lot is going to ride on how well those new devices are received and how well the
operating system is treated by customers.
I think things look positive.
So I don’t know.
But long-term, yeah, I think the pieces are there for success, but this is a tough market
to crack and a lot of people had trouble doing it.
Look at Samsung, they’re suffering now and they sell a lot of Android devices.
“In a nutshell, what is the motivation for mobile-focused devs/companies to build universal
apps?”
So this is a really interesting question.
With Windows 10, you probably know that they’re going to be universal Windows app.
This means you write the code once and you can spit it out to Xbox, even Hololens, Windows
10 desktop and Windows phone.
As you’re probably guessing, the motivation to make an app for Windows phone is probably
not there and it may not be there for a few months.
However, if you’re a developer, you can make an app and put it to Windows 10 desktop.
Now, I think the motivation there is pretty huge as, don’t forget, Windows 10 is a free
upgrade for millions of users on Windows 7 and Windows 8.
So that’s the motivation.
The thing is, once you make an app for, say, desktop, it’s just a click and a few little
changes and you can now send it to phone.
It’s really no work on a developer’s part, so there’s really no effort.
This is the change from Windows 8.1 where sure, there was this idea of a universal app,
but there was a lot of behind-the-scenes coding that a developer had to do.
So, they could be listed twice and shown in the store for a Windows phone and a Windows
desktop, but ultimately, you had very different apps.
Now, when you write that app, it’s going to be coded once and when you update it, it
gets sent out to both devices at the same time.
That’s a really big change.
So where’s the motivation?
It’s also going to be the Xbox users, it’s going to be people for Hololens and more importantly,
the Windows 10 desktop user.
“Do you think lowering the number of devices will convince OEMs to make more Windows phones?”
So this idea is something I’ve been flirting around.
I think it makes a lot of sense.
Currently, 97% of all Windows phone are Lumias.
That’s actually the significant size of the pie.
And if you’re Samsung or HTC, you’re probably wondering, “Why bother?
You can’t compete with that?”
So one aspect of the strategy, I imagine, is that Microsoft is backing down so their
partners step up.
Now, I want to be clear.
This doesn’t mean that they backed out and they wait and see what happens.
That’s going to be part of it.
But honestly, what really goes on here are a lot of behind-the-scene deals.
In other words, Microsoft has talked to Samsung and LG and HTC and it’d be like, “Hey!
Let’s work on a phone together” or, “What are you guys planning?”
And Samsung will hopefully come back and say, “Alright!
We were thinking about doing this.”
Now, they’re going to want some incentive as well.
So, Samsung may want some engineering expertise from Microsoft.
They may want some pushing forward and advertising.
So how those deals happen is going to be really important.
I believe Microsoft is confident that they can now sway those companies to get onboard,
“So now, we’re backing down on these Lumias.”
Once that’s done, yeah, I believe that companies like Samsung and HTC will step up.
Now, ultimately, people are saying, “Well, why would Samsung bother?”
But it all comes down to one thing.
Money.
If Microsoft could convince these companies, “It’s worth your time financially to make
these devices” and that they can make money from it, sure, they’ll get onboard.
After all, companies like LG, Samsung and HTC just care about the bottomline and I think
that’s what we’re going to see happen with Windows 10.
So that wraps it up for this episode.
Use #askdanwindows on Twitter to submit your question, maybe we’ll it on next week’s
episode.
Take care, everybody.