In this series, we will analyse teams, identify problem areas, and suggest
solutions in the form of incoming players.
We won’t follow gossip, rumours or conjecture. We’re concerned
only with a player’s on-field performance and their suitability for the role in question.
Today’s team is Tottenham Hotspur, welcome to Sensible Transfers.
The appointment of Antonio Conte seems to have arrested Spurs’ decline.
However, with the Italian will come the expectation for spending
and for improving a squad which has become imbalanced and inadequate in several key areas.
Tottenham need a proper back-up to Harry Kane and, if he doesn’t sign a new contract,
will need to replace club captain Hugo Lloris too, but we’ve focussed on the two
most pressing issues: Improving Conte’s options in central midfield and strengthening his back three.
Tottenham’s midfield doesn’t just have one flaw, but it’s most inhibiting weakness is
a lack of passing quality. Antonio Conte’s 3-4-3 allows for two central midfielders
and with Tanguy Ndombele yet to earn his manager’s trust and Giovani Lo Celso
rarely fit and available, Conte has typically chosen Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Oliver Skipp.
Both are capable players, Skipp might yet become an excellent one,
but they are volume passers rather than progressive ones and neither specialises
in advancing the ball in a way that would benefit the team’s powerful front-three.
Of the two, Hojbjerg has the more aggressive distribution,
but his 5.13 progressive passes per 90 is hardly spectacular. In fact, it’s quite conservative.
In addition to which, neither Skipp nor Hojbjerg habitually carry the ball forward, averaging 4.07
and 4.02 progressive carries per 90 respectively. Unremarkable numbers again and further descriptive
of Tottenham’s main condition in midfield – these players are too similar and they’re too lateral.
In response, the side desperately needs more adventure and the kind of passing
quality it lost with Christian Eriksen’s sale in January 2020.
Inter Milan’s Marcelo Brozovic would be a fine option. Conte has worked successfully
with the Croatian before, of course, and Fabio Paratici, Spurs Managing Director of Football,
has shown a preference for shopping in the Italian market that he knows so well.
Brozovic is among the most accurate vertical passers in European football.
He can also be depended upon to find teammates inside the final third and the penalty box,
as well as being a receiving option across all areas of the pitch.
He’s a good set-piece taker, too, which is something Spurs also require.
But Brozovic is 29 and while Daniel Levy has indicated his ambition by appointing Conte,
he’s unlikely to sanction a big deal for a player with little resale value.
That’s why our pick is Bruno Guimaraes, the 24-year-old Brazilian midfielder from Lyon.
Guimaraes would complement either Hojbjerg or Skipp and would significantly upgrade Tottenham’s
passing without sacrificing any defensive security. In fact, he’s a decisive enough
passer to be considered a genuine playmaker, and he’s an extremely accomplished dribbler
too. He also happens to be one of the most reliable midfield ball-winners in Ligue1,
which probably makes him better suited to playing in this particular midfield.
So: very good without the ball and terrific and forward-thinking with it.
Bruno Guimaraes would make Spurs instantly better, and he’s our first Sensible Transfer.
Our second needs to address another quality that Spurs have lost.
Mauricio Pochettino’s trusted combination of Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen,
often supplemented by Davinson Sanchez, was a very complete unit, comprising every ability
expected of a modern defence. Several years later, that’s no longer the case.
Alderweireld and Vertonghen grew older and left, Sanchez’s form has partially collapsed.
Since arriving, Conte has built a makeshift back-three from Eric Dier,
Sanchez, and Ben Davies, with Cristian Romero sidelined by a long-term hamstring injury.
But even with Romero fit and acknowledging some of
the improvements the individual players have made – particularly the adapted Davies - the
group still lacks the clean tackling and outstanding distribution that it once had.
For symmetry, it could certainly do with another left-footed player, too, and someone
who can replicate the reliability and threat of Alderweireld’s medium and long-range passing.
Converted full-back Ben Davies is averaging 3.7 passes into the final third,
good enough to be the highest among the other starting defenders,
but sufficient only for the 73rd percentile in comparison to other centre-backs.
Again, like the midfield, Tottenham’s defence is
more shield than sword and it must become a lot less passive.
Barcelona’s Clement Lenglet could be a solution to that. Lenglet’s contract runs until 2026, but –
like a few others – it’s one that the Catalan club would probably like to get off their books. Added
to the informal understanding that everyone at Camp Nou has their price, Lenglet would certainly
be available. His distribution is truly excellent and, as you’d expect, he’s very natural when
carrying the ball and, in relative centre-back terms, would actually be an attacking asset.
But a defensive improvement? That’s debatable – Lenglet has had some ugly moments at Barcelona
and made plenty of high-profile mistakes. His loss of confidence would probably be exacerbated
by the speed of the Premier League, if that would be a move he’d even want.
There are too many doubts with too much money at stake. So, our pick is Facundo Medina. He’s 22,
left-footed, and playing on the left side of Lens’ back-three.
An Argentinian international, Medina has been in Europe for eighteen months now
and while his first half-season was littered with disciplinary issues and impetuousness remains
part of his game, that’s a competitiveness and bite that Spurs could probably use.
As they could his distribution, which is the strongest part of his game. The passes he cuts
into midfield and sometimes further are attractive and would help diversify Spurs’ transitions out of
defence, but his propensity to drill the ball crossfield would complement Conte’s
high wing-backs very nicely and potentially give the side an extra attacking facility.
He’s far from being a finished product without the ball; Medina isn’t the cleanest tackler
and his inexperience can show in impulsive and rash moments. Nevertheless, he held his own in
Lens’ 1-1 draw with Paris Saint-Germain in early December, playing well on the left of a back-three
which was facing Achraf Hakimi and Lionel Messi, which is as much quality as Ligue 1 possesses.
And – ultimately – this will likely have to be a leap of faith. With a
big fee still to pay for Cristian Romero in the summer, Antonio Conte will likely
be restricted in what he can spend on another centre-back. Medina would be a good compromise
and that makes him our second Sensible Transfer.