China is the most polluting country in the world, as well as the largest energy consumer.
Surely that comes as no surprise, right?
Well that’s exactly why the Asian superpower plays a key role when it comes to meeting
the objectives of the Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit global warming by a maximum
of 2oC.
And to achieve this goal, decreasing the use of coal to produce energy is fundamental.
The Paris Agreement also stipulates that the combustion of coal should be eliminated worldwide
by the year 2050.
Well, China currently emits 30% of the world’s CO2 emissions, even though it only accounts
for 20% ​​of all global manufacturing.
This means that China is still very inefficient when it comes to managing pollution.
And this has a lot to do with its huge dependence on coal to fuel its power plants.
Coal is a very cheap way of producing energy and China has massive coal reserves.
And although, it wasn’t too long ago that these sooty plants had a clearly scheduled
end date, that isn’t so clear anymore.
Dear friends of VisualPolitik.
It seems that China has sneakily gone back on the promise that was recently made by Xi
Jinping himself.
Or ... at least, they’ve halted progress.
In this video we’re going to tell you how and why China has decided to overlook the
pollution problems caused by using coal and what can be expected as a result of this decision.
Listen up!
(INTRO)
Check out these news stories.
They’re only three years apart.
(2016 - China warns Trump against abandoning climate change deal - Financial Times)
(2019 - Years after freezing new projects, China is back to building coal power plants
- The Washington Post)
Surprised?
Well... you shouldn't be.
Xi Jinping isn’t exactly great at leading by example.
It’s true that some progress has been made, but China’s current relationship with coal
is generating many questions.
China is still a developing country and therefore its demand for energy – which is not only
driven by industry but also by its steadily growing middle-class – is unstoppable.
China literally devours energy.
The Asian superpower is still far from reaching Europe’s position, where with cleaner energy
and efficiency improvements, we can aim to keep both energy consumption and CO2 emissions
at bay.
Meanwhile the trend in China is quite the opposite.
In fact, despite all the promises and the government’s many plans, this country is
not only failing to decrease its coal-based energy production, it’s actually increasing
it.
And with that, its emissions will increase as well.
Yes, I’m saying that China’s carbon-linked emissions are growing every year.
Do you want more details?
Listen up.
(CHINA AND COAL, A FATEFUL MATCH?)
There’s a determining fact in China's relationship with coal:
These days, China simply cannot – and does not want to – stop producing energy from
coal.
As we explained at the beginning: The great Asian giant has once again approved the construction
of coal thermoelectric plants in at least 11 provinces.
We aren’t talking about one, two, or even ten new plants.
We’re talking about at least two dozen new plants, some of them huge, which will increase
China’s coal-based energy production by 150 gigawatts.
To put that into perspective, that’s equivalent to the coal-based energy production of the
entire European Union.
And it doesn’t end there.
To supply all these new plants, 40 new coal mines will be opened in the upcoming years.
That is, thousands of jobs will be created in this industry.
And this will happen within just a couple of years.
Now, hold on just a second.
Does this mean that China has definitely turned its back on its commitment to reduce pollution?
Well no, not entirely.
At least, as long as we’re talking in relative terms.
Between 2012 and 2018, the percentage of coal-based energy in the energy mix dropped from 68.5%
to 59%.
That means that in just six years, China went from producing more than two-thirds of all
its energy needs from coal to just over half of it.
It’s still a huge percentage, but it’s also a considerable reduction and that’s
the statistic that the government tends to boast about.
But of course, the fact that China decreased its coal-dependence by 10 percentage points...
is no cause for celebration.
In fact… does relative data really matter when we’re talking about pollution?
Why should the mix distribution matter if carbon emissions continue to increase?
Think about it for a moment.
Imagine that China’s total energy production for one year is 1000 units of energy and a
few years later it rises to 1500.
Well, assume that the first 700 of those 1000 units were produced with coal, and years later
they were producing 900 out of 1500 with coal.
Technically, the percentage of coal in their total energy production would’ve decreased,
but in reality, coal energy production would’ve increased by 200 units.
And when we’re talking about pollution, emissions and the environment, what matters
are the absolute figures.
And that’s precisely what’s happening in China.
Check this out.
(CHART)
As you can see, since 2000 China has multiplied its coal-based energy production by five,
while in the same period, the United States and the European Union have reduced theirs
significantly.
And yes, okay, some may think...
But Simon if we measure it in per capita terms then China isn’t the most polluting country.
Well, yes, you are absolutely right, it’s the same issue as we had when we considered
the energy mix.
When we talk about pollution, what matters is absolute figures and how they evolve.
And as you can see, China isn’t only the largest polluter in the world, it’s emissions
are also on the rise.
Now, just a second, before we pass a verdict.
What would you say if I told you that China, besides being a world leader in dirty energy,
is also the world leader in clean energy?
Well... it may be hard to get your head around but it’s true.
In absolute figures, China produces more energy with clean sources than any other country
on the planet.
In 2018, they produced 728 gigawatts with renewable energy, 12% more than in 2017.
But... how is this possible?
Why on earth are they still building coal plants instead of focusing on new technology?
Well, the truth is that there’s a lot of internal conflict on this issue.
Because China literally floats on coal.
Its subsoil is full of this mineral.
Without coal, some regions would return to absolute poverty overnight.
We’re talking about thousands of workers, hundreds of thousands of workers who make
a living from this sector: miners, power plant workers, transporters, etc.
Therefore, the problem lies in what would happen in China if the domestic coal market
was eliminated.
Nowadays it’s an essential sector that produces low-cost coal that can then be sold competitively
in international markets.
And that’s where the big question arises, the key question: Will China be able to meet
the international community’s deadlines to combat greenhouse gas emissions?
Will it really be able to kick its dependence on coal?
(THE CHINESE PARADIGM: FROM AMBITION TO REALITY)
In the case of China, things are a bit more complicated than they seem.
As you can see, in this country, giving up polluting plants and relying on renewable
energy sources isn’t that simple.
But this problem isn’t a new one, it started a long time ago.
In the 1980s, as you all know, China experienced a fierce industrial and economic explosion.
Obviously, all of that went hand in hand with an equally fierce demand for energy.
And being able to meet such a high demand with so much interannual growth is quite complicated.
Energy production plants take time to build and go into service, however China needed
the energy, it was an immediate demand.
They couldn’t wait for months, or even years until the plants were ready.
That’s precisely why the Chinese government promoted laws that would allow companies and
regional governments to anticipate demand and propose the construction of many more
coal plants than necessary in advance of China’s continued explosion.
Because, after all, the growing trend in energy demand was clear, so they were definitely
going to need more energy plants at their disposal, right?
Well, relatively recently, in 2014 the central government went one step further and allowed
its provinces to approve and build power plants completely independently.
That is, it decentralized decision making.
And this... wasn’t a very good idea...
NOT if we’re talking about phasing out coal.
You see, the rulers of China’s provinces are usually people trying to step into the
national political sphere.
They are career politicians with an eye on reaching high positions in the central government.
That’s where the power, money and influence are.
But to do so they have to show certain skills, for example a remarkable management capacity.
In the Chinese model, it’s the final results that count, so they have to get their province
to develop, if possible faster than the other provinces.
Therefore, provincial governments do everything they can to support the industrialization
of their regions.
This industrialization, naturally requires a lot of energy… and that means coal.
It all seems like a good recipe for success, as long as we forget about the environment
and the people living there because pollution in China’s cities is a real problem.
And of course, faced with such deterioration – imagine China’s international image
amidst the climate panic – the central government realized its mistake and, as we told you at
the beginning of the video, reversed the decision to build a lot of new plants in 2016.
However, this reversal has now been reversed again – coal plants have once again been
greenlighted, largely to try to stimulate an economy that has slowed down in recent
years.
In China, every time growth slows down, the government spends billions and billions on
all kinds of projects.
And that explains the huge investment in large coal plants and renewable energy sources.
Literally mountains and mountains have been covered with solar panels, crowned with wind
turbines, and its rivers have been filled with dams for hydroelectric production.
Can you imagine how much money all that cost?
Well, hold on to your hat.
Out of the $ 289 billion that was invested worldwide in renewable energy in 2018, China
invested more than $91 billion, that’s more than 31%.
Knowing this it shouldn’t surprise us to know that some areas in China have been completely
transformed with a 100% man made landscape that goes hand in hand with 100% sustainable
energy.
And thanks to such artificial landscapes, in 2019 China managed to get these great numbers.
(AUDIO: China's renewable power capacity up 9.5% year-on-year in June - Reuters)
So, if you thought it wasn’t possible to be dirty and clean at the same time, you were
clearly wrong.
Just look at China, and its parallel boom in coal plants and sustainable energy production.
An energy mix that, if it were a person, would be two-faced to say the least.
But back to the big question...
Can China kick its coal habit?
Well, let's see, and here’s the problem.
China’s demand for energy is growing so quickly that despite the enormous investment
that the central government has made, renewables can’t replace other more-polluting energy
sources, as they struggle to cover the growth in demand.
And that’s precisely where the Chinese government’s other big bet comes in: nuclear energy.
Check this out, China currently has 46 operational reactors and another 11 under construction.
(CHART)
But that’s only the beginning.
Recently the State Nuclear Energy Technology Corporation announced that the country will
build at least 60 new nuclear reactors over the next decade.
To date, 43 have already been planned, approved and have the necessary financing to be built.
(CHART)
And that's not all, an additional 136 projects have been formally proposed to be analysed.
This makes sense because we’re talking about a country where nuclear energy isn’t taboo.
In fact, we can find initiatives as curious as that of the China General Nuclear Power
Group (CGN), which even invited couples to celebrate their weddings at the Daya Bay nuclear
power plant in Shenzhen.
Of course, in exchange they had to post their wedding photos online.
China is betting heavily on nuclear energy to complement its renewable energy sources.
And it’s important to keep in mind that with its current hunger for energy, nuclear
energy looks like the only possible option for the Asian giant if it is to reduce its
dependence on coal.
Anyway, now it’s your turn:
What do you think?
Can China effectively abandon coal, stop building plants and start dismantling them while its
industry continues to grow?
Will China ever shake its image as an environmentally hostile place and be seen as an example of
clean energy?
What do you think of the decision to reverse the shutdown of the new coal plants, which
goes against China's commitments in the Paris Agreement?
Leave your answer in the comments.
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