In my previous video on positive and negative feedback loops in F1, I talked about how one
way of holding back the runaway spread between the successful and the struggling was to introduce
negative feedback loops - that is: little mechanisms within the rules that mean the
better placed teams have to work a little bit harder the more successful they are; or
by giving the lower teams a little bonus or a slightly easier time to give them the chance
to catch up. One extreme example I gave - not as a genuine
solution but more to illustrate the point - was the idea of reverse grids, wherein the
grid order would be set either by reverse championship order or by reversing the finishing
order of the previous race. Either way it would set the winning drivers
to the back of the grid and but the less successful cars closer to pole position. This way, those
enjoying the most success would have to fight their way through the field if they wanted
to keep earning points and wins and stay near the top of the standings.
This would be extremely entertaining to watch but is somewhat hamfisted and artificial.
Plus it takes away from the fun of the actual qualifying event, which can sometimes be the
most nail-biting part of the whole weekend. On top of that, it can also be gamed to a
certain degree with drivers dropping out of a previous race early if they think it’ll
give them a slightly better grid slot. It has its problems, for sure.
So Formula E then. For season 5, Formula E has managed to introduce a system that still
allows for a competitive, tense and entertaining qualifying session but makes things quite
a bit trickier for the championship leaders resulting in more mixed grids, unexpected
results, battling races and… frustrated drivers.
But we like a frustrated driver. Can’t have it too easy for them - got to keep them on
their toes, right? So, the very simple idea that Formule E implements
is group qualifying, with the groups arranged in championship order.
Drivers go out in groups of five or six with each group getting just six minutes to go
out and set a time. After everyone has had a go, the fastest six drivers get to have
another crack at a lap to try and grab pole position.
The key element of this is the way the groups are ordered. The first group to go out is
made of the top five drivers in the championship standings. The next group is the next five
drivers in the championship, followed by the next six, and then the final six. So the more
points you have in the championship fight, the earlier in the qualifying session you’ll
go out to set your time. Formula E qualifying sessions have demonstrated
clearly that the track tends to improve as time goes on through the session. So the later
a slot you’re given the better the chance you have of setting a faster lap. The track
evolves with runtime, sometimes quite dramatically. Going out first, as the championship leaders
must, is a disadvantage as the track is less grippy and therefore making it much trickier
to nail your lap. The evidence of this disadvantage becomes
clear when looking at the Group 1s in qualifying across season 5.
Ignoring Round 1, where the qualifying system was rejigged due to weather delays, on average
less than one driver from Group 1 made it through to the Super Pole shootout at each
event. That is, of the 39 drivers who managed to
put in a lap from Group 1 over the se eight qualifying sessions, only seven of the were
fast enough to make the top six of the 22 places on the grid.
The average qualifying position for Group 1 drivers over rounds two to nine is just
13th position. Now 13th is fairly near the middle of the grid so you may think that ends
up pretty fair as it’s close enough to being gridded at random.
But these are the championship leaders. In theory you’d expect them to be qualifying
at least in the top half of the grid on average. So we now have a system that put the leaders
on the back foot somewhat going into a race. If you’re fighting for the head of the championship
you’re going to have to work even harder at the next race.
Qualifying will be trickier for you and you’re more likely to have to fight through the field
if you want to keep getting points race on race.
The question is: is this a good thing? Is this good for Formula E? There’s not an
easy answer to this. Formula E doesn’t have some of the problems
intrinsic to modern F1 that stifle competition so it’s less in need of negative feedback
loops to inject some life and fairness back into the sport.
On the other hand, anything that encourages the so-called ‘best of the field’ to prove
themselves race-on-race by asking them to fight their way to the front is both great
entertainment and the ultimate test of their abilities.
Formula E may have more wheel to wheel racing and argy-bargy overtaking in general, but
with energy conservation a key part of winning races, having the best drivers at the front
of the grid will only encourage them to take a more measured pace in the same way that
F1 drivers like to slow down and look after their tyres rather than pelt it round lap
after lap. Instead, we get the ‘best’ drivers often
having to work extra hard in qualifying to overcome poorer track conditions and/or fight
their way through in the race to keep earning points, podiums and wins.
And some drivers can do it. A lot of the ‘doomed’ qualifying Group 1 lot do get back to some
decent positions consistently on race day. But also we managed to get eight different
winners in the first eight races and seven different pole sitters in the first seven
races. Which is super fun. Is it pure? Probably not, but as I’ve said
before - is anything? What does that even mean when you try and break it down? Someone
has to go out earliest in qualifying so why not the people with the existing advantage?
Over time the best person should still win anyway as they have to deliver great race
results consistently - and that’s the key here. They have to keep proving their skill
even as the negative feedback loop tugs them backwards again. No one will win the championship
by accident, here. For me, it works. I can see why drivers moan
about it but… I’m willing to let them moan. It’s an interested added twist that
feed brilliantly into the competitive sessions. Would this kind of thing work in F1? Quite
possibly, though I think qualifying is the least of F1’s worries right now. There are…
a number of other things that need changing first.