Lesser-known analyst, Peter crowd thinks we're going to see $300 this bull market.
Around 2000 to 2002, oars, that's a 1999 to 2001. You had a similar messy, period,
a transition again, to a start of a precious metals bull market.
So, from about late 1999 until about 2001,
when some people saw the.com peak and figured there's a switch.
Now we're going to move into a new era where bonds and stocks
have had their run and it's the time now for Precious metals
people, some people got into precious metals and if they were able to hold on long enough,
they rode a fantastic bull market for at least,
arguably a decade before you had a what I call a mid secular bull a correction.
But again that that messy transition period, was hard to hang on.
And yet it was very lucrative, if you were able to assess where we were partake in it,
and then again, as I say, hang on back over the last 22 years.
Years since 2000,
Silver, and Gold, Have handily beat stocks.
The S&P is up about a hundred and eighty percent.
Silver is up about two hundred and fifty percent and gold is up over five hundred percent.
So if you ask the average investor,
where's the best place been to be
in the last say 20, 22 years through almost, invariably are going to hear stocks. And yet,
that is not the case at all today.
So I still, as I say very much believe, despite the corrections we've been through,
we are in a long-term.
Secular bull market for precious metals.
Silver and particular,
outperforms gold.
The first three of these of these charts or portions of these
charts show both cycles for precious metals.
And as you can see the bull, the blue line runs up above, especially in the latter.
Part runs up above the yellow line. So silver, as I say,
proves itself,
time and time again, to outperform gold in Bull markets in Precious Metals, bull markets.
So we have yet to see that this I'm around,
but that certainly bodes well for the potential for silver.
But with the US dollar Index now near 109 110 and who knows perhaps running to 115 120.
It's impossible to see. But with the FED continuously,
raising rates and the Outlook is still as I say for a couple of more rate hikes chances are that at
the very least, the ratio is going to stay elevated and that could act as a headwind for silver.
We look at Silver before.
For during and around recessions.
Both metals tend to struggle before recessions that middle section.
That narrow section is how they react during recessions and so you
can see that silver struggles more than gold does during recess.
But then the right part is post-recession.
And so you see a lot more green because that means
that silver tends to outperform during the periods.
The especially at 12 months that when you come out of a recession and that
intuitively makes sense because silver has the industrial component to it.
Inventories on the comex and on the London exchange have been falling,
especially since say, the middle or so of last year.
And we've seen six to nine months of continuous drawdown.
So someone wants to take physical possession of that silver. For whatever reason,
I like to see that silver is sticky money.
So, this chart shows the,
the sort of grayish pink portion of the grade that colored area at the bottom shows,
silver,
physical silver, inventories in ETF, silver, ETF globally.
And so, the first thing to notice is that since the first silver ETF in 2006 on balance,
this has almost only either grown or moved sideways.
Lead over. That is the squiggly line in purple is the silver price.
So the silver price is obviously quite volatile goes through, run ups,
and then Corrections and then move sideways. And then goes through more run-ups.
But and those are the blue periods. When you have Corrections in the silver price,
those blue bars.
So those black arrows that I've overlaid over that shows is to try and point out that despite
the fact that you've had either Large or still notable Corrections in the silver price.
You still have silver inventories during those considerable or medium Corrections in the
silver price. You still have silver inventories in ETFs, either move sideways, mainly, or even,
actually increase. So, people tend to buy silver and hold on to it again on balance,
between 2013 and 2021 solar demand grew 125 percent for silver in.
When he won, it was up 13 percent.
And this year, it's expected to grow another 12%.
So, the green bars are the growth in in demand for silver, from the solar industry,
the orange line across. That is the amount of silver that goes into each solar panel.
That of course, has been leveling off.
But if you look at the expected upcoming Technologies for solar panels,
it's likely that the next technology will use about 50 percent more per pound.
Well and the one to follow on that could use as much as a hundred and fifty percent
more silver per panel and there are all sorts of developments coming in China.
That dominates the the solar panel industry,
they've got things like double sided, solar panels,
which would naturally likely double the amount of silver required for each panel.
So are all kinds of things in the pipeline.
Suggest that the solar industry is really going to help
keep very much very much robust demand for silver.
Silver has got its challenges we talked about recession especially if there's a Slowdown
and Industrial demand could certainly perhaps be affected the strong dollar,
strong bond,
yields as bonds become especially with higher yields and alternative and attractive asset,
perhaps instead for some investors for silver. And I talked about the transition.
But the Outlook, I think,
Eames bullish.
I think that inflation unbalance is likely to remain high.
The dollar will certainly Peak at some point.
It's tough on multinationals American multinationals, that sell around the world,
especially when their products are more expensive based on the exchange,
I think, industrial,
demand will remain supportive and I think in some point investment demand will kick in I say,
inflation is going to remain high because when you look at the
the energy crisis, especially in Europe right now,
some people are facing The bills are 10 times above the levels,
they had last year Europe is talking about committing as much as close to 400
billion dollars over the next few years to help cap people's electricity bills.
Britain has said over the next two years,
it would cap electricity bills. That's likely to cost them over a hundred billion dollars.
And then you've got things like the u.s.
student loan bailouts program that's going to cost apparently,
according to the Congressional budget office as much as three
hundred and thirty billion dollars over the next 10 years.
And then you have what, I Put in quotes the inflation reduction act,
that's going to be a lot of money invested in production energy production.
Supposed to reduce carbon emissions by about 40 percent, over 10 years.
And then
about three hundred, seventy billion dollars will go to Renewables and to new climate measures.
But the implications for solar are huge.
There was a study by Princeton Dartmouth and a couple of other research groups that together
looked at the effects of the inflation reduction act and they said that in 1920 At certain 2020,
you had 10 gigawatts of new installation of solar per year.
They expect that by 2020 for. So, just two years out. That could be five times that level by 2030.
Could be 10 times the 2020 level.
And so, the read,
the ACT is supposed to shovel about 320 billion dollars towards solar alone,
that would double the current growth levels.
And they've actually renewed, they've, they've extended the solar investment tax credit.
So it's really a lot of Port and push for solar.
This is why we've been facing deficits in the silver.
On the silver supply side, there was about a 50 million Oz deficit in 2021.
We're expecting about a 70 million ounce deficit this year
and the silver Institute expects deficits for years.
On end
if you look at the miners Switching gears they've been the larger miners.
Have been very much Happy with their free cash flow on balance gold and silver
have our Above considerably above levels that they were at a few years ago,
and if specifically, if you look at the Gold side,
they've had big budget, they've been spending on exploration,
but the lack of discoveries is obvious. If you look at those bars at the bottom,
on the right side,
there have been no major discoveries on the gold side.
Silver miners are not spending on capex.
That means on their,
in their current production to expand and to renew things as well as on the exploration.
Incite. So it certainly looks like especially on the silver side,
they've downloaded that effort to the Juniors.
And so one of the threats to Silver Supply is that only about
30 percent under 30 percent comes from primary silver.
Mining as much as 70% comes from mining other metals like gold copper lead and zinc.
And so if you have a,
if you do have a slow down and you do have some pull
back in the production of some of these base Metals.
That's almost certainly going to affect the silver Supply and exacerbate things.
If you look at Silver versus Commodities over the last couple of years
Commodities that have exploded higher silver has not kept up,
it would need to double its current price just to get the kinds of returns
you've had in the last two years. In Commodities overall,
the Outlook near term actually could be quite bullish.
The next several months you've got
in very a typical situation with with hedgers the smart money hedgers being the
Companies like the large producers and so on that have bullish bets right now,
their net long and silver Futures,
that really does not happen very often.
So that means they really don't see very much downside at all in, silver price.
And so the opportunity and silver is physical, silver,
or silver stocks
physical silver right now, unfortunately,
especially the coins. And the,
some of the bars are have really high premiums and given what's been happening in the lack
of spending by the A lot of the majors I really see a lot of opportunity in the Explorers.
They are highly undervalued, especially in the last six months.
And you know, it's one thing to look at the silver price, which we tend to do in u.s. dollars.
But if you look at the silver price and a basket of major currencies around the world,
that's that blue line.
It has easily surpassed, especially in the last sort of 8, to 10 years,
what it's done in the u.s. dollars.
So that's what a lot of people around the world are seeing in terms of silver price.
So,
It has not been as depressed as perhaps a lot of us.
Tend to think
very quickly. Some forecasts in terms of the silver price guy,
you may know Rick rule thinks in the next five years will see silver north and 50 Keith
neumeier of first Majestic thinks we're going to see Triple digit. This bull market citigroup's,
he's forty dollars in a year fifty to a hundred dollars in the coming years
Goering and rosensweig sees as much as 500. This decade,
great guy.
Presenting here CH Inland Seas silver. As the next lithium,
he says that if you sell it 30 or $40, you're going to regret it and an obscure,
lesser-known analyst, Peter crowd thinks we're going to see, $300,
this bull market.
So,
take that for what it's worth to wrap up.
Remember, silver is crucial to the Green Revolution.
I talked only about solar but you've got a like Tronics.
You got all sorts of other aspects that were silver is irreplaceable.
It's an inflationary acid. It's proven.
Itself over decades and centuries to prove to purchase to protect your purchasing power.
It's a money.
It's been money for thousands of years and it certainly is historically undervalued.