I do!
No one knows exactly when the first marriage took place.
People have been getting married for thousands of years.
It’s an ancient institution. But for some people, it is perhaps a bit too ancient.
89% of the world’s population now live in countries with falling marriage rates.
This is especially pronounced in the richest countries.
Among the 38 OECD nations, most recorded between 7 and 10 marriages per 1,000 people in 1970.
By 1995, this fell to around 5 to 7 marriages. And it continues to plummet today.
So, why is this happening, and will it spell the end of marriage as we know it?
A stable marriage has often been associated with financial stability.
Married households in the U.S. hold significantly higher wealth than cohabiting couples or singles.
But despite this, the marriage rate in the U.S. has dropped by nearly 60% since the 1970s.
And the median age for first-time marriages has increased for both women and men.
For a variety of reasons, I think, upper- middle-class Americans are just much more
likely to be kind of intentional about sequencing their lives in terms of education first, work second,
and marriage third, and the baby carriage after all of that.
And so that they're just in a much better spot,
both financially and relationship-wise when they go ahead and have kids.
The cost of marriage usually starts with a wedding. This is a tiny wedding cake I bought
in London for $50. Thankfully, just within our production budget.
But if you wanted the same cake but big enough to serve 100 people,
then you would have to pay at least $250.
Add in the price of a venue, a tuxedo, a dress, drinks and music,
and suddenly, you are looking at a very large bill.
Getting married is just the tip of the iceberg. Starting a family adds all sorts of economic commitments.
It typically starts with a house, followed by a car,
maybe kids, which means more expenses like books, toys, and family vacations.
In a nutshell, you become a fully engaged consumer in the economy.
Some people choose not to go down this road while others simply can’t afford to.
From about 1980 to the present, there's been no greater increase in family instability
than there has been among this working-class demographic in the US.
basically in the second quintile of the family income distribution.
I think there are a couple of big factors here in play.
So, one major factor, of course, is sort of the changing economy,
and the way in which working class men are less likely to be stably employed.
American adults from high income groups have maintained a stable marriage rate since the 1970s.
But among the middle- and especially lower-income groups, marriages declined to
66% and 38% respectively by 2018.
Since the 1970s, there has been a decline in the number of American men
without college degrees in the U.S. labour force.
The last 50 years also saw their earnings stagnate and decrease.
By contrast, we're seeing women having a more secure footing in today's
sort of more service, post-industrial economy.
And so, we know that marriage is many things but it's also, in part, a financial undertaking.
And so when you have men who are losing ground financially in this working-class demographic,
and women who are gaining ground, I think they both kind of see that the guy is less marriageable.
And so, they're less likely to kind of get married in the first place, and more likely to get divorced in the second place.
Another phenomenon that affects marriage is the rise of secularism in modern societies.
Here in the U.K., for example, 1 in 3 people say they have no religion, up 25% since 2011.
And this is a key reason why marriage is no longer seen as the only basis for family formation.
In 2021, 51% of births in the U.K. took place outside of a marriage. 42% of children in the European Union
and 40% of children in the U.S. are also born to unmarried parents.
For countries where this is acceptable socially, the decline in marriage
does not necessarily spell trouble for the country’s demographics.
But in other parts of the world, most notably in east and south Asia,
marriage and birth rates are highly correlated.
Only 2.3% of babies are born outside of marriage in Japan, which means if people don’t get married,
they’re also very unlikely to have children.
This is a problem for Japan, the world’s 3rd largest economy, and home to the world’s oldest population.
The falling birth rate is something that happens in many countries.
And governments all over the world are worried because of economic implications.
From state funded match making apps to marriage support concierges,
the Japanese government has introduced several incentives to promote marriage, but so far, nothing has worked.
There is this, you know, financial constraint that people feel that they may not be able to support a family and raise children.
A similar problem is troubling authorities in neighbouring China,
which registered the fewest marriages in 2022 since public records began.
The country also saw its birth rate fall to a record low the same year.
By 2050, China's working population will be reduced by 10%, and not enough, you know, babies born to fill that gap,
and the dependent population, those who reach retirement age, will double.
In a sharp reversal from its former one child policy,
the Chinese government encourages marriage and childbirth since 2016.
But this time, it’s Chinese women who have reservations about married life.
The women tend to spend significantly much more time than their husband in childcare
and other related care. And also, the Chinese workplace is not very women friendly.
Why women don't want to get married or why women don't want to have children is
because the society is not women friendly, the society is not child friendly.
Men talk about the personal freedom that they get for not getting married. But at the same time,
they are really worried that if they were to set up a family,
they will not be able to sustain a family with the income.
The Western heart is closing in an important extent to marriage and family life.
And that's going to have a huge impact not just economically,
but also obviously, socially and emotionally on young adults today.