- Now we are just moments away
from one of the biggest races on the triathlon calendar,
the European Ironman Championships here in Frankfurt.
And to talk about the race we're rather lucky
to have an absolute statician of triathlon racing with us.
So, Thorsten Radde come to join us.
- Hey again.
- Thanks for coming along and chatting to us.
Now, to get into the nuts and bolts of this race
we're going to look at some of the pro athletes
who are going to be racing here
'cause you always get a very strong field
because there's a chance of Kona slots,
there's also a really large prize purse on offer too.
So we've got no idea
who's going to be winning the male and female races
but that's what we're going to chat about.
So before we get into that we're going to talk about
Thorsten has his own specific Tri Rating system
to give us an idea of who he thinks might win the race.
So can you talk a little bit about that please?
- Well, first of all it's a big collection
of just race results from races,
Ironman, Challenge, 70.3, across the globe.
and that's a big database that I have
so I can analyze who had the best performances,
try to figure out which are fast courses,
which are slow courses,
and then build predictions of previous results.
I can build predictions that at least show
part of the picture on what's happening on race day.
And I should add that for me, this just helps me build
a kind of mental picture of how the race will develop,
who we're going to see at the front
and who will be further behind
but we still need to keep track of.
And then I can compare that mental picture
that I have to what's actually happening on race day.
It's always exciting to watch any race
and especially with a field that we have here in Frankfurt
with the number of athletes,
with the number of Kona slots,
with the money on the line, there's just,
it's going to be a fantastic race on Sunday.
(relaxed electronic music)
Well, I mean we still have a bit of a discussion
who's actually going to show up on race day.
So there's always a bit of movement in the final days
before the race, who's actually going to show up?
A couple of the ladies that were in Ireland
and didn't have a good race were rumored
to maybe show up in Frankfurt,
- Yeah it was Linsey Corbin. - but apparently
they wouldn't, yeah Linsey Corbin and Anja Ippach.
Both of them, from what I heard, not racing on Sunday.
So if we look at the field that's left then,
there's one clear favorite, but she also has a bit
of a question mark next to her.
That's Sarah True from the US.
Who was 2nd here last year, who had a great race in Kona.
On paper she should be the favorite for the race,
super strong swimmer, super strong runner.
She's also shown in Kona that she can bike much better
than what she did in Frankfurt here last year.
But yeah she did Ironman Cannes eight weeks ago
or something and, then had issues on the run
and couldn't finish the race so.
That's the question mark for her.
How will she have recovered from Cannes
and are there ongoing issues that haunt her on Sunday again?
But on paper she should be the one that we're looking to.
But from a race dynamic perspective,
she should be first in T1.
Then she's going to lose some time and there's other ladies
that are likely to pull through on the bike.
And then if Sarah has her typical run
she should retake the lead.
But there's going to be a lot of back-and-forth.
- And when we say her typical run,
'cause she does have the course record here doesn't she?
She set that last year. - 2.54 last year
and she ran sub three in Kona too so,
we'll see how that turns out.
- So we would put our money on Sarah
being able to run her way into,
if not the podium, perhaps the win, right?
- Yeah, and, the point that I have is the the second loop
on the run, it's a four loop run course,
so between 10k and 20k, that's when the big shifts
are likely to occur in the female race.
When Sarah catches up to the people
that biked stronger than her.
And it'll also give us a good indication
of whether she's going to run as well again
as she did the last couple of times.
- Okay, so it's interesting to know
so you're saying that 10 to 20k of the run
is the time to really focus on the women's race?
- Yeah that's when it looked like to me
as if we have three, four, five athletes
potentially within minutes of each other.
One falling back, one moving forward,
so that could be an interesting point.
- Let's say that's our potential winner locked in,
let's look at second and third,
who would you look to as the next?
- Well I mean that the dynamics of the race
would indicate that some of the stronger bikers
are going to be a big factor here.
Obviously Kim Morrison who had a great race in Texas
was even putting time into Tanja Erath
on the bike in Texas.
She's my likely T2 leader.
Then you also have the hometown favorite Daniela,
well, used to be Sammler, now it's Bleymehl.
A nice name for the English speaking people
- Yeah, it's a little tricky. - to get across right?
- Thanks for the pronunciation.
- So, I have Dani, based on the pure numbers,
maybe just a minute behind Kim on the swim
and maybe a minute behind on the bike.
But those differences are so small
that race dynamics are certainly going to play a factor.
If Dani is just slightly behind Kim on the bike
I would expect her to put in a huge effort
to ride up to her and then maybe team up with her
to work together at the front of the race.
- [Fraser] To pull away from the rest of the athletes?
- And build time into the others.
- So, on the women's side
let's nail your colors to the mast.
Who are your top three predictions?
- Well,
- On your predictions.
- On my predictions I've got Sarah in one,
I've got Dani now would be in two.
And I've got Jen, I think, at three.
But it's going to be real close
and you mentioned Kona slots before,
Daniela is out of that 'cause she won Ironman Italy
last year so she's already safe for Kona.
And then if we look at the press conference,
I mean I was seeing the other three ladies
that were out there, Jen, Kim, and Sarah True.
Three ladies that, - All want a Kona slot.
- All should belong in Kona I think.
But there's only two Kona slots going to be available
so,
that'll be a tight race. - Yeah, it'll be
an interesting battle. - Plus the rookies
so you never know how that turns out.
- Right so we've covered all of the women for now
let's move on to that men's race
which is going to be a real cracker isn't it?
- Yeah. - Well, hopefully.
- There's a lot of headlines in the German newspapers
I don't know how much you've been able to see.
- No I haven't seen any but I imagine, yeah, big.
- They're really building that race up,
the showdown in Frankfurt and everything like that.
And it's likely going to be
the biggest race outside of Kona.
- Because those three athletes,
Jan Frodeno, Sebastian Kienle, and Patrick Lange
have never all raced here together in Germany is that right?
- They've never raced together in Germany, I think.
I think at the three races other than, maybe a couple 70.3s
that they did together.
They only did race together in Kona.
But there was always something where,
- Something went wrong. - something went wrong
for one of them yeah.
- So it's a big deal for the home crowd
to be able to see it?
- Yes.
Yeah and it's big excitement, I mean,
Patrick originally lives in this area,
grew up here, just maybe 20 kilometers from here.
- [Fraser] So he's almost a hometown favorite?
- He's the hometown guy yeah, it's his home race.
He's moved to Austria after his engagement now
but is still being the home favorite
and he never was able to have a good race here in Frankfurt.
Last year he was 3rd when Frodo put a lot of time
into him on the run, the year before
he had some some injury struggles
and was 5th or 6th I think.
So he really wants to show that he's a factor in Frankfurt
and that he can run well outside of Kona too.
- Yeah because obviously
that's where he's always ran the fastest.
So, how do you see the race dynamic
working in the men's race?
- Going to be really interesting.
I think the the key factor of how the race
is going to develop for Frodo
is going to be how the swim turns out.
- In this lovely lake. - In this lovely lake, I mean,
last year he said he saw Patrick behind him
just a couple seconds in when they had the Australian exit
that's going to be down here.
After about half of the the swim course.
- And did that make him really push harder?
- Then he decided not to push too hard
and just see what what's going to happen
the rest of the day.
But if he manages to build up a lead in the swim
which he indicated he'll go hard on the swim this year.
If he manages to build a lead,
I don't see him waiting for Patrick
and I don't see Patrick catching up to him on the bike.
And we might have a race like the first year
that Frodo won here when he soon went off the front,
had the fastest bike, swim, and run,
all across the board and just was off the charts
for the whole day.
So that might be one thing that could happen.
If Patrick is able to swim with him,
then they'll probably stick together
for at least a good part of the bike.
And then Seb is going to be the big factor.
As usual, he's going to lose a couple of minutes,
we'll see how many.
- And hopefully make that up on the bike.
- Two would be good, four or five
would be probably the expected gap.
And then as usual he should make up time on the bike.
And then it'll be interesting to see what happens
when he passes Patrick and when he passes,
or when and if he passes Frodo.
Who is trying to stick with him
or who wants to maybe team up with him
to put time into the others.
- [Fraser] But they're not the only three people
in this race, it's a big field so let's talk about
some other key figures that are in the bike race,
the race, sorry, but particularly on the bike perhaps.
- Well I mean, again, if you take these three
out of the equation for Kona slots
because they already have their slots
and just need to validate them with a finish here.
You've got four male Kona slots
and you've got, 10, 12. - So there's another race
within the race? - Yeah.
You've got at least 10 or 12 other people
that potentially could be in the running
for a Kona slot and that could make things interesting.
One factor that we should mention is Joe Skipper
who also already has a Kona slot.
So he can just hit it out of the park
and see what happens.
I would love to see him swim well
as he indicated he has in the last couple of months.
And then really go for it on the bike
and still be able to run well.
Because in his good races he always held,
looked to me as if he, either consciously
or by pacing strategy, held back a little bit
on the bike and then was able to pull through
with a good run.
- [Fraser] Well Joe Skipper always has
a fantastic marathon, in my opinion.
- Yeah unless he completely annihilated himself on the bike.
- And any other key athletes that maybe spring to mind?
- Well if you look at the the Kona slots,
you've got a couple of German dudes.
Franz Loeschke who was second in Barcelona
by just a couple seconds.
Missed a Kona slot there.
You've got Patrick Dirksmeier,
you've got a bunch of other German dudes.
You've got Emilio,
I'm probably going to butcher his name, Aguayo,
- Oh, Spanish athlete. - From Spain
who was second in Ironman Lanzarote.
And, I mean, Franz and he, those are athletes
that have just one or two Ironman finishes
so also hard to predict.
And also, you never really know
what you're going to get from them on race day.
So the more established athletes might pull through.
Matt Russell is looking for a Kona slot.
Also probably someone that we're not going to see
in the live coverage, 'cause he'll lose time on the swim,
he'll work his way through the field,
probably lose time to the front two
on the bike and then hopefully pull through
with a strong run.
There are six already pre-qualified athletes
and you have four more Kona slots.
Potentially Kona could go,
all the way to 10th, yeah. - All the way to the top 10.
That's really interesting, there's not many races
where that's happened if none? - Nah, I think that's,
well, the slots rolled quite far in Mar del Plata
I think to 6th or 8th there?
It could potentially roll even further here.
- The girls will be jealous won't they?
Only two slots for them.
And we touched on that slightly,
so the slots allocated are two for the men,
two for the women, there's two more floating slots.
But they're based on the number of athletes
who start the race right?
So the men's field at the moment
is looking much larger in numbers
than the women's field, therefore those two slots
will go proportionally to the men's field, right?
- Yeah, and the difference is so,
big with the fields that we have that,
even one or two canceling won't make much of a difference.
I mean, we'll go to the pro meeting and have a look
how many actually cancel.
But, yeah that would have to be like like 40 men
not showing up on race day.
And that's not going to happen.
- [Fraser] So we've got four slots for the men?
- So four slots for the men is 99% certain.
If I understand the math right
that Ironman is doing there.
- Well that has been a fascinating,
especially the discussion about the men's slots, right?
- Yeah we'll see how that turns out on Sunday.
- Yeah, I mean potentially top 10
could get somebody qualified for Kona
and a wide open race in the women's too.
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- Down here. - right there.