Translator: Maria Eugenia Varela Reviewer: Claire Ghyselen
Please join me for a collective awakening.
It's a vital awakening, as you are about to see.
For the past ten years, I’ve been doing multidisciplinary foresight work
on the vulnerabilities of modern societies.
In a nutshell,
I analyze the systemic issues faced by mankind,
and I develop proposals to deal with these issues
by phasing out false good ideas -
those that cannot work -
i.e. nearly all the so-called solutions we hear about.
Let me share my analysis.
You'll see why I have trouble finding sleep at night.
I will start by describing the main challenges faced by mankind.
Then, I will explain why the strategies available
to address climate change
as well as challenges regarding energy, resources or food security
are intrinsically unfit
because they miss the main problem.
Then I’ll make some suggestions
to hopefully inspire positive and meaningful change
both in terms of thinking and action.
We live in artificial settings that we’ve built for ourselves.
These are urban landscapes mostly, which hide nature from us.
They may also be socio-cultural and ideological settings
that numb our link to nature.
Backstage is a burning hell for all forms of life,
which struggle to survive us.
I would like to illustrate how our civilization is a mega-machine
that annihilates the living world.
We have the choice to either stop it
or end up destroying ourselves and a myriad of species altogether.
This self-destruction process could be imminent
considering the vulnerabilities of our societies.
Our communities are polarized
between those who understand
that our world has reached its physical limits
and that we need to redefine our behaviors,
and those who reject the very idea of limits,
without having studied the issue -
either they deny the world's limits,
or they admit their existence
but believe there are no limits to man's ability to solve problems.
Such unconditional faith is a form of denial.
Believing that solutions can be found,
thus maintaining the system instead of changing it,
means to try to sustain the unsustainable.
The question of our societies' limits and vulnerabilities is not ideological.
It is not a matter of personal opinion or intuition either.
The truth is,
systems scientists,
experts in infrastructure resilience,
specialists in biogeochemical cycles and ecologists
teach us that the world is a complex system governed by feedback loops,
threshold effects, domino effects, rebound effects,
and that due to its exponential dynamics, we have a timing issue:
strategies from 20 years ago are no longer relevant.
In fact, we're already too late for any kind of sustainable development.
And no strategy will lead to viable and enviable prospects
until we consider the problem for what it is:
a defect in our model of civilization.
Now let us visualize that
through a systemic analysis of the situation.
The natural world consists of six spheres.
The first one is the lithosphere, the rigid shell of the Earth,
from which we get hydrocarbons
that are vital to our industrial civilization,
as well as metals including rare earths, building sand,
or vital nutrients such as phosphorus.
And all of these are reaching limits.
Sometimes it's a matter of stock, more often it's a matter of flow:
are we able to secure the supply - especially of oil -
our societies depend upon to function?
The second sphere is the hydrosphere,
all the water of the planet:
oceans, seas, lakes, rivers, groundwater.
It is in an advanced state of degradation:
pollution,
plastics and other wastes,
acidification, warming, sea level rise, salinization,
drought, dead zones -
all the warning lights are flashing red.
Third sphere is the cryosphere, the frozen water part of the Earth:
sea ice, ice sheets, glaciers, permafrost.
Breaking news:
it is melting!
Faster and faster.
The fourth sphere is the atmosphere.
Its chemical composition changes so fast that the water and carbon cycles,
which sustain life on Earth, are totally out of whack.
Weather patterns have become erratic,
not to mention the multiple forms of gas and particle pollution.
Fifth sphere is the biosphere, all life on Earth.
A dreadful tragedy is unfolding in the backstage of our pretty settings.
If you exclude mankind and farm animals,
60% of all vertebrates have vanished in 44 years.
Vertebrates!
i.e terrestrial and marine mammals,
amphibians, fish, reptiles and birds.
Can't we hear Nature's agonizing scream?
Let us be clear.
Living beings do not vanish into thin air:
we are exterminating them with our ways of life!
I am not pointing fingers; I am merely stating a fact.
The sixth and last sphere is the pedosphere, the soil.
75% of the planet’s land are in critical condition
due to intensive farming practices,
urbanization
or industrial activities, especially mining.
And lately, the United Nations warned us of a global food shortage threat.
This is the state of the natural world as we observe it.
You see why I sleep poorly.
Now, there’s a seventh sphere, the anthroposphere:
mankind, human activities and human output -
buildings, objects, products, waste.
The anthroposphere is mushrooming,
an exponential boom that results in the human ecological footprint -
the pressure we put on our planet -
exceeding what the planet can withstand.
The question is,
Can our societies last
when everywhere we look,
nature is collapsing or has reached its limits?
No, they cannot.
We face a great energy and material descent
that will be made worse by logistic breakdowns and shortages.
We must get ready,
learn to live in balance with nature.
We belong to it.
If we believe we're invulnerable and thus remain unprepared,
collapses will soon occur all around the world -
chaotic processes at the end of which
we will be forced to ensure our needs by ourselves.
To get a full picture of our vulnerabilities,
let me add four ingredients.
One:
all our activities require the continuous operation
of just-in-time supply chains that we do not control ourselves
and that depend on transportation systems, 96% of which run on oil.
If you think that food, energy or health security
are provided by the state or local authorities, think again.
In the event of a lasting supply break,
we’re on our own.
Two: we rely on infrastructures -
transport, water, gas, electricity and telecom networks
that need a constant supply of materials and energy
for proper operation and maintenance.
Three: we’ve technologized the world,
and in doing so, we’ve optimized it
but we've made it more complex and fragile.
From now on, we are vulnerable to supply-chain breaks,
power failures,
hackers, cyberterrorists, and so forth.
And four,
the icing on the "quake":
we are at the mercy of unstable stock markets.
Our whole world is submitted to a short-termistic financial system,
which is the polar opposite of the common good.
So,
what do we do now?
Do we demand action from decision makers?
It's a lost cause.
Even if they actually wanted to act,
their solutions are inadequate!
To illustrate this, let’s ponder on climate change -
the one issue that mobilizes the international community.
Each year there's a UN summit,
billions are invested, there’s a carbon market,
we're coming up with innovations - cleantech, greentech, smartech -
there are energy transitions all around the world, and ...
there's not the slightest reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
None!
None.
Why?
First of all, because we strive for economic growth,
thereby increasing our footprint.
On a global scale, there is no decoupling between GDP and greenhouse gas emissions.
But above all - this is the crux of my point -
even if we did manage to avoid cataclysmic climate disruption
by decarbonizing civilization,
we still wouldn’t prevent a widespread collapse.
Because our solutions are inadequate.
Because we treat climate change as a problem
even though it is not one;
it’s a symptom!
Let’s model the situation.
Upstream, we extract resources.
Next, we transform them into goods and services.
Downstream, we dump pollution and waste.
These are solid, liquid or gaseous,
and among those gases, we find the greenhouse gases.
Climate change is just one of many side effects
of the fact that this civilization is an irreversible, uncircularizable flow
that converts nature into waste.
Thus, using energy - even carbon free - to power our civilization
means that we maintain the flow that mutilates the living conditions on Earth.
To work, the energy transition must consist in reducing that flow,
and above all, it must be one element among a vast array of strategies
designed to deal with the root causes,
i.e. transform civilization itself.
I am aware that it is hard to conceive our visions of the future are obsolete.
It doesn't help me sleep.
But either we open a conversation to decide together what should be guarded,
what should change, what should be stopped
and what could be created,
and we may still be able to build a sustainable and decent future,
or we fail to prepare,
and these choices will be forced upon us under the pretense of security
in highly repressive circumstances.
The moment of choice is now - like it or not.
Not tomorrow, now.
We wake up or we break down.
So I ask again, What do we do now?
Well, we keep hope.
But not just any hope.
Not the naive hope
that they are going to solve the problem.
Not the hope to perpetuate this toxic, decaying civilization,
but the hope to invent new ways of living in the world.
We need to deconstruct false hopes
so as to design lucid ones!
But the system is locked, which precludes top-down solutions.
We need to act from the bottom up.
It’s up to us!
C'est la vie! It is our responsibility.
We are all responsible for the future
even if not guilty for the past.
Our choices are going to define us.
Shall we be the ones who stand up for this cause
that impacts all the other causes?
Or shall we be the ones who wash their hands of it?
Let us not give in to resignation,
despair or defeatism!
Tomorrow will be what we make of it.
And the good news is - I’m getting there at last -
that there are numerous constructive ways to take action.
Two major endeavors must be undertaken:
a revolution in our thinking and an awakening of our actions.
Endeavor number one:
to decolonize and renew our imagination.
This is sphere number eight, the sphere of ideas.
First off, let's marshal our creativity to craft inspiring counter-narratives
able to supersede the mighty sky-is-the-limit narrative,
which is a ludicrous scam
that can only generate oppression
and doom us to unhealthy cognitive dissonance.
We all need to grasp that there's no incompatibility,
no rivalry between social and ecological struggles
that both can and must strengthen each other.
It is time we founded new cultures based on other hierarchies of values.
I know this may sound abstract,
but in fact, nearly everything we need already exists:
agroecology, agroforestry, permaculture,
no-till farming, gardening on living soil, local supply chains, housing co-ops,
reappropriation of the commons by citizens -
air, water, land or seeds -
local currencies, local exchange trading systems, low-tech, etc.
There is so much we can do to live better and sustainably.
Inquire about it, get some training, transform yourself!
These learning experiences require some effort,
but they're deeply liberating.
And from now on, whatever we undertake let's ask ourselves,
Does it help reinvigorate nature and human bonds?
This question must become a reflex.
Ask yourself this question.
Besides renewing our imagination,
the second major endeavor is about what we do.
It's sphere number nine, the sphere of action.
There are two complementary kinds of actions:
resistance and resilience.
First of all, let’s tear down our deceptive settings
and organize resistance against the mega-machine.
Small steps and daily good deeds are all very well,
but we are way beyond that.
Stopping the destruction
and the staggering violence of our civilization
is an act of self-defense as much as an ethical question.
Mobilization on all fronts,
civil disobedience:
the future needs each and every one of us to take emblematic action.
Whether activism is your thing or not, it's time to wake up and fight!
This is a war.
All this must be in sharp contrast with your everyday experience,
yet I am not being dogmatic or excessive.
In fact, this is a moderate point of view among natural scientists.
It’s our world's backstage that’s extreme!
At this point, the proportional response to the issues at stake
is to mobilize with determination!
Together, let’s halt harmful activities and insane projects.
Let's stop the perverted or greedy elites,
big business, banks, law firms,
lobbies that serve private interests at the expense of the public good.
We must say "No more!" to these things.
If we don’t,
who will?
It’s up to us to reverse the balance of power,
to become architects of the machine and no longer mere cogs in it.
From now on, the role of states and decision-makers
should be to facilitate resilience initiatives.
What would be a good leader today?
It would be a visionary able to gather citizens
around an inspiring, coherent public-interest project for the future.
These first elements set up the dynamic for resistance.
Then, there is resilience,
showing that we can live differently yet well,
without relying on supply chains from the other side of the planet,
on capital-intensive industrial systems
or on highly sophisticated technical devices.
Living and working with nature without trying to dominate it,
with respect.
Sparking sustainable cohesion.
Becoming collectively less fragile in the face of limits.
Let us establish new societies in parallel with this insane system,
communities designed to take over tomorrow,
freed from the race for ever more,
able to limit themselves with unity and dignity.
Let’s build inspiring alternatives.
Here's a quick advice.
If you think you can become self-sufficient on your own
or build some isolated, self-sufficient community with stockpiles
and a martial culture maybe,
it won't hold up in the long run even if you’re wealthy;
instead, take inspiration from the "Transition Towns" movement.
It's not enough, but it’s a good starting point.
Besides, do not underestimate the risk of insecurity.
You need to catalyze constructive dynamics of cooperation, in networks.
Resilience is collective by definition.
Instead of scattered islets,
you need archipelagos connected to each other in solidarity
to make regions resilient,
i.e. able to cope with the energy and material descent
while guaranteeing decent living conditions for everyone.
Whoever you are,
contribute in your own way.
Do you have free time or money?
Give some of it to fund ecological restoration projects.
Do you own land?
Lend it for initiatives that prepare for a post-oil era.
Are you an elected official?
Open your territory to social-ecological transition projects.
People will get organized; you don't have to do anything.
Just make it easier for them.
Are you an executive?
Shift your company by designing a truly sustainable business model!
Employees and employers should design together
meaningful long-term projects!
Are you a teacher?
Prepare students for resilience rather than for a job market
that will have completely changed within a few years.
And so forth.
There is so much one can do.
It is time to unleash a swell of resilience initiatives.
And it's up to us.
A new civilization project must arise.
And it all starts from us!
Do not let it intimidate you.
Be bold because great, beautiful moments are coming up
if we overcome denial, hypocrisy
and our delusive settings.
If we work together with dignity and resolve,
we can still make the forces of life prevail against the forces of death.
Before I wrap up, a word of caution about technology -
given that we are among tech enthusiasts here.
Technology fascinates us, yes, but it's a tool,
which benefits us if it empowers us
and does not turn us into junkies
if it contributes to decomplexify the world
instead of adding complexity
and making us dependent and vulnerable.
Complexity leads to perplexity.
Perspicacity suggests simplicity.
On an oversaturated planet,
technology only makes sense in the service of a higher cause:
the inception of new ways of life that are protective
and no longer exploitative of nature.
Renewal of our imagination, resistance, resilience.
It’s all there.
It is the key.
After this talk, if you don't know how to get started,
here’s my advice - it applies to anyone.
As soon as possible, foster conversations around you,
in your community or neighborhood,
with your friends or coworkers:
face-to-face gatherings to discuss together
limits and vulnerabilities,
resources and your precious local cultural diversity.
You will realize that other people also worry and care,
and together you will find answers to the question you must ask from now on:
what can we do to revitalize our community and nature
and to tend towards local self-sufficiency?
Do all of this,
and you shall spark lucid hopes.
Incidentally,
I might sleep better
and so will everyone else, I guess.
Thank you.
(Applause)