Things are looking grim for Vladimir Putin as the Ukraine war spirals out of control.
His troops are being routed, and devastating sanctions continue to ruin the Russian economy.
His response has been to escalate further - shelling Ukrainian civilians indiscriminately
and threatening the use of nuclear weapons.
He’s even ordered a partial mobilization of Russian troops - a mass draft that looks
to send hundreds of thousands of troops into harm’s way with little training and sub-par
weapons.
Surely he won’t have the public support to win the next election with this kind of
performance!
Yeah, not so much - because while Vladimir Putin is technically elected democratically,
his regime is anything but free and fair.
Elections in Russia tend to be a pre-ordained affair, with Putin’s party winning overwhelmingly
and opposition leaders frequently being arrested or disqualified by the government.
The one time Putin left office since taking becoming president in the early 2000s was
due to term limits - and he set his second-in-command Dmitry Medvedev up to take his place while
he took the #2 seat.
Medvedev then changed the law to remove the term limits, and Putin was right back in two
years later!
So Putin clearly isn’t going away any time soon.
The most recent Russian legislative elections in 2021 saw Putin - running under the “Independent”
line which only represents his personal political brand - win over three-fourths of the vote,
with the only other candidates getting more than two percent of the votes being the remnants
of the old Communist party, and the eccentric fascist party led by long-time Russian crank
candidate Vladimir Zhirinovsky.
All major reform parties barely charted - and most had been outlawed or otherwise restricted.
And the opposition often has more to worry about than just being banned from running.
Most famously, global anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny was penalized by Russia on
trumped-up charges, then poisoned by Putin while abroad - and then sentenced to prison
in Russia for failing to appear in court on time while he was in the hospital.
Even more of an escalation, Putin’s allies in Belarus forced an Irish plane carrying
a Belarusian opposition leader to land under false pretenses, and then arrested their target
while he was on another country’s plane.
It’s clear that Putin’s intention is to make the price of opposition far too high
for anyone to be willing to pay.
That’s what the other guys thought too.
Russia has a long history of taking care of business when the leader is deeply unpopular
and not receptive to change.
Most famously, Tsar Nicholas II saw himself deposed and later murdered by revolutionary
forces, leading to the rise of the Soviet Union.
And over half a century later, the last Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev saw his empire undone
by mass protests that led to the toppling of the Berlin Wall, and was then overthrown
by hard-line Communist forces - who were then promptly overthrown by democratic forces.
Is the same about to happen to Putin?
If Putin is removed fro power, it won’t be through elections, as he’s quickly consolidated
the power of the ballot box.
But it wasn’t elections that did in the Tsar or Gorbachev, and there’s one thing
Putin can’t account for - the power of the people.
Russians were largely in favor of the Ukraine war as first, as Putin boasted of restoring
the glory of the Russian empire.
Then their tanks and ships started being blown up, the sanctions cut them off from the rest
of the world, and platoon after platoon of Russian men wound up coming home in coffins.
The situation was bad enough - and then the draft started, with reports of it being concentrated
in ethnic minority areas that Putin was happy to turn into cannon fodder.
And soon enough, people filled the streets.
Protests were taking place as soon as the war began, and they were met with strong opposition
from the government.
Those who participated were quickly arrested, often charged with serious crimes like sedition,
and new laws were passed banning anti-war statements.
Even those who simply signed petitions have been targeted.
It sent the anti-war movement underground for a long time, but with the introduction
of the mobilization and conscription, many feel like they have nothing to lose.
Within a day of the mobilization announcement on September 21st, new protests had broken
out in the streets - and over two thousand people were quickly arrested.
But the protests are only growing.
Most dramatically, on September 25th, a group of women in the Sakha Republic held a major
rally chanting “We will not give up our husbands”.
Sure enough, the Russian police in the Siberian region soon dispersed the protest, but with
less force than they usually do.
Maybe they were worried about the bad press, or maybe they had some sympathizers in the
security forces.
While those in Putin’s enforcement agencies are very cautious about criticizing the government
in any way, there have been reports of Russian soldiers disobeying orders, trying to surrender
to the Ukrainians, or fleeing to other countries.
But the biggest challenge to Putin may come from within.
Putin is not accountable to anyone - and that’s the problem.
He’s had twenty years to build his network of support, and he’s not taking any chances.
He’s notoriously insular, only surrounds himself with loyalists - and won’t even
let them get close to him!
He’s known for sitting over ten feet away from anyone else in meetings - which likely
results in a lot of yelling.
But as things deteriorate, it’s not clear if even that will save him.
After all, it was Hitler’s elite military officers like Klaus Von Stauffenberg and Erwin
Rommel who eventually plotted to kill him as the war spun out of his control.
And it may be getting out of control awfully fast.
Putin has relied on his military team to deliver victory, and is quick to relieve people of
their duty if they disappoint him.
That’ was what happened to Sergei Shoigu, a General and minister of Defence who was
one of Putin’s most trusted allies since 2012.
An ethnic Tuvan from Siberian, he was seen as a pragmatic leader who was a shrewd military
mind, but as the war went on, his tactics seemed to be too methodical for Putin.
Militants within the administration wanted Shoigu removed.
And his replacement would be even more militant.
Another warrior from an unlikely background, Ramzan Kadyrov is the leader of the Chechen
republic - a Muslim region where Putin brutally put down secession movements in the last decade.
Known for his persecution of his own people, particularly women and gay residents, Kadyrov
became infamous for his brutality during the Ukraine war - which only led Putin to promote
him more.
While Shoigu called for focusing on consolidating Russia’s western gains, Kadyrov was boastfully
saying Russia should use nuclear weapons.
And naturally, that meant it was time for Putin to promote him again!
So the question is, has Putin gotten too powerful to be overthrown?
He controls the levers of the electoral process, most of his opposition is in prison, the security
forces brutally put down any popular resistance, and he replaces his generals and officials
with hard-line loyalists at the drop of a hat.
Any move against him will be extremely hard to pull off and incredibly dangerous for anyone
involved - but that may not be enough to stop it.
After all, for people to sit back and let a dictator run the show, they have to feel
like they have too much to lose from rebelling.
And for most Russians right now, that might not be the case.
Their sons and husbands are being drafted into a meat grinder of a war, their economy
is crashing, and they can’t even get Netflix anymore thanks to sanctions!
And the next protest may be too big to contain.
What happens if tens of thousands of Russians take to the street - not just to protest,
but to fight?
It’s near-impossible to contain something like that, and there are two possible approaches
for a government to take.
In 2020, when the United States was shocked by the murder of George Floyd, massive protests
that turned into riots broke out in major cities.
While the police forces did try to restore order, it was largely ineffective and the
governments mostly allowed the protests to die out rather than trying to bring in federal
troops to restore order.
While there were many arrests in standout cases, even Donald Trump seemed to hesitate
to truly quell them by force - despite many tweets to the contrary.
It took the better part of a week before the large-scale protests died down.
That was NOT the approach taken in another country.
Ever since the revolution in 1979, Iran has occasionally seen major protests - usually
driven by controversies over election results or the treatment of women.
Both under former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and current president Ebrahim Raisi, the government
responded with overwhelming force - often killing protesters in full view of the world
as a way to scare the others out of resisting.
And so far, it’s stopped the government from being overthrown - but in 2022, the protests
don’t seem to be slowing down.
Which route will Putin take?
There are dangers for him in both.
If he chooses to take a hands-off approach to mass protests, it stands the risk of making
him looking ineffectual.
At which point, hardliners might start grumbling that he’s lost his edge and it’s time
for him to step aside.
On the other hand, if he starts ordering the deaths of protesters and committing atrocities
against his own people in plain view, the government might decide he’s become unstable.
Either one could open him up to a palace coup - which might be the biggest threat to his
power.
But would it actually work?
That might depend on one key question.
Outside Russia, NATO and its allies are watching with horror as Putin continues to terrorize
Ukraine.
They provide financial aid and weapons to Ukraine, but their hands are tied - because
Putin is likely to view any direct intervention as an act of war against Russia and kick off
World War III.
So that means any direct move to remove Putin is unlikely - unless it came from within.
If the average Russian has turned against Putin and the war continues to become deeply
unpopular, a resistance leader or even an insider who has decided it’s time to take
Putin out might find covert support from outside the country.
And that could change everything.
Putin is unlikely to be removed from office via conventional means, even if the average
Russian turns against him.
He’s proven he is more than willing to put down popular revolts, and has largely purged
his inner circle of anyone who might be opposed to the current war.
But that won’t protect him if everyone starts to think he’s endangering the future of
Russia itself.
If the pressure builds, a palace coup is the most likely scenario to remove a deeply unpopular
Putin who refuses to compromise.
In that event, the replacement would either be a more pragmatic leader like Shoigu - or
a more radical face who vows to complete the mission Putin failed to, like Kadyrov.
The former is likely to be the choice of a coup organized from within with NATO backing
- but the latter could take advantage of the chaos and rise to power instead.
What would Russia look like under a new leader?
It depends.
The former would likely negotiate a way out with NATO and Ukraine, ordering a cease-fire
and offering them peace in exchange for Russia keeping its current gains.
This might work and it might not, but the goal would be to find a respectful way out
for everyone that would get Russia out from under sanctions and relieve the domestic pressure
its feeling at the moment.
But it’s not likely to result in a turn to democracy for Russia.
The new leader, whoever they are, would be faced with an angry public with lots of demands
- and they would not want to appear weak.
So the odds are that while the tension may drop if Putin is toppled, it would not solve
all of Russia’s larger problems.
Of course, Putin could see the public pressure, realize the error of his ways, and change
course instead of doubling down!
Nah, not likely.
Want to know how Putin has stayed in power this long?
Check out “Insane Ways Putin Survived Assassination Attempts” or watch this video instead.