As of the writing of this episode, rumors abound from the hermit kingdom of North Korea
indicating that its supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, may have suffered a serious health event.
Some even claim that the Dear Leader is in fact dead, news that has sent the intelligence
agencies of every western nation, as well as those of Japan and South Korea, in a mad
scramble to discover the truth.
As of this episode's writing, Japanese media outlets have reported that the North Korean
leader is in a “vegetative state” though the rumors have yet to be substantiated.
Careful observation of North Korean military forces and communication patterns seem to
indicate that there is nothing out of the ordinary going on in the secret kingdom, but
it’s impossible to say for certain yet what’s REALLY happening north of the demilitarized
zone.
But what if Kim Jong-un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, Chairman of the Workers' Party,
and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces really did die?
What would that mean for North Korea, and what would it mean for the rest of the world?
The question of North Korean succession has always been a tricky one.
Kim Il-sung, the founder and first supreme leader of North Korea, understood that governments
underwent their greatest reformations during power transitions, and thus labored to create
a monarchic communist system that would ensure little if any change took place after his
death.
In a traditional communist state, the Party Secretary-General, is elected by the national
people's committee, which is itself made of members elected into office by the various
districts that they represent.
Needless to say, in North Korea there's not much voting of any sort, and certainly not
from the average people.
In North Korea, this Soviet-style process is completely circumvented.
The national people's committee is instead made up of appointments by the supreme leader
himself, based on the loyalty of candidates, their merits, and recommendations from other
senior- and completely loyal- party officials.
In order to ensure the smooth transfer of power, and their own continued survival, each
Kim family member to take the throne has labored to fill the national committee with loyalists
who will not challenge their power, or their choice of successor.
However, having a clear successor in the first place is important- and Kim Jong-un lacks
such a line of succession.
When Kim Il-sung neared his death, he quickly began to groom his son, Kim Jong-il, to take
power once he was gone.
Kim Jong-il took on increasing government responsibility, giving him an air of legitimacy
and competency long before his father actually died.
As Kim Jong-il neared his own death, which was more sudden and unexpected than that of
Kim Il-sung, he hastily appointed Kim Jong-un as his successor.
The sudden appointment left many in doubt as to the future of the Kim dynasty in North
Korea.
At 28 years old, Kim Jong-un was not only young, but inexperienced in leadership and
the particular political intrigue of North Korea.
He was quickly appointed to senior government and party positions, including the powerful
National Defense Commission, and was granted the rank of a four star general despite having
no military experience.
Senior party and military officials were immediately assigned to him as mentors, and it quickly
became clear to all that Kim Jong-il was planning for his young son to take over after his death.
Despite all the preparation though, the initial transition period was fraught with uncertainties.
Even with his grooming and training, many believed that Kim Jong-un was too young, inexperienced,
and weak to lead, and most analysts suspected that ultimately while he may remain on the
throne, other more powerful political elite within North Korea would be calling the shots.
In effect, Kim Jong-un would become a figurehead and nothing more, with his puppet strings
being pulled by those behind the scenes.
It was believed that vice-chairman Jang Song Thaek would either outright take the throne,
or call the real shots in North Korea, or that the military would turn against the young
Kim Jong-un and manipulate him under threat of death.
Any number of his senior mentors were also believed to be in the running for ousting
the new Kim, or simply becoming the shadow princes behind the throne.
Much to the shock of everyone, none of those things happened, and instead Kim Jong-un proved
just as ruthless as his predecessors in consolidating power.
Most of his mentors, some of whom were suspected of outright trying to manipulate Kim, were
killed or sent to prison camps, and a purge amongst the rest of the party elite removed
any threats to Kim's power- going so far as to kill or imprison men who had been faithfully
loyal to his father for decades.
Even Kim's own family members weren't safe, Kim Jong-nam, his brother-in-law, held no
interest in political power, yet that did not save him from Kim Jong-un sending assassins
to kill him while on a trip in Malaysia.
While Kim Jong-nam may have had no aspirations for power, Kim Jong-un likely feared that
the political elite within North Korea might use him as a figurehead to install on the
throne after overthrowing Kim Jong-un.
He likely also feared that Kim Jong-nam would be installed by South Korea and US forces
after a war against the north.
Kim Jong-un very quickly eliminated all rivals and possible successors to his father's throne,
cementing himself as the top leader in North Korea.
In order to fend the powerful North Korean military off, the biggest threat to his power,
Kim Jong-un also instituted a 'military-first' policy that saw the military receive priority
treatment from the new government.
While successful, Kim Jong-un's transition to power had the benefit of two years of careful
grooming by his father, and a new succession would not.
If the supreme leader died today, North Korea may look very different tomorrow.
Kim Jong-un has no clear successor, and it's believed that in the case of his untimely
death, it would be his sister, Kim Yo-jong, who would be granted power.
This would be a dangerous proposition for the Kim dynasty though, since while Kim Yo-jong
holds some position of political power in North Korea, the overwhelmingly patriarchal
social structure of North Korea would likely see her regarded by many as an illegitimate
ruler.
Kim Yo-jong, would have to be twice as ruthless as her brother if she wanted to retain power,
and yet in the end, she might not be able to fend off a coup from within.
While a member of the Kim family and a direct descendant of the original supreme leader,
to whom all Kim family members owe their legitimacy to, the fact that Kim Yo-jong is a woman would
seriously weaken her claim to power.
It's likely then that if Kim Yo-jong did retain leadership, she would serve as nothing more
than a figurehead, exactly the fate that Kim Jong-un feared so much.
However, she might very well be ousted completely, and there are two major threats to her power.
The first comes from Choe Ryong-hae, who is currently the country's number two man.
A ruthless political elite with decades of experience and a direct link to Kim Jong-il
as his trusted confidant, not only does Choe Ryong-hae have a great deal of legitimacy
as a political leader, his personal relationship with Kim Jong-il gives him some legitimacy
with the Kim dynasty itself.
As it's unlikely that the entire concept of a Kim dynasty would be trashed overnight,
the hero-worship of Kim Il-sung is simply too deeply entrenched in North Korean culture
for that, having Choe Ryong-hae step in as leader would likely be seen as acceptable
to the North Korean people.
Especially if it was a quote- temporary measure- end quote, until a true Kim successor could
be named.
In this case, Kim Yo-jong would likely be left in a position of power, though it would
be Choe Ryong-hae who called all the shots.
Kim Yo-jong’s only role would be to serve as a link to the Kim dynasty, though inevitably,
she might suffer a 'terrible accident'.
After all, if Choe Ryong-hae is only acting as regent until a worthy Kim successor can
be found, then one of her sons could eventually take power for himself away from Choe Ryong-hae.
Along with Kim Yo-jong, a large number of Kim family members would likely meet with
similar accidents.
The second threat to Kim Yo-jong’s throne would come from the military itself, the single
most powerful apparatus within the nation.
While Kim Jong-un's 'military first' policy was meant to earn him the loyalty of the military-
and it did- it has also served to cement its power in North Korean politics, and no successor
to the Kim dynasty could take the role of supreme leader without their support- whether
an actual Kim family member or an outsider.
The military could not only seize power in the event of Kim Jong-un's sudden death, it's
very well positioned to do so.
Not only is it the largest martial force in North Korea, its members also have deep ties
to the national security agencies of the nation.
No leader will take the North Korean throne without their approval.
The most important thing though is if a successor comes from within the Kim family or not, as
that will dictate how North Korea interacts with the world.
While a Kim family member could over time change North Korea's relationship with the
world, it would be an extremely slow and protracted process.
Currently, the nation is ostracized by the world and economically sanctioned over its
nuclear program and small stockpile of nuclear weapons.
The international bloc standing against North Korea is led by the United States, which has
made it clear it will not entertain any negotiations that don't include nuclear disarmament.
This however is a problem for a Kim family member, as nuclear weapons are deeply tied
to the legacy of the Kim dynasty.
Kim Jong-un himself depended on the success of the nation's nuclear program, and had it
failed to produce a working nuclear weapon it's widely believed he would have been forcibly
removed from power.
In many ways, his continued hold on power is still dependent on nuclear weapons, and
any abandonment of the North's nuclear program would be seen as treason against both Kim
Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, as well as deeply anger the powerful military.
If a new Kim family member were to take power, abandonment of the nuclear program would be
tantamount to suicide.
In a sense, a new Kim ruler has their hands tied at the international negotiation table
with regards to nuclear disarmament, and for now the issue of North Korean nuke development
is a moot one- national policy will likely never change as long as a Kim rules.
However, an outsider such as Choe Ryong-hae could afford to institute major reforms if
he wanted to.
That is of course if he could find a way to keep the military from immediately removing
him if he threatened to disarm their nuclear weapons.
The prospects of having sanctions lifted and the massive economic benefit and international
aid that would come as a result could be very appealing to many party officials though,
and even some senior military leaders.
It would certainly be so for the average North Korea citizen, who could see their lifestyle
radically changed thanks to an influx of foreign aid and investment as the hermit kingdom rejoins
the world.
Certainly the prosperity of South Korea is a powerful lure to a possible successor to
Kim Jong-un, and even if the military did not support nuclear disarmament and other
major reforms, the citizens who would at last receive international aid and economic revival
could make it very difficult for the military to replace a reformist leader.
Whatever happens in North Korea's future, it's clear that the only real chance for change
is if a non-Kim family member were to take power.
Now for more on North Korea go watch “How Cruel Is North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Un?”
and “What It Is REALLY Like Living In North Korea?”