Hello everyone, this is Klaus.
Today's episode is very important.
It will be one of our channel's core videos.
Why?
What is the purpose of our channel?
To develop independent thinking skills in the Chinese people.
Today we're talking about a threshold for independent thinking skills.
This video is so very important.
I hope you like it.
Some words of wisdom can change our life.
They're unforgettable.
When I first entered university,
I met a senior student who was about to graduate.
When I helped him pack things,
he gave me a few things he didn't want.
For a freshman like me who just entered a new world,
of course, any food for thought would be precious.
I asked him,
"Regarding university and life in general, do you have any advice for me?"
He became silent and lit a cigarette.
Gazing at the sunset in the distance,
he heaved a sigh, and let out a breath of smoke which made the dusk hazier.
Slowly, he only said something I would never forget,
"Don't think others are dumber than you."
At that time, ten thousand alpacas (euphemism for "f*ck" in Chinese) ran rampant in my mind.
I was thinking, "You poser. What the heck are you saying? Never mind."
Years later, I didn't like a colleague at work.
At a banquet,
I cleverly mentioned his professional deficiencies to our manager.
After a while, he left the company.
I was laughing inside.
Later, I realized that he got a better position elsewhere.
Then one day, I became a manager,
and I realized how stupid I had been.
The boss is well aware of the smart tricks you pull in the workplace.
Since then, I've been through many years of struggling in society.
I slowly realized the real essence of that sentence, "Don't think others are dumber than you."
Many Chinese idioms and proverbs tell the same meaning, such as "Too clever by half" and "Still waters run deep".
In the West, such an idea can be proven academically through experiments.
There was a man named McArthur Wheeler,
who had the same name as the famous General MacArthur during World War II.
He somehow had the idea that lemon juice could make him invisible.
He wiped his face with lemon juice and robbed two banks.
He even smiled at the camera.
When the police caught him at his house, he was shocked,
and mumbled, "How did they know it was me?"
This case triggered a cognitive experiment by psychology professors Dunning and Kruger.
They gave a test to participants.
After the test, the participants estimated their results.
It was found that people who achieved a below average score generally overestimated their performance.
Later, a series of experiments were conducted,
testing their ability in chess, sports, grammar, driving, and even sense of humor,
which yielded the same result.
In the end, the researchers proposed the famous Dunning-Kruger effect, which is a cognitive bias.
It states that people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability,
and that they are unaware of their low abilities because of their low abilities.
In other words, high achievers are more likely to objectively evaluate themselves.
People with low ability have not yet reached that high level yet.
In real life,
we can often spot the Dunning Kruger effect in two groups of people.
1. Those flaunting their seniority.
For example,
there will always be a layman nitpicking on the work of others.
This layman is usually the boss or an older person.
They take advantage of their seniority or old age.
2. Those who are like half-full bottles.
Studies have shown that novices are most likely to be overconfident,
which creates the "beginner's bubble".
I think most people can understand this.
As the saying goes, "Easier said than done."
A study on diagnostic error rate of doctors shows that
novice doctors were humble in the beginning,
as they had a correct understanding of their diagnostic accuracy.
But after diagnosing some patients,
these new doctors, having had some diagnostic experience,
tended to overestimate their diagnostic accuracy.
They believed their diagnostic accuracy was 73%,
but in fact their accuracy rate did not even reach 60%.
In fact, the ancient Chinese discovered this psychological phenomenon very early.
Everyone has heard the story of "the frog in the well"
from "Zhuangzi" over two thousand years ago.
We all learned this allegory when we were kids,
but how many of us think we might be the frog?
The frog in the well can only see a small piece of the sky, so it doesn't believe the sky is actually much bigger.
We have mentioned in a previous video on the RYB incident
why the Chinese don't believe those dark stories happening in China.
The reason is that they live and get educated in an environment where all information is controlled.
Their brain will only selectively believe information consistent with the mainstream public opinion,
automatically blocking voices of dissent.
Of course, that is the direct cause. But the key reason is the Dunning Kruger effect.
This effect is particularly obvious in China.
The Great Firewall acts as a well.
Many Chinese people think they know a lot of information
and have a good understanding of everything.
As a result, they won’t believe what you tell them.
During the Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill Movement last year,
the police went to the Chinese University of Hong Kong to arrest students.
Many mainlanders said that those students had been brainwashed.
I was too lazy to scold them, so I unfriended every one of them.
The Chinese University of Hong Kong ranked TOP 50 in the world.
Are their students so easily brainwashed?
Before you say they were brainwashed, see if you could pass that university's entrance exam.
Hong Kong has more TOP 50 universities in the world than China.
These trolls are less educated. I doubt they even went to university.
Where did they get the courage to say with a straight face that others are brainwashed?
Let’s forget about "brainwashing", and analyze the incident objectively and rationally.
Hong Kong is a region with developed education and a high degree of freedom.
China is a place with poor education and no information transparency.
Who are more likely to be brainwashed, the Hong Kong students or the Chinese Little Pinks?
But due to the Dunning Kruger effect,
the Little Pinks overestimate themselves.
They lack rationality and objectivity, so they don’t really know their place.
Why did I say at the beginning that this episode was very important
and that the Dunning Kruger effect is a threshold for independent thinking?
"The cognitive bias of illusory superiority comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability."
Thus, to see things clearly and better know ourselves, we have to cross this watershed.
Here is a graphical representation of the Dunning Kruger effect.
As you can see, there is a "mountain of stupidity and ignorance" to climb over.
Follow-up experiments by Professors Dunning and Kruger also revealed that
incompetent people can improve their abilities through a lot of training
and eventually recognize and acknowledge their prior lack of competence.
This means we can change the people behind the Great Firewall, including Wumao and Little Pinks.
So, I hope that our channel can play a role in the training of people's independent thinking skills.
I thank you for your continued support. Thank you for helping us promote our channel.
Looking back on that moment years ago,
I don’t know what stories that senior student had to tell.
"Don't think others are dumber than you." These words are so simple.
They are still ringing in my ears as I take my long spiritual journey through life.
Alright, that's it for this video.
This is Klaus. See you next time