(dramatic music)
- [Narrator] These satellite images show silos
designed to house
intercontinental ballistic missiles or ICBMs,
according to military analysts.
Hundreds have been constructed in China's desert regions
in the last couple of years.
The launchpads are one step in China's growth
as a Nuclear force,
touted in footage broadcast by Chinese state media,
and analysts say they're getting closer
to matching the US' capabilities across land, sea, and air.
Both countries are unlikely to deploy nuclear weapons,
but reaching triad capabilities
enforces China's strength as a nuclear power.
So we unpack how the US and China's
current Nuclear arsenals match up.
(dramatic music)
Since World War Two, the US
has been testing nuclear weapons.
This created a decades long lead on China,
but military analysts and US officials
say China's capabilities are rapidly growing
under President Xi Jinping.
China currently has an estimated inventory of 400 war heads
but the Pentagon says it's on the path
to having as many as 1500 by 2035.
Compare that to the US, which has an operational
warhead inventory, restricted to 1,550.
(dramatic music)
And China's nuclear modernization process
involves more than increasing the number of warheads.
The country is also advancing the types of launchers
in all three triad areas.
Land-based systems are key
in that three-pronged nuclear structure.
For China, it's the DF-41, an ICBM
which defense analysts say could be deployed in those silos.
The missiles can also be launched from mobile systems.
And the US military says China
now has more land-based launchers than the US.
The DF-41 is likely capable of carrying three warheads,
defense analysts say,
using what's called a MIRV System.
MIRV enables the weapons
to deliver multiple warheads for different targets,
dropping them at separate points along the same trajectory.
And Chinese state officials
said the missile can travel up to 9,300 miles,
making it one of the longest range weapons
of it's type in Beijing's arsenal.
Compare that with the US version, the Minuteman Three.
The missile has a range of over 6,000 miles.
It's also capable of carrying three warheads using MIRV,
but the US limits it's systems to only deploy one.
Analysts say that China's expansion on land
is partly to do with America's development
of conventional or non-nuclear weapons.
- The Americans have a military
that is increasingly emphasizing
long range conventional precision strike.
- [Narrator] Hans Kristensen has been studying the status
of US nuclear weapons since the early 1980s.
- Those types of weapons that, for many targets,
can hold at risk targets
that previously needed nuclear warheads to be held at risk.
And this is in fact a serious concern for the Chinese
and one of the reasons, I think,
that they're building these large silo fields
deep inside China.
- [Narrator] The Chinese government
did not respond to a WSJ request for comment
on whether the building of the silos
was tied to American military advancements.
And a senior Chinese official
would not confirm the missile silos
in comments to state TV in 2022.
However, the official did say
the size of China's nuclear force
should not be estimated, based on satellite imagery.
Those silos also reveal a key issue with land-based systems.
They're visible.
So building nuclear missiles for submarines, or SSBNs,
is a way to remain incognito.
Defense experts say Beijing's current underwater fleet
has some crucial vulnerabilities.
- The Chinese nuclear submarines
are widely believed to be much noisier than American ones.
- [Narrator] That's Dr. Tong Zhao.
He's been researching China's nuclear weapons
for more than 10 years.
- And that would significantly undermine
the overall survivability of the Chinese submarines
and therefore undermine the overall credibility
of it's sea-based nuclear deterrence.
- [Narrator] Another crucial differentiator
is how far the missiles launched
from the vessels can travel.
Take China's newest Jin Class submarine
compared with the latest US version, the Ohio Class.
This submarine carries the Trident Two Missile,
which can travel approximately 6,480 nautical miles.
Whereas China's carries JL-2 missiles
which have a shorter range
of approximately 3,800 nautical miles.
The JL-2 is sufficient for China to target Alaska,
Guam and Hawaii from waters near China,
some military experts say,
but to hit US mainland targets,
Beijing's vessels would need to be deployed
farther from China's coast into the Pacific
where military experts say the US has an advantage.
That's because the US has placed
anti-submarine defenses in the waterway,
limiting China's ability to travel deep into the waters.
- They can go out and and take all sorts of positions,
where are they gonna strike from?
How close are they gonna be to the Chinese mainland?
- [Narrator] But China's ability to strike anywhere
could come together with the deployment
of it's new JL-3 system.
The Pentagon says it has an estimated range
of over 5,400 nautical miles,
and would for the first time,
place the west coast of the US
within incredible striking range of China.
The last piece of a nuclear triad status,
capabilities in the air.
For China, it may come down to
the H20 Stealth Strategic Bomber.
It's yet to be unveiled, but in a 2022 report,
the pentagons of the aircraft
would have a range of 6,200 miles.
This could help China to reach previously
out of range areas of the Western Pacific,
including this US basin, Guam.
It's unclear when the aircraft will be ready for deployment.
- Are they already fully operationally deployed
or are they still going through testing and readjustments?
We don't know.
(audience clapping and cheering)
- [Narrator] In contrast, the US has already
released new advancements in the air,
with this B-21 stealth bomber unveiled in early December.
- [Hans] This will be the first time that the United States
has long range nuclear cruise missiles on a stealth bomber.
- [Narrator] Military analysts say
the plane helps to modernize
the country's large, but aging fleet.
- Even when the Chinese get their
bomber force up to full snuff,
it's still not a global strike force
like the American at all.
- [Narrator] Even with the US ahead in the air,
China's growth is likely to continue.
Experts on world nuclear powers
say that President Xi Jinping's interest
in expanding Beijing's nuclear arsenal has increased
as China becomes an economic and political rival to the US.
- (indistinct) China is able to catch up
with United States in terms of comprehensive national power.
His thinking is the more desperate the US would become
to contain China, to make trouble for China.
- [Narrator] While it's extremely unlikely
either nation will actually deploy nuclear weapons,
the Pentagon has said China's expanding nuclear stockpile
could negatively impact global strategic stability.
- The prospect of a US China war over Taiwan
or another regional flashpoint
is much realistic than before.
- [Narrator] The Biden administration
has attempted to reduce the threat of a nuclear conflict
by pushing for arms control talks with China.
But China has rejected those overtures,
citing it's smaller inventory
and saying the US should reduce it's stockpile first.
And military analysts note that China's expansion
also comes after decades of criticizing
the United States and Soviet Union
for possessing nuclear triad status.
- [Dr. Tong Zhao] China sees itself
as a leading international power
which deserves to possess the same capabilities
as the other nuclear major powers.
(mellow music)