BROADWAY, WILL BE PHASE FOUR. THE GOVERNOR HAS NOT GIVEN AN
EXACT TIMETABLE FOR THAT.
SAVANNAH.
SAVANNAH. >> ALL RIGHT, GABE.
THANK YOU SO MUCH.
FOR MORE ON THIS BATTLE WITH A
REOPENING AND NEW PROJECTIONS ON
CASES AND DEATHS COULD MEAN, WE
WANT TO TURN TO SCOTT GOTTLIEB,
THE FORMER COMMISSIONER OF NBA,
CNBC CONTRIBUTOR.
CNBC CONTRIBUTOR. LET’S TALK ABOUT THOSE
PROJECTIONS.
PROJECTIONS. THERE WAS THE DRAFT THAT CAME
OUT OF JOHNS HOPKINS.
WE CAN ALMOST SET IT ASIDE
BECAUSE THE AUTHOR OF THAT DRAFT
SAID IT WASN’T READY TO BE
RELEASED.
RELEASED. AT THE SAME TIME WE HAVE THE
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON, WHICH
IS OFTEN CITED BY THE
ADMINISTRATION, REVISING ITS
PROJECTED DEATH TOLL TO 135,000
WHEN IT WAS 70,000 A COUPLE OF
DAYS AGO.
DAYS AGO. THE TREND IS OBVIOUSLY IN ONE
DIRECTION.
DIRECTION. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF IT?
>> LOOK, WE STILL HAVE A HIGH
LEVEL OF INFECTION IN THE
COUNTRY.
COUNTRY. WE AREN’T REACHING DECLINES WE
WANTED TO SEE.
CASES ARE LIKELY TO GO UP, NOT
DOWN.
DOWN. WE’RE LIKELY TO SEE CASE COUNTS
INCREASE.
INCREASE. THE MITIGATION STEPS WE TOOK
WERE IN THE EVENT TO KEEP THE
HEALTH CARE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING
OVERWHELMED AND THEY DID THAT.
THEY NEVER CAME OVERRUN.
THEY ARE A BRIDGE, NOT A
SOLUTION.
SOLUTION. THEY ARE IN THE GOING TO END
TRANSMISSION OF THIS VIRUS.
WE DID THINK WE WOULD BE AT
LOWER LEVELS AT THIS POINT WHEN
WE STARTED CONTEMPLATING OPENING
AREAS OF THE ECONOMY.
IN MAY WE’LL LIKELY SEE THE CASE
COUNT GO UP AGAIN.
>> THAT’S WHAT I’M TRYING TO
UNDERSTAND HERE.
UNDERSTAND HERE. WE ALL REMEMBER, I BELIEVE IT
WAS IN LATE MARCH, WHEN THE
WHITE HOUSE SAID WE COULD SEE A
DEATH TOLL OF 100 TO 240,000.
A FEW WEEKS LATER, MEMBERS OF
THE ADMINISTRATION, DR. FAUCI,
THE MODELER, EVERYONE SEEMED TO
AGREE, WE THINK WE CAN GET IT
LOWER.
LOWER. NOW WE’RE ALREADY AT 70,000 AND
SEEING PROJECT SHUNS DO WAY BACK
UP AGAIN.
UP AGAIN. DID SOCIAL DISTANCING REALLY NOT
GET IT DONE TO THE EXTENT THAT
WAS EXPECTED?
WAS EXPECTED? >> DEPENDS HOW YOUR ASSESSING
IT.
IT. IN TERMS OF FLATTENING THE CURVE
AND NOT LETTING THE HOSPITAL
SYSTEM GET OVERRUN IT WORKED
WELL.
WELL. IN TERMS OF A PEAK OR DECLINE,
WE’VE BEEN AT 30,000 CASES A DAY
AND 2,000 DEATHS FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME.
WE HAVEN’T STARTED TO SEE THE
DECLINES WE EXPECTED TO SEE
RIGHT NOW.
RIGHT NOW. REMEMBER, MODELING IS IMPRECISE.
THAT’S WHY WE SHOULDN’T PUT
STOCK IN ONE MODEL.
IT’S NOT LIKE FORECASTING
WEATHER AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
YOU MAKE PREDICTIONS AND TAKE
ACTIONS ON THE PREDICTIONS AND
MODEL THE OUTCOME BASED ON WHAT
YOU’RE GETTING.
YOU’RE GETTING. WE TOOK ACTIONS, GOT MORE
STRIPPINGENT THAT SHOWED EARLY
MODELS WITH GRIM FORECAST, SOME
DIDN’T COME TO PASS.
I CERTAINLY EXPECTED WE WOULD
SEE DECLINES AROUND THE COUNTRY.
ONCE YOU BACK OUT NEW YORK, WE
HAVE SEEN THOSE SUSTAINED
DECLINES AROUND THE REST OF THE
COMPANY CASES ARE GOING UP.
THERE’S ABOUT 20 CASES WHERE
CASES ARE GOING UP ON A DAILY
BASIS AND SO ARE
HOSPITALIZATIONS.
HOSPITALIZATIONS. >> THAT’S WHAT’S KIND OF
SURPRISING ABOUT ALL OF THIS.
NO QUESTION THE MITIGATION
WORKED AND HOSPITALS WEREN’T
OVERRUN, HEALTH CARE WORKERS
WEREN’T OVERRUN.
WEREN’T OVERRUN. GRANTED THEY HAVE HAD TO DEAL
WITH UNPRECEDENTED AMOUNT OF
SICKNESS AND DISEASE.
AT THE SAME TIME YOU’RE ALSO
SAYING WE’RE NOT SEEING THOSE
DECLINES.
DECLINES. WE’RE SEEING A PLATEAU OR EVEN
GOING UP, IF YOU TAKE OUT NEW
YORK, WHICH WAS THE EPICENTER.
>> THAT’S RIGHT.
I THINK THAT WE NEED TO
UNDERSTAND THIS MAY BE THE NEW
NORMAL.
NORMAL. WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET
TRANSMISSION DOWN MUCH MORE.
I HOPE WE CAN.
AS WE REOPEN THE COUNTRY AGAINST
THE BACKDROP WHERE THERE ARE
TENS OF THOUSANDS OF CASES A
DAY, MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WHERE
CASES GO UP, NOT DOWN.
WE NEED TO THINK WHAT IT LOOKS
LIKE IN THE COUNTRY IF WE HAVE
TRANSMISSION OF THIS VIRUS, AND
WE TRY TO GET BACK TO SOME SENSE
OF NORMALCY.
OF NORMALCY. I THINK IT MEANS WE HAVE TO
PROTECT VULNERABLE POPULATIONS,
WHICH HE SAID UP BEING
DISADVANTAGED AMERICANS, PEOPLE
WHO WORK WHERE THEY CAN’T
SOCIALLY DISTANCE.
SOCIALLY DISTANCE. THAT’S WHY YOU SEE OUTBREAKS ON
FLOORS LIKE MEAT PACKING PLANTS.
WE HAVE TO GET PERSONAL
PROTECTION INTO THOSE SETTINGS
SO PEOPLE CAN PROTECT THEMSELVES
AT WORK.
AT WORK. WE NEED TO PROTECT VULNERABILITY
WHERE THE VIRUS SPREADS, CERTAIN
POPULATIONS ARE MORE VULNERABLE
TO IT AND WE NEED TO DO MORE TO
PROTECT THEM.
PROTECT THEM. >> YEAH.
>> YEAH. WE’VE GOT TO BE SO, SO CAREFUL,