Hello, this is the sugarcane rainfall outlook for the north growing district of Queensland
updated on the 27th of April 2023. This outlook will show the north sugarcane growing area of
Queensland from Herbert up to Innisfail first looking at recent conditions, and then the
rainfall outlook for the coming fortnight, and then the next six months out to October.
On the next slide, on the right hand side we see a map of the Outlook area we'll be covering today,
on the left rainfall totals for the month of April so far to the 25th. As you can see for
the map with these blue and purple dots quite a few locations particularly up towards the far
north of the growing area have seen more than 200mm and some approaching 500mm for the month.
In contrast at Ingham there was 115mm for the month of April which is below average,
and for most areas south of Tully, we did see below average rainfall for April.
On the next slide we're seeing the chance of exceeding median in rainfall in May on
the left hand side, and June to August on the right. In May, there's a low to about equal
chance of exceeding median rainfall we see these brown shades towards Ingham, and then we do see
increasing to white shades or about equal chance as we head towards Innisfail. In June to August
again we're looking at a low to about equal chance of exceeding median rainfall for the
north growing area, we do see fewer brown shades particularly as we head down south towards Ingham.
Next looking at the model accuracy and this is based on past performance at that time of
year. And what we're seeing here roughly is the percentage of time the model did get it right.
In May, the median rainfall forecasts typically get it right 55 to 65% of the
time for the north growing area, but a slight uptick the further north you go.
Similarly in June to August the models typically get it correct 55 to 65% of
the time, but we do see a reduction as we head further inland in that accuracy.
Next the rainfall outlooks for the next two weeks, in particular the chance of exceeding 25mm each
week for the next two weeks. It is looking to be a dry fortnight ahead with southeasterly
winds dominating. So for properties not facing the southeast we are expecting to see a lower
chance of exceeding 25mm each week compared to those which directly face the southeast winds.
Next the rainfall outlook for the rest of May on the left hand side we see the 50% forecast
chance versus the historical median, and overall the 50% forecast chance is
looking average to slightly drier than the historical median as you can see there's
more differences in the colours the further south you go particularly south of Ingham.
On the next slide looking at the high or 75% chance of receiving at least versus the low or
25% chance of receiving at least and a good way to think about this is it is similar to what you
see on the BOM rainfall app with those rainfall ranges showing there's two rainfall amounts. So
for example for Ingham for the month of May we are expecting to see between that 25 to up to 50mm
range is that middle fifty percent chance scenario on the next slide we look at June and again on the
left hand side the 50% forecast chance versus the historical median on the right hand side.
And it is looking to be slightly drier than the historical median particularly again the
further south you do go up towards Innisfail it is looking pretty similar for both maps.
On the next slide again looking at the high versus the low chance for the north growing area
and fast forwarding again look at the next three month period from June to August
comparing the 50% chance on the left versus the historical median and it is looking to
be close to or slightly below the historical median for the north growing sugarcane areas
And next the high 75% chance versus the 25% chance again for that June to August period.
As we head into Spring at this stage it's probably too early to give a confident forecast,
but further updates will give information as we go. These maps that you see here show the
historical medians based on data from 1991 to 2020. and what we're expecting at this stage
that some international models are indicating rainfall close to median or possibly drier
than typical as the most likely scenario. So what you see here may be reached, or we might
see slightly less than the median but we will know more as we head towards the springtime.
Finally short-term weather watch points and we're looking at 24 hour rainfall to 10 p.m
on Thursday the 27th and 10 pm on Friday the 28th of April. On Thursday in that southeasterly trade
flow we are looking at light to moderate showers particularly for the southeast facing properties
but then by Friday we see things clear up pretty quickly and it is looking to be a dry last couple
days of April and first days of May. But as always check the latest forecasts and warnings
on the Bureau's website or on the BOM Weather app. That's it for this Outlook, be sure to
send your feedback to agriculture@bom.gov.au and we'll see you next time. Thanks for listening.