US President Joe Biden's popularity is at rock bottom. What do I mean by
that? Well it has sunk so low that we could practically say that it is sinking into the
deepest pits of the electoral ocean. Pay close attention to the data:
as of mid-July 2022 some polls suggested that 71% of voters did not want him to run again,
including 54% of Democrats. That latter percentage rises to 94% among young Democrats
between the ages of 18 and 29. A whopping 94%. N1(President Biden is facing a disaster with young
voters, increasing fears among Democrats that they are in danger of losing a generation if he doesn't
improve his standing with Generation Z - LA Post) And that's not all.
If we take an average of the polls we can see that the president's approval rating keeps falling.
As you can see, since he took office, in just a year and a half his approval
rating has dropped 20 points. [Crazy!] But how is this possible, and what could explain
such a debacle in the president's rating? Well let’s get back to Biden. To be fair,
since the chaotic, undignified and disastrous way in which the withdrawal from Afghanistan took
place – something that we here on VisualPolitik are strongly critical of – we have to acknowledge
that the team formed by President Biden, Secretary of State, Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense,
Lloyd Austin, has reaped quite a few foreign policy goals... And I don't just mean small ones:
For example, these three characters are leading US and Western support for Ukraine in a war that
has completely derailed the Kremlin's plans and shattered much of Russia's military capability.
They have also been able to consolidate and bring together both NATO and the Atlantic
relationship. In fact, under Biden, Washington has once again become a
leader in Europe and today the North Atlantic Treaty Organization seems stronger than ever.
And it's not just Europe; it’s a very similar story in Asia:
The current administration's policy has far exceeded China's ambitions to take control of
regional dominance. For example, there are the cases of the AUKUS program that seeks to make
Australia a superpower; or the strengthening of relations with Japan and South Korea,
the latter being given, by the way, full freedom for the development of ballistic missiles.
We could also mention the reaffirmed defense of Taiwan, the improvement of
bilateral relations between US allies in the area,
the strengthening of the Quad and the new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
We've discussed all this in a past video here on VisualPolitik. The Biden administration's
activity in the Pacific is becoming almost as frenetic as it is in Europe.
But even in the Middle East, where Biden's relations with the Saudi government are frankly
bad, his administration is supporting the creation of a kind of new military
alliance that includes not only several Arab countries but also the State of Israel.
In other words, we are talking about a strengthening of the presence,
influence and relations of the United States that we have not seen for decades.
However, hold on a minute, because despite all this,
Biden's popularity is still colder than an ice floe in the middle of Antarctica.
And the question, the big question is: How on earth is this possible? What on
earth could explain why the president's popularity has plummeted in such a way?
Well... VisualPolitik fans, the answer may have to do with the constant gaffes, like when he said
he had cancer and the White House had to deny it. Or maybe it has to do directly with the fact that
it is more than evident that the president is old, very old. Among other things,
this makes him totally clueless when it comes to promoting his achievements.
But I honestly believe it also has to do with this:
That's right, we are talking about what we could describe as the great failure of Bidenomics.
Because, VisualPolitik fans, when Joe Biden won the election he not only promised institutional
regeneration, he also promised a 180-degree turnaround in economic policy so that the
federal government would once again lead the "rebuilding" of the United States of America.
Some even described Biden's arrival as ushering in a new economic paradigm that would put an end,
once and for all, to Ronald Reagan's low-tax, small-state, deregulation-based
America – as if such a thing still existed. And don’t think that it was just something
exogenous. Biden's own entourage argued that his coming to power would lead to something
practically equivalent to Roosevelt's New Deal after the Great Depression of 1929.
And so, during the election campaign, Biden spoke of things such as recovering the
influence of labor unions, fighting resolutely against climate change, canceling student debt,
sorting out the migratory chaos and rebuilding the old American infrastructure. And above all,
he spoke a lot about stimulating investment, private investment and above all,
leading the new economy, public investment. So, in a way, we could say, paradigm shift or not,
what Joe Biden did clearly promise was to rebuild America with a very Democratic agenda.
However, since then.... The results have not been exactly as expected.
In some cases because the projects have stalled or have come to almost nothing.
And in others because well.... I think the headlines speak for themselves:
N2(13 July 2022: US inflation reached a new 40-year high in June of 9.1 percent. Politico)
N3(25 July 25 2022: The numbers show the US economy
is at least teetering on a recession - CNBC) But... Where exactly has Bidenomics failed? What
is not working with current White House policy? What is causing Americans to emphatically want
to dump the current president? Well... Let's take a look.
But before we go any further, we have some very, very special news to tell
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We hope you like the new channel and above all we are looking forward to your comments.
T1(A REVOLUTION AT HALF THROTTLE)
The Biden presidency began with a flurry of activity,
but, by the end of the first half of 2022 this Administration had basically accomplished only
three things with its new economic policy: A plan to fight Covid somewhat smaller than
Trump's and which became real fuel for inflation. An increase through presidential orders and
directives in government spending over the next decade of $530 billion. An increase primarily
to improve the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, a voucher plan for low-income families.
And finally, a bipartisan infrastructure project much smaller than promised.
Then, it has to be said, in late July 2022, the Biden administration won surprise votes to
push through the so-called Inflation Reduction Act, a bill that includes several tax hikes,
including a 15% minimum payment on profits and an unprecedented expansion of the tax
collection system. Also hundreds of billions of dollars in new spending.
For example, $385 billion will be used to combat climate change, promote electric vehicles and
strengthen the production of clean energy. Still, the bill is only a fraction of the
Administration's initial promise. And virtually all other Bidenomics policies have run aground,
and given the president's extremely low popularity and the Republicans' improved
prospects with voters, it doesn't look like this "revolution without
gas" can go much further, either with the current administration or an upcoming one.
So let's see who dares to catch such a knife falling into the void!
Of course, this is not to say that Biden's presidency is over – far from it.
The international situation has put foreign policy in the spotlight. And as we have already
mentioned, the Biden Administration is doing anything but standing still.
However, as far as economic policy is concerned? Failure seems more than likely. And to top it off,
the worst phase of the president's popularity may be just beginning:
N4(26 July 2022: Most investors, economists see Fed rate hikes causing
a recession within one year, CNBC survey shows) But apart from what he has failed to make happen,
the question we are all wondering is.... Where exactly has Joe Biden gone wrong? Listen up.
T2(WHAT AMERICA DIDN'T NEED)
VisualPolitik fans, basically, the President and his team misdiagnosed
the situation of the US economy. And from then on, everything went from bad to worse:
One example is Biden's pandemic crash plan, which poured tens and hundreds of billions
into the US economy when it was already recovering much faster than expected:
the result? Gasoline under the influence of galloping inflation.
And that's not all. For example, within the above plan was a virtually universal,
cash tax credit of up to $300 per month per child, depending on the case.
This was an initiative that the Biden Administration thought would be welcomed
with open arms by the US citizenry, which would allow them to consolidate it permanently.
Well, nothing could be further from the truth, barely a third of Americans support making this
policy permanent.... Which, of course, allowed Republicans to decide that they would not vote
for its renewal beyond the first year. N5(1 in 3 want expanded child tax credits
to be made permanent: poll. – The Hill) Think about it, why support the government
permanently handing out cash checks in a context where there is plenty
of available work and increasing wages? Be that as it may, what is clear is that one
of the star measures of this administration failed to win general support. But what it
did do was cost a lot of money, increase public debt and further fuel inflation.
Then, along the same lines, the diagnosis that poorer America was falling behind and
therefore needed the government to boost new jobs was simply not true. In fact,
since 2010 it has been precisely the lowest wage brackets that have been growing the most.
So it’s a case of, more effort, more money and new regulations thrown down the drain.
And then we have taxes. The obsession of this administration has been to raise taxes
on businesses and supposedly on the wealthiest. The problem is that, for example, the corporate
income tax hikes from 21% to 28% advocated by Joe Biden would not only return the United States
to having one of the highest tax rates in the developed world, but would also contribute to
slowing down business investment, slowing down the economy and increasing production costs.
Exactly what not to do in times of inflation. To top it all off, another thing that the
Democrats did not take into account is that in recent years the percentage of
families who have their savings and pension plans invested in the stock market has risen
again. Families who, naturally, are not amused by measures such as this one.
N6(12 May 2022: Gallup finds 58% of Americans reporting that they own stock, based on its
April Economy and Personal Finance survey. This is slightly higher than the 56% measured
in 2021 and 55% measured in 2020. – Gallup) In short, Biden has pushed an economic policy
based on large public spending plans and tax increases that society did not need,
that society did not want, and that was not even desirable given the economic context.
A policy that, in addition, has ended up driving the highest inflation in the last 40
years. This has forced the Federal Reserve to react. Which in turn looks set to end
with the US economy going into recession, the government squandering hundreds of billions of
dollars and families losing purchasing power. It couldn't have gone worse, at least from the
point of view of the popularity of Bidenomics. And wait a minute, because we're not done yet.
Another major change promised by the Biden administration had to do with the energy
transition and the fight against climate change. Something that, to tell the truth, even with the
data in hand, how can I put it… doesn't exactly generate much enthusiasm among
the American public, particularly at times like this. Take a look.
C1("Only 1% of voters cited climate change as the most important issue facing the country, far
behind concerns about inflation and the economy. Even among voters under 30, the group thought to
be most motivated by the issue, that figure was 3%." David Wallace-Wells, NYT columnist)
Be that as it may, the point is that Biden's team put the oil industry firmly in its sights.
As soon as he arrived at the White House, the president began issuing executive orders
against the oil industry one after another. And so, among other measures, President Biden
halted drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, canceled construction of the Keystone X
pipeline with Canada, ordered government agencies to study new rules to curb consumption, freeze
permits, raise taxes and reduce funding for oil companies, and even placed a moratorium on leasing
federal lands to search for and drill for oil. All these measures not only sought to punish
the US oil industry, but above all to send a very clear message to the market: that it was not worth
investing large amounts of money in the oil sector because the government was going to punish it.
In this light, it was a big mistake. All these policies we have seen led to
increasing demand and at the same time damaging supply just when the economy was recovering
at full speed. It is possible that without Biden's actions things might not have been
much different... Or maybe they would, what is clear is that Bidenomics has gone in the
wrong direction and that it has become one of the major culprits of the economic imbalances
that are punishing American families today. Because Biden could indeed do many things.
Listen up. T3(WHAT AMERICA DOES NEED)
If Biden wanted to improve the standard of living of American families,
his priority should have been to take measures to promote investment, both public and private.
In the case of public investment, as we have told you in our Patreon
bulletin, the problem is that the federal government spends more and more but invests
less and less. In other words, the vast majority of the entire budget
goes to welfare or non-productive spending. And so, instead of investing in research or
infrastructure, such as interstate highways or the Hoover Dam, spending has largely shifted to
social welfare, defense and debt service. If we add defense spending and payments to
individuals – salaries, subsidies and income of all kinds – then we can account for 85.4% of all
federal spending, compared to 71.2% in 1990. This means that despite large public deficits,
spending on other items such as infrastructure, space exploration and R&D is being crushed. In
other words, public investment is becoming smaller and smaller as a proportion of GDP.
And to top it off, net investment by US companies has also been falling for almost 40 years. Take a
look.Attempting to change this trend with supply-side policies would have
made a decisive contribution to curbing inflation and improving the purchasing
power of American families in the long run. But within Bidenomics all this was the smallest part.
In short: yes, unemployment is almost at its lowest level since 1969, but employment
rates – which are recovering much more slowly – are not. And that's without mentioning that due
to massive inflation, real wages are contracting. Which explains why consumer sentiment is
almost as low as it was during the great crisis of 2008. Check it out.
So what does this mean? Well, that today – and perhaps without much reason – US consumers are
pessimistic about the near future. And that is largely because they understand
that Bidenomics hasn't worked at all. Let's just say that it doesn't matter that
the fundamentals of the US economy appear robust: Biden came in with a plan that has
done nothing but make things worse. And, this is one of the reasons for
Joe Biden's low popularity. So no matter that his Administration is scoring big on
foreign policy, if the economic outlook does not change, the Biden presidency will not go
down in history as a popular presidency. But having said that, what is your opinion
of Bidenomics? Do you think the current administration has time to change gear and
achieve better results? Do you think public opinion is being excessively unfair to it?
Leave us your comments below and let's open a debate. And of course,
if you found this video interesting, don't forget to like and subscribe to VisualPolitik.
Thank you very much for watching. All the best and see you next time.