(dramatic music)
- [Narrator] This tiny strip of land in Eastern Europe
is being called NATO's danger spot.
It's known as the Suwalki Gap.
It forms a border between NATO members,
Poland and Lithuania,
and lies in between two Russian military strongholds.
Military strategists say,
"This sparsely populated area
with hills, forests, and small villages
will be a prime target
if Russia decides to attack NATO territory."
Poland and Lithuania are worried about
this scenario becoming reality
as fighters from the Wagner Mercenary Group
arrive on their doorstep in Belarus.
So here's what's at stake
if the Suwalki Gap comes under attack.
The Suwalki Gap is around 60 miles long
and separates Poland to the west
and Lithuania to the east,
to its northwest, lies Kaliningrad
a chunk of Russian territory
with a number of military bases.
It's also home to Russia's Baltic Naval Fleet
and its only ports on the Baltic Sea
that doesn't freeze up in the winter,
but it's not linked to the Russian mainland.
The most direct route from Kaliningrad to Russia
will be through the Suwalki Gap
via Russia's neighbor and ally Belarus,
but the Russian President's Alexander Lukashenko
allowed Moscow to use his country as a base
to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Military analysts say,
Russia could attack from two ends of the Suwalki Gap
with soldiers from Kaliningrad
and forces advancing through Belarus,
which would leave NATO members,
Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia isolated.
Moscow would also gain more access to the Baltic Sea,
a crucial gateway for commercial shipping.
NATO has fewer options to defend its Baltic members by land,
they'll have to send in reinforcements
through Poland to Lithuania by crossing the Suwalki Gap
only two highways and a train line
connect Poland and the Baltic States.
That means this narrow strip of land
could become congested with troops and military hardware.
The stakes were raised even higher in recent months.
First, fighters from the Wagner Mercenary Group
started relocating to Belarus
after aborting a mutiny in Russia in June.
Then, according to Belarusian television,
"Wagner troops began training Belarusian soldiers,
just three miles from the Polish border."
Poland's Prime Minister says,
"The situation is becoming dangerous."
(speaking in foreign language)
- [Narrator] Warsaw responded by sending
up to 10,000 extra troops
to guard its border with Belarus.
Poland and Lithuania have also closed
some of their border crossings with their eastern neighbor.
NATO has tried to strengthen its defenses in the region.
- We're set and ready.
- [Narrator] Multinational battle groups
with around 1,000 troops have been set up
in each of the Baltic States.
(artillery blasting)
Large-scale drills have taken place
in the area close to the Suwalki Gap
as a way to show NATO's readiness.
(helicopter blades whirling)
The Baltic States and Poland
have also ramped up defense spending.
They have all vowed
to spend 3% of their GDP per year on defense,
more than NATO's 2% target.
The leaders of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia
want NATO forces to be stationed in the region permanently.
In the meantime,
NATO's defense capabilities in the area strengthened
with two new members, Finland and Sweden.
This opens up a gateway to reach the Baltics by sea and air
boosting any potential defense on land.
Finland and Sweden's militaries
also add hundreds of warplanes, tanks,
and tens of thousands of soldiers to the alliance.
(gunfire blasting)
Analysts say, "This makes a Russian invasion
even more costly."
Finland and Sweden's integration,
means Kaliningrad is effectively encircled by NATO.
Any attack by Russia could leave the Exclave vulnerable
to isolation and blockade by the alliance.
Analysts believe Russia
is unlikely to launch an armed attack on the Suwalki Gap
while he has his hands full with Ukraine.
(crowd cheering)
Polish opposition leader, Donald Tusk,
who's campaigning to become the next prime minister,
accused the governments,
"Of using the Wagner threats
to stoke fear ahead of October's election."
But Poland's governments denies this.
Still, NATO's Eastern members say,
"Wagner's presence on their doorstep
remains a security risk.
That's why they want to make sure the Suwalki Gap
is well defended
to deter any potential aggression from Russia."
(dramatic music)