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the description. This is the Nile River—perhaps the single
most legendary waterway in the world. It originates somewhere roughly here, potentially in Uganda
or Burundi, but its tributaries are so convoluted that no one knows for sure where its true
source is. It starts in earnest, though, here, on the Ugandan side of Lake Victoria, and
snakes northward through the rest of Uganda and South Sudan before entering Sudan and
reaching its capital of Khartoum. This stretch from Lake Victoria to Khartoum is considered
the White Nile and, in Khartoum, it connects with the Blue Nile to become the Nile proper.
This other tributary starts at Lake Tana in Ethiopia and, while it’s the shorter and
potentially less well known of the two, its actually far larger than the White Nile as
it carries 85% of the water that flows through the Nile itself.
Of course, 100% of this immense river ends up passing through Egypt. Now, while these
may be their legal borders, for all intents and purposes, Egypt is not this, but this.
Some 95% of the country’s 98 million strong population lives within the narrow strip of
land flanking the Nile River. Truly, Egypt is the Nile and the Nile is Egypt. Almost
all of its power and influence, both modern and ancient, is linked to this waterway. Of
course, much of what most people know this country for is its past, rather than its present,
as for nearly three millennia, Ancient Egypt was one of the most powerful and advanced
civilizations on earth. Of course one can’t link the success of any society to a single
factor, but it’s undeniable that at the time of the height of Ancient Egypt’s reign,
agricultural prowess was directly linked to societal advancement. You could only develop
new technology if you could produce enough food to feed the thinkers, and Egypt could
thanks to the Nile. Every year, in August and September, the river would flood over
its banks and then, in October, it would recede, leaving the floodplains well watered and fertilized,
and allowing for a very productive year of agriculture.
Upstream, while its stories might not be as frequently included in the high school history
books, what is now Sudan benefited from a similar effect. The Kingdom of Kush, in particular,
became an advanced society alongside the Nile, upstream from modern day Egypt, and still
to this day, much of the country’s population is concentrated in a narrow green zone along
the Nile. That’s mostly to say, Egypt and Sudan have benefited through history from
this river in a largely similar way, but then there’s the outlier: Ethiopia.
Now, comparing the satellite images of Egypt and Sudan to that of Ethiopia, there’s a
pretty clear difference—Ethiopia is green. Save for the coast, most of Egypt receives
less than ten millimeters of rain per year, on average. This is also the case for much
of Sudan, but then, in the south, the weather gets a little wetter, the land becomes a bit
greener, and dependence on the Nile lowers. Of course, further upstream, in the Ethiopian
Highlands, dependence on this river for water is nearly nonexistent. Certain areas receive
close to 80 inches or 200 centimeters of rain per year, which, in comparison, is four times
that of London. These immense rains, in fact, end up in the Nile itself, feeding most of
its flow, and eventually reach Sudan, Egypt, and the Mediterranean Ocean.
At least that was the case until the early 1900s. At that time, colonial powers and industrialists
sought not only to use the river, but to control and fundamentally reshape it. This began in
1902 with the opening of the Aswan Low Dam, then continued in the 1910s and 20s with the
development of the single largest irrigation system in the world in Sudan, and as time
went on, the flow of the Nile became less and less natural. With increasingly large
dams and irrigation projects, it slowly became clear that this was all, more and more, a
zero sum game. It became clear that the flow of the river was, indeed, finite.
Therefore, they needed treaties. In 1929, the British, representing Sudan and a few
other upstream countries, reached an agreement with Egypt that, in exchange for a number
of smaller concessions, gave the country unconditional veto power over upstream projects that it
believed would reduce the amount of water to reach them. This was followed up in 1959
with another agreement that gave Egypt the rights to 66% of the river’s flow, Sudan
22%, and the rest was considered to be lost to evaporation. Through time, these and other
agreements created a system where Egypt, with the help of Sudan, was, on paper, the master
of the entire river, even beyond their borders, despite their geographic position at the very
end of it. Except, the one country that was never party to any of these agreements was
Ethiopia—where most of the water originates. Still, Egypt has maintained that the Treaties
of 1929 and 1959 are binding agreements, underscored by their historic use of the river, regardless
of who was at the table or who represented the upstream states under colonial rule when
they were signed. They believe that they have a say in water projects upstream, outside
their borders, insofar as the river maintains the same rate of flow once it reaches Egypt.
This remained a nominal issue for most of the twentieth century, but it all changed
once Ethiopia had centralized enough power, political will, and money to start to reshape
the Nile. It all comes down to development. You see,
while Egypt’s historic development was thanks to the water of the Nile, it's now proving
to be a barrier. 97% of the country’s freshwater comes from this river and, while Egypt's population
has grown, the Nile has, effectively, shrunk. Therefore, annual water supply per capita
in the country has halved since 1970, even as the country’s economy has further developed.
The UN considers any country with under 1,000 cubic meters of water per person per year
as “water scarce.” Egypt has just 570. It is now, more than ever, held back by water—for
example, it has to import around half of its food, at huge cost to both its people and
the government, which subsidizes food. While the Nile may have been more than enough when
Egypt’s population was two or three or four million, thousands of years ago, it now is
far from that as they’re pushing up against a population of 100 million.
Ethiopia, meanwhile, does have significant issues with food security, but not exactly
because they don’t have enough water. As most people there live from harvest to harvest,
they’re prone to food shortages from a bad year. The semi-regular famines that ensue
are dramatic, but the country has managed to develop despite them. Since 2004, Ethiopia’s
GDP has grown about 10% per year, which is immense. In fact, between 2013 and 2018, it
became the fastest growing economy in the world, which is especially impressive given
its large size. Much of this growth has been fueled by one thing: infrastructure investment.
They’ve built a new railway to Djibouti, opened East Africa’s first light rail system
in Addis Ababa, and are planning the construction of Africa’s largest airport, however, the
story of Ethiopian infrastructure development is most defined by just one, single project:
the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Located in the north-west of the country,
this dam, once completed, will house the 8th largest hydroelectric power facility in the
world, it will be nearly three times larger than the next largest on the African continent,
and the reservoir behind it will be able to hold more water than the entire Blue Nile
itself. It will be able to produce, in a year, nearly 16,000 GWh of electricity. With that,
it could fulfill the power needs of 234 million Ethiopians. While that would be noteworthy
on its own, it’s even more so considering that the population of Ethiopia is only about
109 million. This project, in one fell swoop, will give the country a major power surplus.
That is exciting for Ethiopia for two reasons. First, it should have a multiplier effect
for development. Not only does building and operating the dam itself provide jobs, but
if this energy can make its way to rural areas especially, it could make certain jobs, such
as farming, more productive. According to the Rocky Mountain Institute, there’s about
$4 billion in potential economic opportunity just from electrifying small rural farms and
making their processes more efficient, which is the equivalent of about 5% of the country’s
GDP. Ethiopia has one of the lowest per capita power consumption rates in the world—the
average American consumes as much power as 186 Ethiopians—and increasing that can and
will improve quality of life and increase economic growth. In addition to that, though,
having more power than they need means that Ethiopia can become an energy exporter. The
country plans to sell power to neighboring Sudan, which is also severely energy starved,
and eventually Egypt, Djibouti, Uganda, and Tanzania too. All in all, according to the
World Bank, Ethiopia could become the largest power exporter in Africa—earning around
$1 billion a year. For Ethiopia and Ethiopians, this project
is a physical manifestation of the country’s stunning, inspiring rise, and, uniquely, it’s
truly their dam. Unlike most large infrastructure project in the region, this one was largely
self-funded by taxes and bonds that everyday Ethiopians bought. That means that a big chunk
of Ethiopian people are financially and emotionally linked to it, and it’s one of the rare unifying
causes in a country defined by ethnic violence and highly factional politics. To Ethiopians,
the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a powerful force for good. Downstream, though, perceptions
are very, very different. In Egypt, this new dam is viewed as an existential
threat. It’s a single project that has the potential to upend their entire way of life.
Ethiopia will have the ability to quite literally flip a switch to control how much water gets
to Egypt, and therefore how many people in the country are hungry or thirsty. While some
are concerned that Ethiopia will actually do this and remove water from the river to
use for agriculture, that’s not likely considering where the dam is—being so close to the border
with Sudan, this would require them to pump water back upstream, which would be hugely
expensive and impractical. The more real threat for Egypt is around what’s starting to happen
now—the filling of the reservoir. You see, given that the reservoir behind the
dam—required to keep the flow consistent even during drier seasons—can hold the contents
of the entire Blue Nile itself, the process of filling it could have a significant impact
on the flow rates of the river. While the long-term process of electricity generation
won’t actually remove any water from the river, as one must run it through the turbines,
the short-term process of filling the reservoir will likely lead to a period of a few years
when, in Egypt, there’s less water for agriculture, drinking, and generating electricity. The
big question therefore is: how long will the filling of the reservoir take? For Ethiopia,
they want this to happen as fast as possible. The sooner the reservoir is filled, the sooner
they can put all their turbines online, and the sooner they’ll get a return on their
investment. For Egypt, though, they don’t want this to happen at all, but if it does,
they at least want it to be filled as slow as possible, ideally in periods of heavy rain
when there’s a surplus of water. In their minds, it’s going to be easier to get through
a decade or so with slightly lower flows than just two or three years with dramatically
lower flows. Egypt is also worried about a foreign power having such an immense amount
of control over them—this potentially permanently gives Ethiopia the upper hand. If they don’t
get what they want from Egypt, they can just turn off the tap.
Both Egypt and Ethiopia, meanwhile, seem to think that this issue is worth escalating
tensions over, even though, to the external observer, it’s clear that there is a mutually
beneficial solution. On the western side of the continent, a quite similar situation exists
with the Senegal River. This waterway’s flow originates in the mountains of Guinea
and, to a lesser extent, Mali—two fairly rainy countries—and snakes westward to form
the border between Senegal and Mauritania—two rather dry countries. Recognizing that all
four countries rely on this river, but for different reasons, they formed an organization,
the Senegal River Basin Development Authority, to jointly manage the waterway for the mutual
benefit of all. This organization has crafted multinational agreements to ensure that the
downstream, drier countries have the water they need to ensure food security, while also
ensuring that the upstream countries can benefit from cheap, clean power. They built a hydroelectric
dam in Mali which shares its power jointly with Mauritania and Senegal, and then another
dam near the coast to prevent saltwater from making its way upstream, and to irrigate farmland
in Mauritania and Senegal. All in all, they treat the river as a multinational asset,
they recognize the dependence of downstream populations on it, and they ensure that any
development upstream is to the mutual benefit of all member states.
This can also be the case for the Nile. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can benefit
Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, such as through managing the flow to prevent floods, reduce
the impact of droughts, and increase productivity of all countries’ dams, but only if they
work together. The reality right now, though, is that Egypt, Ethiopia, and the other stakeholders
are incredibly far from this goal. Egypt maintains a rhetoric that predicts, “inevitable conflict”
if their demand are not met, while Ethiopia has reportedly been preparing for the prospect
of this by installing anti-aircraft batteries around the dam. Egypt has long been the political
master of the Nile, largely because it’s historically been the dominant economy along
the Nile, and so it seemingly can’t accept a future where that is no longer the case.
Ethiopia has always been the natural, geographic master of the waterway, but it is only just
now coming to realize that. Without experience in multinational cooperation over the river,
it can’t seem to accept much less than full control. There are really only two futures
with this river: either Ethiopia and Egypt come to cooperate, and then turn the Nile
into an economic engine for the entire region, or they don’t, and fall further into a conflict
which will hold them both back. This entire region could have a bright future, but to
get on the path towards that, they need to focus on the Nile as a tool for unification,
rather than division. They need to ignore the political relics of the region’s colonial
past, and forge their own future based on the realities of today. Once they do so, the
Nile could not only maintain its status as one of the most legendary waterways in the
world, but it could regain its position as one of the most economically influential ones,
just as it was many millennia ago. As I get ready for a winter with much more
time at home, one thing I’m doing is trying to find more passions I can pursue while indoors,
and one of the ways I’m doing this is with Skillshare. Of course they can help you get
ahead at work or school with all their classes on hard skills like graphic design, but I
really want to highlight how they can also help you have fun on your own. Two classes
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Whether you want to become a music producer, a YouTuber, a musician, an illustrator, an
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