TODAY IS DAY TWO OF FEDERAL
RESERVE CHAIRMAN JAY POWELL’S
TESTIMONY ON CAPITOL HILL
ANNUAL HUMPHREY-HAWKINS
TESTIMONY TODAY IN FRONT OF
HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES
COMMITTEE YESTERDAY IN FRONT
OF SENATE BANKING COMMITTEE
FLAT-OUT MIDST INFLATION BEGAN
WELL BEFORE PUTIN EVASIVED
UKRAINE SAID IT WILL BE TOUGH
CHALLENGE TO RAISE RATES OF
WITHOUT TAKING U.S. ECONOMY IN
RECESSION HERE WHAT IS HE SAID
ABOUT SOFT LANDING.
>> IT IS GOING TO BE VERY
CHALLENGING HAS BEEN MADE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CHALLENGING
BY EVENTS OF THE LAST FEW
MONTHS.
MARIA: JOINING ME RIGHT NOW
FORMER COUNSEL ECONOMIC
ADVISERS CHAIRMAN HOOVER
INSTITUTION DISTINGUISHED
VISITING FELLOW KEVIN HASSETT
GREAT TO SEE YOU WITH A WAS
YOUR TAKE CONVEY FROM DAY ONE
OF POWELL?
>> I THINK JAY ABSOLUTELY
DOING GOOD JOB KIND OF LINING
NBA FINALS SEEMED CELTICS HAD
TERRIBLE FIRST QUARTER A GREAT
SECOND QUARTER JAY HAD A GOOD
SECOND QUARTER AFTER TERRIBLE
FIRST QUARTER SPOKE FRANKLY
ABOUT WHAT NATION PROBLEMS ARE
CONCEDED A RECESSION IS DIDN’T
SAY INEVITABLE BUT THE QUITE
LIKELY ALMOST FOR SURE IN THAT
NOW YOU AND SHOULD I TALK
ABOUT CLAIMS BECAUSE
CONSISTENT WITH THE VIEW THAT
WE ARE HEADED TOWARDS
RECESSION HE BASICALLY MADE
SENSE SPOKE RATIONALLY ABOUT
ECONOMY MOST POLICYMAKERS HAVE
BEEN IN DENIAL ABOUT IT FOR
ALMOST A YEAR, SO I THINK A
POSITIVE SIGN, THAT FINALLY
GOING TO TAKE ACTION TO MOVE
THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
MARIA: MARKETS KNEW IT RIGHT
THE NASDAQ IS DOWN 30%
YEAR-TO-DATE MARKETS HAVE BEEN
EXPECTING A RECESSION WE GOT
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS OUT
THIS MORNING 229,000 ACTUAL
JOBLESS CLAIMS VERSUS ESTIMATE
227,000 WHAT DO CLAIMS TELL
YOU THIS MORNING KEVIN.
>> RIGHT WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WHEN WE GET INTO
RECESSION OR A SINCE IN
RECESSION I HAVE A STRONG VIEW
ON THIS WHAT HAPPENS CLAIMS
CLIMB TO 250,000 A MONTH FROM
AROUND 200,000 A MONTH WHEN
THEY BLIND INTO 220s PRESIDENT
ALLIES ARE SAYING TRANSITORY,
I THINK YOU MIGHT HAVE HEARD
THAT WORD BEFORE, BUT NOW WE
ARE BASICALLY LOCKING IN MAYBE
ABOUT A TWO THIRDS OF THE WAY
TOWARDS WITH RECESSIONARY
NUMBER I THINK MARKS TO
RECESSION CLAIMS DATA PROBABLY
SURE TO CONTINUE I ALSO MAKE A COMMENT ON PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
COMMENT ON PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ABOUT OIL, PUTIN’S PRICE HIKE,
IT IS SUCHISH RATIONAL PUTIN
OIL SALES HAVE NOT GONE DOWN
SELLING TO CHINA, INDIA TOTAL
REVENUE FROM OIL GONE UP
THEY’VE THING ALL RUSSIAN OIL
TO ZERO PRICE HIGHER THAT IS A
LIE THAT IS A LIE GLOBAL
SUPPLY CAN’T KEEP UP WITH
GLOBAL DEMAND IN U.S. WORSE
THAN EVERYWHERE ELSE BECAUSE
THEY SHUT DOWN PIPELINES NOT
THAT PUTIN IS OFF-LINE HE FELL
INTO CHINA SELLING TO CHINA,
INDIA INSTEAD GLOBAL SUPPLY
ISN’T REALLY MUCH AFFECTED.
>> GLOBAL SUPPLY NOT MUCH
AFFECTED WHAT IS GOING TO COME
OUT OF MEETING WITH OIL CEOS
PRESIDENT HAS BEEN SLAMMING
OIL COMPANIES OFFER HOW MUCH MONEY THEY MAKE YET MISSING
MONEY THEY MAKE YET MISSING
THE MEETING IT WILL BE
JENNIFER GRANHOLM UNBELIEVABLE
A MEETING AT THE WHITE HOUSE
WITH COMPANIES THAT MAKE
MOST IMPORTANT PRODUCT IN
AMERICA HAVE PRESIDENT NOT
MEET WITH THEM, CLEARLY, WHAT
THEY DECIDED TO DO IS DEMONIZE
THESE GUYS YOU HAVE SEEN
RHETORIC OUT OF WHITE HOUSE,
IF YOU HAVE COMPANIES
PROVIDING PRODUCTS SMEERZ LIKE
WHITE HOUSE SHOULD NOT BE
THREATENING THEM WITH SORT OF,
THAT IS WHAT BIDEN IS DOING
THE FACT NOT GOING TO THE
MEETING MEANS PROBABLY GOING
TO GIVE A SPEECH AFTER THE
MEETING TALKING ABOUT HOW THEY
ALL SHOULD BURN IN HELLOR
SOMETHING TLAIRD VERBAL WAR
AGAINST OIL COMPANIES SENDING
DEPUTIES TO TALK TO THEM A
TERRIBLY MACHIAVELLIAN MOVE,
BODES ILL FOR GETTING MORE
OIL, TO COME IF YOU HAVE A
PRESIDENT HATES YOU WHY WOULD
YOU INCREASE CAPACITY?
IN A COUNTRY RUN BY PRESIDENT
-- YOU JUST WOULDN’T.
>> ALSO A WHOLE OF GOVERNMENT
APPROACH VIRTUALLY EVERY
AGENCY HAS CLIMATE CHANGE
AGENDA PRIORITY LOOK AT
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE
COMMISSION NEW RULES FOR ALL
COMPANIES TO FOLLOW THIS HAS
CREATED NEW COSTS, FOR
COMPANIES, ON THE HEELS OF AN
ALREADY YOU KNOW, HEAVY
INFLATIONARY BURDEN OF -- WHAT
MORE THAN 10% ON PRODUCER
LEVEL IN TERMS OF INFLATION.
>> YEAH, BECAUSE IT -- IF
THEY’VE GOT GREEN AGENDA YOU
HAVE TO FOLLOW OTHERWISE THEY
ARE GOING TO HAVE THE CENTRAL
BANKS SAY THAT YOU ARE A RISKY
FIRM BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
YOU ARE DOING STUFF YOU HE
WEREN’T DOING WHEN PROFIT
MAXIMIZING IF YOU ADD EXTRA
COSTS TO PROFIT MAXIMIZING,
THE PROFITS GO DOWN COUNTRIES
LIKE THAT ARE GOING TO FLEE
THE COUNTRY DO BUSINESS
SOMEWHERE ELSE, WE ARE SEEING
THAT VERY CLEARLY IN DATA
AFTER TRUMP TAX CUTS
MULTI NATIONALS STARTED TO
MOVE BACK TO U.S. NOW IN JOE
BIDEN’S AMERICA FLEEING THE
COUNTRY THAT IS I ONE REASON
SUPPLY IN U.S. SUPPLY
PROBLEMS, WORSE THAN PRETTY
MUCH ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTRY.
>> HOW LONG IS THIS GOING TO
LAST WHAT IS YOUR TAKE IN
TERMS OF WHERE THIS IS GOING,
LARRY SUMMERS SAID WOULD TAKE
FIVE YEARS UNEMPLOYMENT AT 5%,
TO REESTABLISH PRICE
STABILITY, HOW LONG ARE YOU
EXPECTING THIS INFLATIONARY
PROBLEM TO LAST?
AND WHAT WILL A RECESSION MEAN
TO US PRACTICALLY SPEAKING A
LOT OF JOB CUTS?
WHAT?
>> RIGHT, I THINK RECESSION
WILL BE A LOT OF JOB CUTS,
VERY SLOW GROWTH, AND HIGH
INFLATION, I THINK THAT WE CAN
END INFLATION QUICKLY IF WE
HAVE A FISCAL RESPONSE TO DO
THAT AT "NATIONAL REVIEW" THIS
MORNING FOLKS COULD CLICK
THERE I WROTE ARTICLE HOW TO
FIX INFLATION DESIGNED A
FISCAL POLICY WILL MANAGE
INFLATION GO AWAY RELATIVELY
QUICKLY DEMOCRATS DON’T HAVE
NERVE OR WILL TO DO IT BUT IF
A CHANGE IN CONGRESS, THEN
MAYBE NEXT YEAR FISCAL POLICY
COULD HELP FED GET THERE
FASTER THAN WHAT LARRY SUMMERS
WROTE ABOUT.
>> I ASSUME THAT MEANS, NO
MORE SPENDING, FORGET "BUILD
BACK BETTER" AGENDA, FORGET
ABOUT FORGIVING STUDENT LOAN
DEDUCTIBILITY ADDITIONAL
STIMULUS THIS PRESIDENT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EVEN IN FACE
OF 40-YEAR HIGH INFLATION.
>> YEAH, OR TO REPEAT WHAT YOU
SAID JUST BEFORE I CAME ON YOU
GO TO THE CUT DEMAND INCREASE
SUPPLIES WELL-KNOWN
ESTABLISHED WAYS TO DO BOTH I
WRITE ABOUT IT IN "NATIONAL
REVIEW" SIMPLE TO GET AHEAD 6
CURVE ON INFLATION AWFUL THIS
ADMINISTRATION IS JUST IN
DENIAL, ABOUT THE PROBLEMS,
THEY WON’T SPEAK FRANKLY WHY