There's always downside risk, and I've said this before, but I think
it's especially true right now, that especially in silver, downside
risk is very small relative to the upside potential over the next few
quarters, but you know, I still think you know, 40 50 dollar silver is
coming in the next, you know, let's let's call your so if not sooner.
Yeah, gold has held its been more resilient than silver.
It did lose support its 200-day, moving average, but I've been saying
from the beginning, I think you and I spoke when gold was up at 2078
on March 8th with that war premium at at speak that, you know, we're
expecting a pullback.
I wasn't expecting quite this much of a pullback, but as long as we
make a higher high above, 1780 were in an uptrend.
So gold is still in an uptrend.
It may not feel like it, but that's what an uptrend is it.
Our highs and higher lows.
So as long as 1780 holds gold remains in an uptrend and I think that's
very likely to hold.
I think we're due for a Sharp bounce.
I'm not really looking lower.
I've been accumulating aggressively here and even taking on some
trading positions.
I can't wait to see today's commitment of Traders report because it
was starting to get pretty bullish and silver and even last week.
And then we've had, you know, it's been down for however many
consecutive days.
So I think the co T is going to be incredibly bullish, were extremely
over sold sentiment.
Is down in the dumps.
This is an environment where you could see a really quick bounce.
So the question is going to be if and when we get this bounce, is it a
dead cat bounce?
Where you come back and make a lower low?
Or have?
We seen the worst of it that question remains to be answered but I
think, you know, we're more than likely very closer, much closer to a
bottom than any kind of top.
That's for sure.
I see them moving in opposite directions over longer periods of time
gold and general.
Equities have a
Strong inverse correlation and they bull markets, typically Peak
around a one-to-one ratio, Dow gold ratio 1980, Dow dropped to 850
gold rose to 850.
There's your one-to-one ratio of something.
Similar happened in the 30s.
And I think we're going to see that again over in the years ahead.
Not in the very short term.
But yeah, I think gold is going to outperform General equities by a
wide margin that could that could look a lot of different ways
depending on what happens to the currency in a runaway inflation.
Varmint you could see stocks continue to move higher.
Just gold moves up faster.
Or, you know, stocks could correct pullback and gold Rises and they
meet in the middle.
I'm not sure how that ratio looks, but I'm looking for that ratio to
compress.
Yep.
I think the FED is is trapped.
But I do think they're going to reverse.
I'm very confident that's going to happen.
But, you know, I think they kind of wanted to let some air out of this
bubble because the by letting the stock, you know, asset prices
correct, not just stocks, but real estate things like that bonds.
It kind of puts disinflationary pressures on the economy.
So they can say,
Look at inflation is coming down.
Our policies are working.
So I think they're content a little bit, let some air out of this
bubble.
But the same time, they don't want to crash on their hands either.
So I think they're going to reverse course probably in the next few
months of September October November is would be a good time frame for
for that to happen, stocks and the metals are markets, are forward
looking.
So I think before you hear about any kind of fed pivot, the markets
are going to recognize that ahead of time specifically bonds and the
metals.
And then
Usually, the stock market's the last or wake up, but I think all of
them will probably, you know, reverse higher, including General,
equities.
You know, we're I think we're due for a bounce here and I think the
markets will anticipate that fed pivot.
Real rates are still - but they've been trending higher.
And the metals have responded accordingly.
Just like you said, you know, they pulled back in accordance with
those Rising real rates, but they're still - and I don't think it's
possible.
Well shouldn't say possible, but it's highly highly unlikely.
We get positive real rates anytime soon.
If we did, you know, that's a sell signal for the metals.
But I think that's highly unlikely because inflation still north of 8
percent and the 10 years still at three percent.
So that's if you use that metric, there's different ways to measure
it.
But still negative, real rates of five percent, which is, you know,
that's a Tailwind for the metals, you know, could that Gap narrow?
A little bit?
Yeah, it could over the short term, but I don't think we're going to
get to positive real rates anytime soon.
Yeah.
I love Platinum right now.
Platinum is pulled back to some
Key support right around $900.
It's bounced it since bounced, but $900 is key support and platinum
below there.
You've got about 750 as long-term support and I accumulate a little
bit of platinum each month and I'm happy to do so near these levels.
Anything below a thousand dollar Platinum.
I think is a gift if you've got a longer term time Horizon.
But yeah, you mentioned other markets not to go on a tangent, but to
sum things up, interest rates are extremely overbought.
The 10 years, extremely overbought on the yield up.
Major resistance around three, point-two percent on the yield.
The dollar is extremely overbought against 104 resistance.
So I think it's highly likely over the short term.
We see a reversal and those two things those two assets.
Meanwhile silver silver miners are extremely oversold against support.
So I think we're likely to see what's happened in the last few weeks
kind of unwind here, but the question is, you know, is it, is that a
dead cat bounce or is it a trend reversal?
So that's the big question will have to watch for the next week or two
reclaiming, the 200-day moving average.
Rich in Gold Silver and some of the Mining stock ETFs.
That would be a big indication that we've seen a trend reversal.
The lows are in getting back above that.
200-day will be the first step towards a technical reversal.
I've almost like you said, almost everything is pulled back, uranium
miners, have pulled back to.
I've been content.
I got in really early into that sector.
So I've been content to just holding what I have, but I actually added
last week for the or this past week for the first time in quite a
while.
Some of these stocks.
Energy Fuels, for example, it's kind of a Bellwether.
That one was up around $11 just a month or a couple months ago and it
fell back into the 50s.
It was down by 50% and uranium, that actual metal is above $50.
So I think, for those looking to accumulate uranium miners, this is a
really, this is a gift for those looking to accumulate.
I think uranium is going a lot higher and as those mining stocks have
a lot of upside potential, there's always downside risk, and I've said
this before, but I think it's especially true right now.
Now that especially in silver, downside risk is very small relative to
the upside potential over the next few quarters.
The next support level.
We lost key support a $21 2141 to be exact so we drop below that the
next support is at 1970 and then below there, you've got support
between around 1850.
So I see that as most likely a worst-case scenario.
I'm not predicting that.
We fall back that far, but that's the downside risk, which is only a
couple of couple dollars.
But, you know, I still think, you know, 40 50.
Silver is coming in the next, you know, let's let's call your.
So if not sooner when you're in an environment like this.
If you're looking waiting for a dip further dip to buy physical often,
you know, any drop in the paper price of Silver's offset by are equal
rise in the premiums.
So, you know, it's hard to get silver for less than $20, for actually
to get it, you know, physical silver in your hand that you can touch.
Yep.
So a couple things there that that is certainly possible.
If you get some kind of really quick Spike low, but
I think it was like March 16th 2020.
Was that covid.
Spike low, you talked about when we went down to eleven dollars and
that was the paper price, but you couldn't really get physical metal
for that cheap.
The maybe physical felt in Sixteen Seventeen dollars or so something
like that.
And that was very very short-lived that lasted a few days.
So something like that is always an outside possibility as well.
But I just can't see price staying below 1850 or so.
For more than you know, very very brief period of time, the all in
sustaining costs for most of these mining companies.
Around eighteen nineteen dollars and those those input costs are
rising with the price of diesel and fuel going up as well.
So it's hard for a commodity like silver to stay below its cost of
production, for more than just a very, very brief period of time.