HE'S ALSO THE AUTHOR OF THE
RECRUITER, SPYING AND THE LOST
ART OF AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE.
DOUGLAS, IT'S A FASCINATING NEW
DIMENSION TO ALL OF THIS.
THE IDEA THAT THIS COULD POSE
AN INTELLIGENCE GATHERING
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE UNITED
STATES.
HOW WOULD U.S. INTELLIGENCE
AGENCIES GO ABOUT CAPITALIZING
ON THIS OPPORTUNITY?
>> WILL PUTIN'S EFFORT TO
RESTORE THE SOVIET UNION AND
ITS MODEL REALLY CREATES
CONDITIONS THAT ARE RIGHT FOR
ESPIONAGE.
OUR BEST AGENTS IN RUSSIA OVER
THE YEARS HAVE BEEN
IDEOLOGICALLY DRIVEN TO STRIKE
BACK AGAINST WHAT THEY SAW AS A
CORRUPT REGIME.
USUALLY THEY NEEDED A CRISIS,
SOMETHING THAT WOULD
PRECIPITATE THEIR WILLINGNESS
TO CROSS THAT LINE AND TAKE THE
RISK.
WOULD PUTIN HAS DONE IN UKRAINE
AND HIS REPRESSION AT HOME HAS
CERTAINLY PROVIDED THE CRISIS
THE UKRAINIANS HAVE PROVIDED
THE INSPIRATION, AND THE UNITED
STATES CAN OFFER THE TOOLS
WHERE PEOPLE LIKE THIS TO
STRIKE BACK.
MANY OF THESE BEST RUSSIAN
AGENTS WE'VE HAD WERE IN FACT
VOLUNTEERS.
PEOPLE WERE DRIVEN TO TAKE
ACTION EVEN THOUGH THEY WERE
PART OF THE ELITE.
I THINK RIGHT NOW WHERE WE SEE
IS GOING TO BE A SITUATION
WHERE PEOPLE WHO HAVE OPPOSED
PUTIN MAY BE IN THEIR HEART,
MIGHT BE MORE WILLING TO TAKE
THE BIGGER RISK TO STEP UP AND
DO SOMETHING, BECAUSE THEY ARE
LOYAL TO RUSSIA, BUT NOT TO THE
GOVERNMENT.
>> THAT'S SUCH AN INTERESTING
DIMENSION OF SPY CRAFT.
I THINK A LOT OF US THINK OF
SPIES THIS KIND OF CALCULATING,
COLD BLOODED MERCENARIES OF A
SORT.
BUT WHAT YOU ARE SAYING IS THAT
THIS COULD BE --
SOME OF THE BEST SPIES HAVE AN
EMOTIONAL INVESTMENT IN
OVERTURNING A PARTICULAR
REGIME.
IS THAT RIGHT?
>> THEY'VE USUALLY BEEN
AFFECTED BY SOMETHING
PERSONALLY.
THERE IS A CONFLUENCE OF EVENTS
THAT USUALLY AFFECTS THEM OR
THEIR FAMILY.
AND THEY MIGHT HAVE ALWAYS
CONSIDERED THAT THINGS WERE NOT
AS THEY WANTED THEM TO BE, BUT
SOMETHING NEEDS TO KIND OF PUSH
THEM OVER THE EDGE.
I THINK PUTIN HAS GIVEN THEM
THAT CRISIS.
I BELIEVE THAT RUSSIANS BELIEVE
IN THEIR COUNTRY AND THEIR
HISTORY.
THEY'LL TAKE ACTION AT SOME
POINT.
YOU DON'T NEED MANY OF THEM,
BECAUSE OF WHAT PUTIN HAS DONE
TO THEM AND THEIR FAMILIES AND
THEIR FUTURES.
>> DOUGLAS, WE'VE TALKED SO
MUCH IN THIS CONFLICT ABOUT THE
SEEMINGLY STUNNING
MISCALCULATION, IF YOU WILL, ON
THE PART OF RUSSIA'S MILITARY,
RIGHT?
IT JUST ARE NOT EQUIPPED TO
FIGHT THIS GROUND WAR IN
UKRAINE.
THEY ARE RUNNING SHORT ON
SUPPLIES, ETC, ETC.
THEIR STRATEGY IS WRONG, BUT I
THINK THE UNDER DISCUSSED PART
OF THIS IS THE FAILURE OF PUTIN
'S INTELLIGENCE SERVICES, RIGHT?
HE SEEMS SORELY OUTMANNED WHEN
IT COMES TO RUSSIAN
INTELLIGENCE VERSUS AMERICAN
INTELLIGENCE.
AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE ON ALL OF
THIS, RUSSIAN TROOP MOVEMENTS
AND RUSSIA'S INTENTION TO
INVADE UKRAINE --
BIDEN HAS BEEN SPOT ON.
THE CIA HAS BEEN SPOT ON.
DO YOU THINK THE BIGGER STORY
HERE IS HOW MUCH PUTIN HAS BEEN
FAILED BY HIS OWN RUSSIAN
INTELLIGENCE?
WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU ABOUT
THE STRENGTH OF, YOU KNOW,
RUSHES IN TULSA SERVICES?
>> WELL I THINK YOU REPORT YOU
SO.
I DON'T BELIEVE THE RUSSIAN
INTEL SERVICES HAD THE SAME
SENSE TO SPEAKING TO POWER.
PUTIN HAS CREATED THIS CULT OF
PERSONALITY AROUND HIM WHERE
THOSE WHO HAVE BAD NEWS TO
PROVIDE ARE LESS LIKELY TO
SO.
I AGREE THAT HIS CALCULUS WAS
BASED MOST LIKELY ON
INTELLIGENCE, BUT WHO'S GOING
TO TELL HIM THAT HE'S NOT
WEARING ANY CLOTHES?
YOU MENTIONED THE HOUSE ARREST
OF BECERRA, WHO'S IN CHARGE OF
THE SERVICE.
THAT'S THE FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE
GROUP OF THE FSB.
THE FSB HAS REALLY BEEN HIS
SOURCE OF STRENGTH AND POWER.
IN FACT, HE GAVE THEM
RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE FORMER
SOVIET STATES LIKE UKRAINE AND
BELARUS.
AND YET, HE'S THE FIRST ONE WE
READ ABOUT WHO AT A MINIMUM HAS
BEEN SACKED AND PERHAPS UNDER
ARREST.
WE ALSO SEE HIM --
THE DEPUTY CHIEF OF THE
NATIONAL GUARD.
THAT NATIONAL GUARD IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR PROTECTING THE
REGIME.
THERE ARE THE ONES WHO ARE
GOING TO CITIES.
THEY PUT DOWN THE RIOTS.
THEY PUT ON THE PROTESTS AND
THEY WERE DISPATCHED INTO
UKRAINE FOR AN OCCUPATION, BUT
WHAT THEY SAW WAS AN ACTUAL
FIGHT, A RESISTANCE.
THEY WERE DRIVING AROUND IN AN
ARMORED VEHICLES AND THEY WERE
SLAPPED.
WE QUICKLY SAW THE DEPUTY
REMOVED, BUT NOT THE CHEAP --
CHIEF, WHICH I THINK IS
INTRIGUING.
>> THERE'S A LOT TO BE GLEANED
AND THOSE CHOICES THAT PUTIN IS
MAKING.
ONE LAST QUESTION FOR YOU,
BECAUSE WE MENTIONED THE
OLIGARCH IN LONDON.
DO YOU THINK THESE GUYS WILL
HAVE SOME CORRESPONDENCE WITH
PUTIN, THEY CHECK IN WITH HIM
QUARTERLY, IF YOU WILL, THEY'RE
NOT IN RUSSIA, THEY ARE NOW
EXILED SOMEWHERE ELSE IN THE
WORLD AND THEY'VE LOST A LOT OF
THEIR FORTUNES OR HOW THEIR
FORTUNES FROZEN.
DO YOU THINK THEY COULD BE
CANDIDATES TO BE RECRUITED FOR
GATHERING INTELLIGENCE ON
BEHALF OF THE UNITED STATES?
>> I THINK THEY WOULD HAVE
HISTORICAL INFORMATION BUT NOT
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE.
I WOULD BE MORE INTERESTED IN
THE OLIGARCHS THAT WERE LEFT
BEHIND HAVE LOSS PERHAPS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, WHO MIGHT
BE MORE WILLING TO TALK, BUT
MORE THAN LIKELY WHAT WE NEED
OUR OFFICIALS WHO ARE IN THE
INNER CIRCLE, AS BUREAUCRATS,
AS OFFICIALS, DIPLOMATS,
SECURITY OFFICIALS, MILITARY
OFFICERS WHO FEEL PUTIN HAS
DONE THEIR COUNTRY WRONG.
THOSE ARE THE ONES MOST LIKELY
TO BE AVAILABLE TO US TO
VOLUNTEER, OR TO BE RECEPTIVE
TO OUR APPROACHES.
THE OLIGARCHS COME IN DIFFERENT