China’s got a new economic plan.
Designed to counter
the threat of decoupling from the US.
What does it mean for the rest of the world?
Welcome to China Uncensored.
I’m Chris Chappell.
We’ve just been through an historic event that will set the direction of one of the
world's biggest economies for years to come.
And that historic event is... the Fifth Plenum of the 19th Central Committee of the Chinese
Communist Party!
Why, what did you think I was going to say?
China's top leaders have wrapped up a four-day gathering unveiling the country's critical
blueprint for the next five years.
The communist party of china today released the 14th five-year plan.
You know what they say about Communists.
They always have a 5-year plan.
Unfortunately, this year the Communist Party did not commission a catchy theme song to
explain their 14th five-year plan to foreigners.
So we’re just going to have to play the one from five years ago about the 13th 5-year
plan, the shi san wu.
If you know what’s coming, sing along.
If you wanna know what China’s gonna do, best pay attention to the shi san wu.
The shi san wu.
The shi san what?
The shi san wu.
Look, back in 2015, Chinese propaganda was going through an...experimentation...phase.
The point is, every five years, the Chinese Communist Party unveils a new economic plan.
This time, the five-year plan focuses a lot on what’s being called China’s “dual
circulation” economy.
I’ll let Chinese state-run media explain.
But what exactly is a dual circulation economy?
The concept has two equally strong components: "internal circulation," which refers to domestic
economic activities, and "external circulation," which relates to China's economic links with
the outside world.
It signals that China wants to reduce the role of international trade in its economy,
and strengthen its domestic economy.
You know, Chinese propaganda was more fun when they were experimenting.
So why is the Chinese Communist Party trying to strengthen China’s domestic economy?
Because of the coronavirus that was totally not the Communist Party’s fault, and also
because America is a big fat meanie.
As the COVID-19 pandemic sends shudders across the world, the economic outlook outside China
does not look particularly optimistic at the moment.
Worsening China-U.S. relations have also loomed large in China's consideration, as the U.S.
contemplates decoupling and seems bent on crippling China's economic and technological
development.
Right.
That’s what’s happening.
The US is targeting Chinese companies to cripple China’s development.
It’s totally not because companies like Huawei, WeChat, and TikTok pose national security
threats to the US.
Just remember, everyone: China is the victim here.
But it’s true that there’s been a lot of talk in the last year or so about the US
decoupling from China economically.
That includes reducing America’s reliance on Chinese manufacturing, moving supply chains
out of China, and moving financial dealings out of Hong Kong.
And the coronavirus is speeding up the process of decoupling.
It was a shock to many countries when they couldn’t get medical supplies because they
were all made in China.
And when they finally were able to get medical supplies from China, there were concerns that
some of those medical supplies were poor quality.
Or made with forced labor.
Here’s a crazy idea: Maybe other countries can make medical supplies that aren’t poor
quality or made from slave labor.
Now despite that wake-up call, the idea of the US decoupling from China has been controversial.
While some people think decoupling can happen...
Others say it will backfire.
But one thing’s for sure: the Chinese Communist Party is terrified of decoupling.
And I’ll show you why after the break.
Welcome back.
The Chinese Communist Party is terrified of the US decoupling from China.
That’s why Chinese state-run media have run dozens of articles about why decoupling
is bad.
The US decoupling with China is a misjudgment.
Decoupling is not feasible.
It’s unrealistic and harmful.
But it will only harm the US.
And anyway, it’s doomed to fail.
You get the idea.
So Chinese officials are a tad bit concerned about the US decoupling from China.
Which is why in this new 14th five-year plan, they are seeking complete economic self-reliance.
According to my favorite state-run media, the Global Times, China will “focus on boosting
the domestic supply chain and homegrown innovation to become completely self-reliant in economy
and core technologies.”
Now you might think, hold on, doesn’t complete economic self-reliance sound like China is
decoupling from other countries?
Well that’s where you’re wrong!
It’s totally not decoupling.
Economic self-reliance through this “dual circulation” strategy is one that the Chinese
Communist Party has been talking about since May.
“This model entails engaging international capital, financial, and technological markets
when advantages can be gained while simultaneously bolstering indigenous capabilities to avoid
over-reliance on the global economy.”
So don’t worry, foreign investors.
The Chinese Communist Party still wants your money.
Over the weekend, the Party published a speech from Chinese leader Xi Jinping in their official
policy journal, Qiushi.
Which in English means “Seeking Truth”.
It makes sense because the Communist Party needs to seek the truth in order to find it..
and then hide it better.
Xi Jinping actually gave this speech back in April, but the fact that Qiushi published
it now means it’s directly related to the Communist Party’s new 5-year plan.
So what did Xi talk about?
A lot of it was about everybody’s favorite topic: supply chains.
Wait!
Don’t change the channel.
This is important.
“Xi Jinping called for setting up independent and controllable supply chains to ensure industrial
and national security.”
You know, this is one of those rare occasions when I say, maybe we could learn something
from the Chinese Communist Party here.
I mean, sure they’re great at starting personality cults and purging their enemies, but they
definitely know their supply chains, too.
So when Xi Jinping calls for supply chains that are “independent, controllable, safe,
and reliable,” that’s not a bad idea.
After all, a large part of the US decoupling from China is also about having supply chains
in the US that are “independent, controllable, safe and reliable.”
Which from America’s perspective means supply chains that are not controlled by China.
In Xi Jinping’s speech, he also said that the Communist Party must “tighten the dependence
of the international industrial supply chain on China, and form a strong counter-measure
and deterrent ability for foreign parties to artificially cut off supply.”
Basically, Xi wants China to be able to counter any attempts to cut off China’s
imports of necessary goods through sanctions.
Here’s an example of what he’s afraid of: Last year the US tightened sanctions on
Chinese telecom company Huawei.
Those sanctions prevented companies from selling Huawei US technology.
Or selling Huawei things that were made with US technology, even if those things were not
made in the US.
Like semiconductor chips.
Those sanctions slowed Huawei’s sales growth.
But even worse for Huawei, they started running out of smartphone chips because of the sanctions.
So now Huawei is trying to set up a chip plant in China that would not use any US technology.
So that’s one reason why Chinese officials are afraid of US decoupling.
They don’t want the US to be able to cut off goods to China.
But the other part of Xi Jinping’s statement is also illuminating.
In addition to preventing other countries from cutting off China’s supply, Xi said
that the Communist Party must “tighten the dependence of the international industrial
supply chain on China.”
So while China is becoming less dependent on the rest of the world, they also want to
make the rest of the world *more* dependent on China.
I’ll explain how after the break.
Welcome back.
China wants to be less dependent on other countries, while making other countries more
dependent on China.
By doing things like dominating medical supplies.
Or becoming the biggest trading partner for countries and making them dependent on buying
stuff from China, and selling stuff to China.
Even if other countries are not completely dependent on China, it’s enough to make
them believe that it would be too painful and costly to lose China as a trade partner.
A good example is Australia, which exports a lot of goods to China.
China and Australia are in the middle of a diplomatic and trade dispute.
It picked up steam back in April after Australia called for an independent investigation into
the origins of the coronavirus.
Since then, Chinese officials have placed import bans on a bunch of Australian goods.
Those bans could stop 6 billion Australian dollars worth of goods.
This week, tons of live Australian lobsters were left stranded at an airport in China.
Won’t somebody think of the lobsters?!
Meanwhile, Chinese state-run media have directly said that China is importing less from Australia
because of Australia’s political stance.
So with the Chinese Communist Party essentially trying to use trade to bully Australia, maybe
Australia should think of ways to diversify its exports to other countries.
Doesn’t anyone else want Australian lobsters?
But according to a former Australian ambassador to China, Australia’s economic dependency
on China will not change.
He said that Australia needs to find a way to reset the relationship with China.
Because “talk about Australia significantly diversifying its economic relationship with
China by turning to other markets is ‘nothing other than wishful thinking.’”
So the former ambassador’s message is that Australia is always going to be dependent
on China and there’s nothing Australia can do about it except be nicer to China.
At this point you might be thinking, is this guy working for China?
Close.
He runs a China business advisory firm.
And he’s on the board of a Chinese-owned coal mining company in Australia.
With former ambassadors like these, who needs enemies?
But the point is that the Chinese Communist Party’s strategy in the five year plan,
as directly stated by Xi Jinping, is to make China a self-reliant economy while keeping
the rest of the world’s economy dependent on China.
You know, sometimes, when Party leaders tell us what they’re going to do, we should believe
them.
Especially since it looks like Chinese officials are already doing it to Australia.
And the US will be next.
Because remember, America is the real bully.
And now, it’s time for me to answer another question from one of you, a fan who supports
China Uncensored on the crowd funding website Patreon.
Jason says, “Chris, Matt, and Shelly should build the Zhongnanhai in minecraft, fill it
with commies, and then they drop millions upon millions of tons of TnT on it.
That's the quality content i pay monthly to see
Well that’s good to know Jason.
So in a recent episode called China Is Targeting Americans about how China is threatening to
kidnap Americans, I lament that people seem more interested in watching Minecraft lets
plays than China Uncensored.
That’s a video from Mumbo Jumbo, one of my favorite Minecrafters.
And so many of you have been suggesting Matt, Shelley and I start our own Minecraft lets
play.
That is something we *could* do.
But is that something you *want* us to do?
Let me know in the comments.
And Jason, if enough people agree with you, maybe you will be seeing us build Zhongnanhai
in Minecraft.
I have no idea how long that would take.
Probably way too long.
Thanks for the suggestion Jason.
And if you like the show, be like Jason and support China Uncensored through the crowdfunding
website Patreon.
And I might answer your question at the end of an episode.
Or build your face in Minecraft.
Thank you for watching.
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Once again I’m Chris Chappell.
See you next time.