So here's a question for you when is the real estate dip going to happen and how should we buy
the real estate dip yeah so i think we should we need to tackle that question is when to buy
the real estate dip right i think we're making the assumption that the real estate dip will happen at
one point and last friday if you guys didn't catch it we made a video about whether this dip this
real estate quote-unquote dip will be a crash or a simple correction and when's it going to happen
so i've done some more research daniel and i spent some more hours of research and i believe that
this is probably going to be this will probably set the timeline for the real estate dip so right
now there are approximately 2.3 million homeowners in forbearance for for the kobe 19 because they
lost their job they've been furloughed and many of them have declared that financially they can't
make it so yeah so here's here's an objection to that right because a lot of youtubers meet kevin
actually being one of them have actually said that the 2.3 million mortgages of forbearance
doesn't mean a thing okay because he's saying here here are his two main arguments right and i'm sure
this is what a lot of individuals are thinking but for one he's saying a lot of those 2.3 million
mortgage in forbearance sure didn't go into forbearance because they had to right they
did it because they were able to right they had the option which i thought was the dumbest thing
in the world really why do you think that well here's why because you're i never trust the banks
okay at the end of the day i i don't trust the system i don't trust the banks i don't count on
the banks to actually be on your side when you need the most and especially for for the fact
that um last month we did a video with cnbc not cnbc cfpb the consumer financial protection bureau
coming out and basically saying hey we need to let the we need to make sure the mortgage servicers
mortgage companies are working with the borrowers to make sure that they get the best exit option as
possible and a lot of the exit options that are like favorable and a lot of things that me kevin
and some of these other youtube youtubers talked about they are not always available like the
whole idea of defer deferred payments meaning you know if you have let's say six months of mortgage
payments that have been for in forbearance it's not guaranteed that those six months of payments
could be added to the back end of the loan meaning you have you don't have to pay for it until it's
refinanced or your house is sold or if you know or your mortgage is paid for yeah those are those
options are not necessarily guaranteed so here's the second here's the second argument that they're
making is that government intervention will step in and bail out the average american homeowner
that has their mortgage for variance well let's say let's let's give the government a benefit of
doubt let's give the system a benefit of doubt for a sec okay when do they ever execute any
of these plans perfectly and if they did right if they did isn't it isn't this just kicking the can
like in the inevitable down the road for sure right this is this this is the correction
or something so let's go back right so let's go back to the dip the real estate did right you're
you're just going to win when it's going to happen right so you got 2.3 million morgan what else we
got so out of the 2.3 million um and i attracted two sets of data so march 2021 it was still 2.3
million ish people that hasn't gone down since the last three months uh it hasn't gone down
i i would expect it to have come down to at least maybe at least 1.8 million homeowners
that just tells you that the situation isn't improving for these 2.3 million people now
a lot many of these a lot of experts and economists and i also agree that these are
subprime mortgage borrowers um and and i'll get to that fact and data a little bit uh but at
the vast majority of them probably are still in a financially difficult situation where where
vast majority of them aren't so prime mortgages less than 620 credit scores well here's something
that many people haven't accounted for yet right it's the fact that the rate of inflation the cost
of goods and services not has yet to truly affect the financials of the average american household
we can't forget that because think about what has happened right yes inflation's gone up price is
good and service but income has not gone up yeah we need to give it a bit you know what
also hasn't gone up what's up the fact that they didn't smash the like button they need
to bring that like what was that i gotta bring it out there i know it's cheesy come on graham stuff
hey there we go that was a really weird and cheesy awkward for the sake of saying dignity please
go and smash the like button because otherwise that joke was in vain that wasn't for that yeah
that didn't work man that was a major flop nick would have to edit that out for sure but here's
the thing so so income has not gone up right but the pro the cost is good service historically
speaking yes we need about three to six months before we really start seeing the effects of what
it does to the average american and what's what's scary is that um and i'll i'll go to this data now
because ever since 2014 and this is this has been tracked by hud um department of housing and urban
development uh 2014 what we saw was less people who had the the credit scores between 500 or 620
less of them were able to get the fha financing right um closer to this year 2019 2020 and 2021
we saw an increase of individuals that have less than 620 fico score getting approved
for the fha loan and a lot of times these individuals also have um have more than 43
debt to income ratio what does that tell you well that means that there's they're they're crunched
they don't have enough to to support on and even if there's a slight change in their their expenses
where it goes up or their income goes down now they're in a potentially distressed situation
interesting so here's what i think is going to happen right so ultimately you're saying that
fha programs have gotten very loose right you've alluded to some facts right do you have any other
statistics i would say that fha has is almost replicating what happened in 2005 six and seven
with the central banking system yeah so uh back in 2016 i believe 2016 fha stopped using manual
review okay meaning that um once they especially for those that have less than 620 credit score
right six less than 620 credit score is risky very risky fair risk yeah right banks have to and so
before 2016 when you know we were still kind of like still buzzed right from the 2008 2012 market
crash uh fha and a lot of mortgage companies were still manually underwriting these loans yeah
right making sure that human eyes were looking at it looking the papers well after 2016 they started
doing automatic reviews they left the computers so it was a lot like the mortgage industry in 2004
567 with the ninja loans right and the nina loans right where they just literally
application came in they automatically approved it mortgage brokers made their commission rating
agencies didn't do anything right mortgage-backed securities were actually a lot more substantial
prime they were there actually were yeah you're saying that's what's going on with
fha the last five years no no so it's not as that bad it's not it's not as bad
it's so this time it's not a credit issue i don't think it's a credit issue as much
as what we saw back in 2006 to 2008 in terms of all that growth uh but what is alarming you know
coupled with the hyperinflation conversation right because i wasn't actually thinking about that
uh and as as price and homes goods go up will that get will that will that crunch these people where
they're already at that 43 45 debt to income ratio and um federal reserve and we'll post
all these charts and links down below so you guys can go check that out but federal reserve
uh the delinquency rate for these mortgages has gone up slightly and i believe it was like point
five percent and it went up and it's it's on a holding pattern now my question is if it wasn't
for the mortgage forbearance could that have gone up to maybe like four or five percent absolutely
right right so ultimately i'll play devil's advocate sure go for it right so i actually
think so i do believe i'm with you i think the real estate is going to happen and we'll come
back to the question when because this is a build up exactly what that's happening we need to know
how before we can know when yeah and go ahead and leave your thoughts down below with all the facts
and and research i've done yeah go and comment down below what do you guys think about this is
is you know are we waiting for the inevitable or what's going on so we're going to continue to kick
the can down the road right what do you guys think what is i mean joe biden going to do right and to
keep the ball rolling right what's going to happen here all right so i i agree with you on the when
yes i disagree with you on the how well we haven't revealed when right for sure right but i think you
and i have a clear understanding when it's going to be right but i disagree on the house right
because here's what i believe let's say that you know those mortgage forbearance programs let's
say that the fed didn't come in and save the day maybe let's say the delinquency rate is actually
a lot higher than it is sure what ultimately happens as a result of that well you have an
inventory of homes that re-enter the market yeah right right now we just have people forget the
millennial generation the millennial home buyer is the largest generation even larger than baby
boomers we are a larger generation than the baby boomers and we have records and keep this in
mind as well yes a lot of people are saying we are hunkered by debt but at the same time we have more
available financial vehicles to purchase a home more than ever ever before i mean think about
what we have for fha first-time buyers we have purchased va yeah i mean there's so many different
ways to buy owner financing where we bought our former home through on our financing none of these
options existed prior to the oh they did not right prior to the 70s you either you came up with 50
down payment with a five-year amortization or you weren't buying a home or you weren't buying a home
at all right so we have so much available to us my prediction and so let's say all these homes
did enter back into the market right my theory and this is what a lot of other youtubers are saying
i would actually tend to agree with this that the buyer pool of demand is so strong right now that
those delinquent homes that eventually re-enter the market will be absorbed by the existing
buyers yeah i think that is true considering the amount that rent has gone up everywhere around the
country just shows you how low of an inventory the housing market has really gone in the last
you know 18 months yeah and a lot of the the baby boomers didn't want to necessarily list their
homes to go could covet right absolutely you know because they're they're they're much of the danger
they're probably the mo the most dangerous or i would say what's the word exposed to danger right
let's be real like when when a pandemic is happening when something big is happening
nobody wants to make a major financial decision absolutely people don't talk about the effects
of 9 11 on you know the average american's finances so here's what i ultimately think
the how is going to be right anytime you ever see a recession or a crash or anything of that nature
it's not typically due to housing directly if you look back in 2008 the real reason why that
happened was because of the central banking system yeah right there's a lot of negligence
on their end and yeah housing just happened to be a commodity right most people don't know bubbles
happen with different assets the first bubble that ever happened the first ever crash bubble crash
burst that ever happened in the united states was 1797 with land right that's what happened yeah so
i think in terms of the how i think the biggest thing is gonna be the central banking system i
think we've got to look at two things yeah well hold on so we're gonna so hold up we're gonna
save this video for the so here's a little for a shout out for you guys if you guys want to
continue seeing our content we can actually have a separate video what will cause a dip for sure
we're gonna have a separate video so we're gonna we're gonna come back to the absolutely right but
let me say one then okay i'll give you a little little taste right right sorry guys right sam's
the marketer here so we have to you know sure but but let me give you guys one and this is this
actually is the bigger one okay i think it's going to be a liquidity ratio happening with the bank
because here's what's going on right now a month ago or a month or two ago the federal reserve
changed the way that the banks must hold and reserve in order for them oh so they increased
the reserve rate they changed what's known as the slr which is the statutory liquidity ratio they
went from five percent to ten percent initially they lowered it because of cobalt because they
wanted the banks to have more room right to have mortgages go into forbearance because guess
what in order for banks to put mortgages in for barrett's they have to have a reserve of liquidity
in order for them to do that they can't just say hey bob stop paying your mortgage yeah they still
have to serve services they have a portfolio they have to manage they have investors that they must
accomplish absolutely there's all sorts of things that must happen so in order for the the banks to
do that the federal reserve lowered they cut it in half right now that just it just got back to
normal levels right so now one has to ask well what is the liquidity situation going to be for
banks moving forward right especially when the federal reserve stops pumping money into
the central banking system yes what is that going to look like yeah i think that's going to be the
big one yeah and so there's a little shout out for you guys what was that whole entire separate video
about what would cause real estate dip now here comes when right i think i think the closest thing
i can find and i'm always researching i'm always looking for for other possibilities here but you
know the cfpb has has asked the consumer financial protection bureau which is an agency it's a
federal government and you see that that is is designed created in 2012 as part of the dodd-frank
act uh to protect the individual consumers from these evil you know predatory banks um here's what
they asked the mortgage companies to do is to stop any for uh any foreclosure actions until 2022. yes
so it's basically saying hey just at least stop the bleeding until 2022. could we see a potential
foreclosure wave i think cfpb quietly knows that it could happen like they they secretly think that
it's going to happen and they want to stop it somehow but they don't want to make it obvious
yeah right they don't want to they don't want to create a you know self-fulfilling prophecy kind
of a situation so do i believe that it's going to be a wave i think it's going to come in tranches
i think it's going to come in one wave and then the next wave and it's not going to be one big one
i think it's going to be smaller trickles and 2022 is going to we're going to see a lot more distress
inventory we're going to see a lot more reos real estate owned properties these are properties owned
by banks we're going to see a lot more short sales we're gonna see a lot more foreclosures happening
uh but uh i am very curious to see um the new type of real estate investing that's gonna happen
um i think in the next five years which we'll cover i want to buy during the real estate dip
so we'll have a separate video on how to what to buy they're going to throw in the real estate dip
so yeah we got to pay attention to 2022. so in regards to when that's when you think it's going
to happen yeah so 22 2022 and on a lot of people right now things think that we're in like the
february or we're in the 2016 or 2000 2006 mode which i don't necessarily agree you know we're in
i think this is a completely different situation than than what we've seen in 2008 and 2012. um but
i think 2022 and i think we're going to see the rock boat a little bit in late 2022 the boat rock
a little bit yeah rock boat sure drop boat so i'm gonna i'm gonna say third quarter of 2022. okay
i've been saying for the longest i've been saying since 2016 third quarter of 2020 that's what i've
been saying and sure enough right because it usually takes about six months for the market
to really react what happened sure enough march of 2020 covet hits yeah and i said here we go
this is it you know you add six months to march guess what you get september of 2020. guess what
september of 2020 is it's the third quarter of 2020. i've been saying it for years i said here
we go what i did not account for was the amount of government intervention what i did not account for
was the hundreds of billions of dollars that the federal reserve were going to purchase
in mortgage-backed securities which by the way that's what's propped up a lot of the housing
market in terms of artificial boost the seven trillion dollars are now approaching eight billion
eight trillion dollars in the federal balance sheet uh i did not account for the the three waves
of stimulus that were gonna come in the the amount of inflation that the administration was going to
input to keep the economy alive so to speak i did not see that coming but i do agree with you sam
i think it is going to be third quarter of 2022 not just because of the foreclosure but because
of the liquidity ratio unless there's another government intervention which i think there is
i think there's i actually think there's going to be a fourth stimulus check a fourth round
i think i think things are being set up right now for the buying administration to do a four
stimulus round yeah and and of course they want to look good so uh so that being said guys thanks you
know we'll kind of wrap things up here but we're going to continue this video with the next video
and hopefully by the time you watch this there you know we already released our next video so
the next video we're going to probably do is uh what would cause you will say dip daniel kind
of alluded to a little bit as far as um you know going back to the the old reserve rate
as far as what the banks are required to keep in terms of cash uh we're going to talk about the
cost and then next week we'll start to talk about uh what to buy because i think i think the days of
buying single family is over and i'll explain why i'll i'll leave my thoughts daniel will probably
disagree but um i'll we'll talk about what to buy during the dip because i think it may shock you
so we'll see you in that video guys subscribe leave your thoughts on any comments what you
think what do you agree with us do you disagree with us what do you guys think
how do you think the dips gonna happen yeah leave your thoughts even before we release
the video and then uh we'll see what we can do yeah but see you guys yep see you next video