when is the covid pandemic going to end
so many people have been comparing the
Spanish Flu to SARS cov2 for example the
Spanish Flu took place over two years
between 1918 to 1920 and consisted of
four waves so here we are almost two
years later and there have been four
waves so it'll end in 2022 right right
today we're going to break down how this
all might end with specific predictions
based on Expert opinions past virus
trajectories and up-to-date research and
models let's go first off a reminder
that this novel coronavirus carries its
genetic info as RNA not DNA and is
considered an intracellular parasite
which is a fancy way of saying it can
only reproduce within cells so SARS cov2
may think she's that girl but it's like
are you even alive call me when you have
your own cells or a metabolism hun
although maybe we shouldn't be making
fun of her because currently she's doing
a great job infecting us all even though
the flu is also an RNA virus it is
different than the current RNA
coronavirus that we are all talking
about so to understand what is going to
happen to us in the future it's also
worth looking at the coronaviruses or
colds that infect all of us each year a
new genius study went back to look at
blood samples over multiple decades for
the seasonal coronavirus 229e because
this virus is able to infect people
repeatedly throughout their lives but
what they realized through the blood
samples was that individuals in the 80s
had different immune markers than those
in the 90s and even more so from those
in the 2000s this makes researchers
think coronavirus 229e might also be
mutating throughout these decades that's
maybe what's causing reinfection it's
not just fading immune response so the
big question is when will SARS cov2
virus join the other four coronaviruses
that circulate throughout populations
and cause relatively mild colds how does
that happen now that is the big question
on the one hand it could become endemic
meaning infections stabilized without
these unexpected spikes that would
require a low reproduction number like
R1 meaning an infected person is likely
to infect only one other person not like
this Omicron variant which is making
graphs of covet cases look like a
comedic joke straight line up on the
other hand SAR cov2 could become
something more threatening like a bad
flu or something even worse it's a myth
to say that viruses only evolve to
become more mild which is a narrative
that keeps getting pushed it's possible
but the reality is far more complex the
RNA inside is a blueprint that needs to
get its genetic material into the
cytoplasm of your cells then the
ribosome starts reading the blueprint
three nucleic acids at a time and then
strings them together and creates the
protein but occasionally the wrong
nucleic acid will get added to the chain
this can sometimes lead to changes
making an offspring virus different from
its parent and these random changes can
sometimes be advantageous to the virus
early genome sequencing of the SARS cov2
virus showed that it was picking up
around two single letter mutations per
month there are two important ways to
think about how mutation affect the
virus that we are currently all fleeing
from one is its transmissibility like
mutations that make it replicate faster
or make a more contagious to others and
two is its ability to evade immune
response like mutations in the spike
proteins that make it sneak past our
immune system gamma and Beta had a slew
of mutations in the fame-fame spike
proteum we're all talking about that
made it bind more easily to ace2
receptors in your body and that made it
more easily absorbed into your cells
meaning boom it's more transmissible
it's more likely to gain these effective
mutations the longer it replicates in a
host so the longer you are sick the more
likely these mutations can happen this
is why these mutations are more likely
to happen in people who are not
vaccinated or in people who are
immunocompromised King Delta identified
in Spring 2021 was 60 percent more
transmissible than any other strain
before because of mutations that
researchers think caused it to replicate
faster in the Airways of infected
individuals outpacing the initial immune
response especially again in those
unvaccinated so boom you have increased
transmissibility and evading immune
response Delta is more transmissible
than the current fluids we deal with or
any of those four common colds that we
talked about earlier but it's less
transmissible than measles and polio
it's also nice to know that this
transmissibility of a virus can't just
increase forever we're dealing with the
laws of nature here and there are
certain parameters on our biology the
virus needs to toy with the ability to
replicate in thine Airways and lungs but
also with making sure we're not so sick
it wants us to be out there and
spreading it doesn't want us to be sick
at home in bed not able to move the
virus wants to infect my family and when
we say want here a gentle reminder that
the virus isn't sentient and doesn't
consciously want these things it's just
that the more optimal versions of the
virus will spread more effectively out
competing other variants that might be
too deadly or not transmissible enough
Omicron came out of left field like she
stomped on the scene this baby has 30
mutations in the spike protein and has
evolved to infect people who are immune
through vaccination or previous
infection to Delta but as gains in
transmissibility slow it needs to figure
out ways to continue to overcome immune
responses which is probably what's
happening right now experiments and lab
sequencing of variants circulating right
now have identified a bunch of mutations
in Spike proteins that weaken your
body's immune response which has been
boosted by vaccination or prior
infection but the important thing that
we do know is that vaccines continue to
protect against severe disease your T
cell mediated immunity created by the
MRNA vaccine is a huge step in speeding
up and overcoming this pandemic and
that's why getting the world vaccinated
is so important that doesn't mean it'll
just go away overnight but being
vaccinated continues to make you more
resilient to any mutations in SARS cov2
over time as it's proven to make you
less sick perhaps even more important is
that it allows you to not contribute to
the problem of it becoming even more
transmissible or evading immunity so
continued vaccination can build up a
wall of immunity that the virus can no
longer overcome essentially if the whole
world was suddenly vaccinated at once
the overall T cell mediated immunity
would be high enough to help us be more
resilient to any upcoming changes of the
virus and as a result it wouldn't be
able to spread as fast and likely become
endemic more easily as of now there are
six scenarios that experts think about
our future for covid one we do a better
job vaccinating the world the overall
T-cell immunity of humanity increases
making the virus more likely to be
endemic resulting in outbreaks and
epidemics of varying sizes like other
respiratory infections we already have
more like the current coronaviruses and
flu we all deal with two still
considered endemic we have small changes
in the spike proteins that open up parts
of society to reinfection the virus
continues to evolve but we combat waning
immune responses with annual vaccines
like the flu shot and the only people
who are highly susceptible are those who
are unvaccinated and children born
without immune three this one's good but
not likely we invent a vaccine like the
measles vaccine that offers lifetime
protection and the only people who are
susceptible are newborn kids four it
ends up like respiratory Sensational
virus meaning it's around like maybe
forever but in the far future most
people get infected in the first two
years of life it is mild for most kids
but it does cause high hospitalization
rates overall for infants as it spreads
or evolves adults have mild symptoms due
to their exposure they already had as a
kid five it ends up like influenza A the
Whittle bugger that drives Global flu
each year this BB has rapid Evolution
and spreads with new variants that are
able to escape the immunity elicited by
past strains this results in seasonal
epidemics largely spread by adults who
can still have severe illness like the
flu vaccine our annual coronavirus
vaccine will decrease transmissibility
and decrease severe disease but the
quick mutation means that these vaccines
aren't always properly designed for the
specific strains of the year and will
need to continually be updated 6. it
ends up like influenza B evolves more
slowly and is driven largely by
infection in children who have less
immunity than adults who are more immune
from prior infection and vaccines it's
important to remember that how quickly
SARS cov2 evolves in relation to immune
response will continually explain how
often we need to be updating these
vaccines right now this coronavirus is
evolving faster than other seasonal
coronaviruses or influenza but experts
do predict that it'll slow down to maybe
needing an updated vaccine every year
like the flu or potentially every two or
five years but it's equally possible
that it can mutate into something worse
we just can't know for sure a lot of
people are looking at the UK and the
US's strategy right now which is just to
sort of let the virus rip and
potentially infect almost everyone and
while this might be a high risk High
reward strategy it's also leaving really
fertile ground for SARS cov2 to take
surprising evolutionary leaps only time
will tell if that'll breed new strains
that can re-infect people at high rates
or more effectively evade vaccine
immunity so will it end this year hey I
guess it kind of depends on what the
word end means to you we may be hearing
about this for years to come even though
it's not infecting people as severely as
it is right now regardless the future is
in our hands in some ways it is
important that we vaccinate the whole
world not just the wealthy Nations
because as Homo sapiens sapiens
suffering from this disease it is
important that we all have the increased
T cell mediated immune responses to help
fight against this virus's ability to
change or mutate and therefore cause the
next wave in the coming future we hope
this video helped what's happening right
now seems complicated but it's not as
deep as lots of people are trying to
make it seem with conspiracy theories
and all these things it's just about
biology virology and evolution and how
all of these things are going to play
out with the amazing science that we
currently have thank you for watching
share this with any friends who might
need to hear it I know this research has
helped me sort of understand what's
going on and we'll see you next week for
a new science video peace