South America is one of the seven continents - and it’s right in the
middle size-wise. Smaller than Asia, Africa, and North America,
it’s composed of twelve nations - one a regional power, and eleven smaller nations.
Some are large and powerful. Some are small and poor. Some have colorful, controversial leaders,
and others have stable democratic systems of government. It’s one continent,
but its many residents are anything but united.
But what if they were?
Another collection of diverse, smaller states united once upon a time - the thirteen original
colonies of the United States. They had been founded by different European powers, were made up
of varying ethnicities and had distinct economic interests. But despite those disagreements, they
felt that they would be much stronger together than apart. And it worked out pretty well.
So what would happen if the countries of South America decided to unite
into one massive United States of South America?
For one thing, the new United States of South America would be big. Really big. South America
has a landmass of just under seven million square miles. Almost all of that is sovereign states,
besides one small territory in the north and some nearby islands. By comparison, Russia owns just
over six and a half million square miles across all its territory, which would make the United
States of South America the largest country in the world - for now. Russia may decide it’s not quite
big enough and start gobbling up some surrounding countries again, so keep an eye on that.
But landmass doesn’t always equal power, or Canada would have a lot more sway.
How would this new country stack up in other areas?
South America is a pretty crowded nation, with a current population of around 423 million people.
They’re heavily concentrated in cities, and one country - Brazil - would have over half
the country’s population. By comparison, the United States has around 332 million
people - which would catapult South America into the top three countries population-wise.
However, even united they wouldn’t get anywhere close to the top two.
The united continent would have roughly a quarter of the population of India and China,
who combined have around a third of the world’s total population!
But people themselves don’t equal power either - many of the world’s most populated countries have
a serious poverty problem. So how does the United States of South America stand out in another area?
Money makes the world go around, so to determine how powerful this new country would be
we must look at how wealthy it would be, and the biggest factor that determines that is GDP,
or Gross Domestic Product. The United States leads that pack by a fair margin,
with China frequently nipping on its heels. In third place? Japan,
with roughly a quarter of China’s annual output. So it’s a two-horse race,
with everyone else lagging far behind - but surely uniting twelve different nations would give them
a fighting chance? South America’s nominal GDP is around 3.6 trillion dollars, which moves it
up to fifth place behind the top three and Germany. However, much like in population,
the bulk of this comes from one country - with Brazil making up over half of the continent’s GDP.
So the United States of South America would be a very large and
fairly powerful country in terms of economics, but what about the people?
There is usually one major factor unifying a country’s people - their language. However,
more and more today, we’re seeing multi-lingual countries. The United States doesn’t have an
official language, and Spanish-speaking enclaves are increasingly common. In local areas like New
York’s Chinatown, you’re likely to see the Cantonese and Mandarin sharing equal space
with English. However, in most of these places there’s still one central language - but that’s
not the case everywhere. Some countries like Switzerland have multiple official languages.
And the situation would be even more complicated in South America.
The modern history of South America was largely written when the European colonists came over,
disrupting the indigenous societies’ environment. They brought their languages
with them - but like on other continents, they didn’t bring just one language.
Different parts of the continent were colonized by different countries. That means that today,
the primary language in the small nation of Guyana to the north is still English,
while right next to it in Suriname they speak Dutch. French Guiana, still a territory of France,
naturally speaks the mother tongue. Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia,
Paraguay, Uruguay, and Ecuador all speak Spanish - and then there’s Brazil. The
massive nation was colonized by Portugal and still primarily speaks Portuguese - making the
language almost tied with Spanish as the most commonly-spoken language in the new country.
But the situation with languages is even more complicated than that.
Despite the best efforts of some Conquistadors, the indigenous cultures in South America
are far from wiped out. Hundreds of tribes still exist, some integrated into the larger
society and some still largely living as they did centuries ago, keeping their language and
traditions alive. The third and fifth most widely spoken languages on the continent are Quechua and
Guarani, both indigenous languages spoken in Peru, Bolivia, and Argentina along with Chile,
Colombia, Paraguay, and Ecuador. Another native language, Aymara, has over a million speakers
in Bolivia and Peru. Brazil also has unique versions of the Italian and German languages,
Talian and Hunsrik, with several million people speaking them in the country.
And that’s just scratching the surface.
Brazil has 218 indigenous languages, many belonging to small tribes that have little
interaction with the larger country and even with other tribes. Colombia alone has 101 indigenous
languages! Countries like Peru and Chile have large immigrant populations that have settled
there, leading to languages like Japanese and Arabic having a significant presence. It’s one
of the most linguistically diverse continents in the world. But how would a new country like
this sort all the different languages out to form something resembling a coherent society?
The clue to success might come from up north - way north.
Canada primarily speaks English, but in the large province of Quebec, people primarily
speak French. So the country has two official languages, along with giving special status
to some indigenous languages. In most of Canada, you’ll see French printed right alongside English,
on things as simple as a candy bag, almost every word will be translated. And if you head into
Quebec, it’ll be French on top on every sign. A similar strategy might work for South America,
with Spanish and Portuguese - each with over 200 million speakers - both serving as the
country’s official languages. As travel between the regions would increase with open borders,
the two would need to share space on official documents and signs to make
sure no one got confused when they stumbled over the border to Brazil while on a bender.
But that just scratches the surface!
With two other countries having primary languages that differ, Suriname and Guyana would cause a
problem. To avoid confusion, English and Dutch would likely be added as languages
with a special status - along with Quechua and Guarani, with over ten million speakers combined.
A roster of six official languages to be used on official documents might seem challenging,
but hey - you don’t combine twelve countries into one without some work.
But that’s nothing compared to the next problem this nation would face.
What would a government of a united South America look like? Compared to other continents,
there might be fewer challenges ahead. According to Freedom House, Latin America is dominated by
free democracies - eight of the twelve countries on the continent are rated as free. Bolivia,
Paraguay, and Colombia are rated as partly free, having troubled democracies and small
amounts of political chaos - including a recent coup in Bolivia that started when the President
decided to abolish term limits and was overthrown. His party then won the next
election over the people who overthrew him and threw the new President in prison! But even so,
eleven of the twelve countries of South America are pretty used to voting.
But there’s always one exception.
Welcome to Venezuela, one of the most troubled countries in the world.
It elected its first left-wing President in the early 2000s, but after he died and was
replaced by his chosen successor Nicolas Maduro, things went downhill in a hurry.
The country is still ostensibly a democracy - but fewer and fewer people still believe this lie.
Besieged by high inflation, intense protests, and increased political oppression,
the people seemed ready to vote Maduro out - but he seems to win
every election by a wide margin. When the opposition took control of the legislature,
they moved to remove him from office, of course Maduro imediately stoped them.
The Supreme Tribunal keeps giving him new powers, he’s rewriting the constitution, and many leaders
of the opposition have been jailed. Many western countries even recognize the opposition leader
as the rightful leader of Venezuela, but Maduro doesn’t seem to be giving up power any time soon.
So how do you integrate this into a single country?
With hundreds of years of independence and separate cultures developing,
it would be near-impossible to break down the cultural and political differences between the
twelve countries. So a possible model that could be implemented would resemble something between
the United States’ republic of fifty states, and the confederation created in the European Union,
allowing each former country or state to maintain control over their own internal policies
while setting up a larger system of laws that would govern all of them. A central legislature
would contain representatives from all twelve countries, which would be weighted by population.
So Brazil would have more influence over the state of affairs in the continent, although
it’s likely that the Spanish-speaking countries would form a bloc to increase their influence.
And this would create a solution to the Venezuela issue.
If Venezuela agreed to join the larger South American union, they would have the opportunity to
send representatives to the wider ruling body of the continent, and Maduro would likely remain as
the region’s Governor. But with great power comes great responsibility, and every country, including
Venezuela, would have to abide by the laws the legislature passes regarding the country’s laws -
particularly those regarding freedom of assembly and oversight of the voting process. Once national
observers can supervise the election, maybe the opposition could take power. And if Maduro
continues to subvert democracy in his region, he could be arrested by federal authorities.
But where would this legislature actually be located?
Countries take different approaches to capital cities. Some, like Paris and London,
are by far the biggest cities in their nation and are basically synonymous with their country.
Others, like Washington DC, are smaller and are mostly devoted to the business of government.
And in the United States, DC is a special district that doesn’t belong to any one state.
All of these factors would have to be considered when picking the new capital of South America.
The cities of Buenos Aires and Sao Paulo in Argentina and Brazil are by far the continent’s
biggest and could plead a good case for getting the honor - if they wanted it that is. But as the
biggest nations on the continent, both would end up fighting for the right to have the
continental capital in their country. So the best bet might be to pick a city from a smaller nation.
And a lot of factors would have to be considered for this choice.
Many of South America’s major cities have significant crime problems
due to gangs and the drug trade. Hosting the country’s legislators in them would
pose a major security risk. Venezuela is of course out because of its political stability,
and Colombia still has major security issues due to conflicts between the FARC guerilla group and
right-wing paramilitary groups often backed by the government. A good candidate might be Lima,
Peru - one of the largest cities in the continent, but also one with a moderate crime rate.
While street crime is an issue in the city, its murder rate is far below most of its neighbors.
But what would that legislature actually look like?
The political climate in South America can be volatile - just like most other
countries. Each country tends to swing dramatically in terms of political leaning,
with the far-left and far-right often dueling for power. Currently, Brazil is
led by far-right politician Jair Bolsonaro, a controversial figure, and his bloc in the new
legislature would be backed up by right-wingers in the smaller nations of Paraguay and Uruguay.
Center-left leaders like Ecuador's Guillermo Lasso would be key to any coalition.
The left controls the other eight countries - but they are anything but
united. Bolivia and Colombia have left-wing leaders who can be very outspoken,
while Argentina is governed by a mainstream center-left party. Chile has a split government,
with a left-leaning President and a right-wing plurality parliament. With eight of twelve
countries, the left seems to have the edge in electing a President or Prime Minister as the
country’s leader - but would they be able to get along long enough to make a decision? The best bet
might be for some of the center-right politicians to work with the center-left
and elect Argentina’s Alberto Fernandez as the first leader of a unified South America.
Of course, an election is coming up shortly in Brazil - and if Bolsonaro
loses his re-election to the former left-wing President
Luis Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil, it would change the entire distribution of power in the
country and give the left absolute control over the legislature and the continent’s direction.
A United South America would change a lot of things - including the
continent’s role on the world stage.
There would be one downside to uniting South America though, that being losing power in
the United Nations . They would go from twelve seats in the general assembly and twelve seats
to spread out over the various councils to one - a pretty stiff downgrade. However,
that trade-off comes with one advantage - more sway as a regional power, and they might be able
to negotiate for reforms alongside other regional powers. If timed right this could work out as
there’s one area in particular where there’s a growing push for reform - the UN Security Council.
Because on this council, not everyone is equal.
Formed in the aftermath of World War II, the UN Security Council is unique because it gives veto
power to a collection of the world’s most powerful nations - the United States, Russia, China,
the United Kingdom, and France. These were all members of the Allies during World War II, and are
some of the most powerful countries in the world. Germany and Japan were left out for being on the
wrong side, and other regional powers weren’t even considered at the time. But today, many people say
this is a relic of the past and it should either be expanded to countries that have risen in power,
or should have the veto power removed altogether. The new United States of South America could
unite with regional powers including India, South Africa, and Egypt to call for reforms.
But what about the home front? What would South America’s united military look like?
All twelve countries of South America have their own armies, but some are much bigger than others.
The largest military of South America is Brazil’s - no surprise - with around 1.7
million active-duty and reserve military members, making it the 8th largest in the world. Colombia’s
active-duty military is almost as large, but its small reserve number means it only has a
total of around 330,000 putting it in 20th place. All the other countries have smaller militaries,
but combined, the military of the nation of South America would number around 3.6
million total personnel - which would give it the title of 6th largest military in the world.
But numbers don’t always mean strength.
South America has mostly been able to stay out of the larger wars enveloping the globe.
Aside from some minor skirmishes, most of its military conflicts are internal,
such as Colombia’s decades-long regional conflict with FARC. The last major international conflict
a South American country faced was the Falklands War with Britain, which Argentina lost decisively.
Additionally, none of the twelve South American countries have nuclear weapons
or a nuclear program, and new countries are prohibited from joining the nuclear family
due to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. So it’s not likely that South America would be seen
as a global military power right away - nor would it have reason to want to be.
But the nation would have increased its diplomatic influence.
South America has two major ongoing territorial conflicts, and they haven’t been able to get
close to resolving them until now. The first is the Falkland Islands - a small island group off
the coast of Argentina that has been a British holding since 1771. It has a population of just
under 3,400 people - most of them British citizens - but Argentina claims the islands and calls them
Las Malvinas. While the Falklands War ended in Argentina’s defeat, the islands remain a
point of pride for the country, as well as those countries who are opposed to Britain’s politics.
Would a united South America be able to push for the return of these islands?
Magic 8-Ball says…outlook not so great.
While it’s an emotional issue, there are major logistical issues stopping Britain from giving
away the islands. For one thing, it’s never been officially held by the nation of Argentina.
Britain has consistently held it since before Argentina was an independent nation,
and the largely British population strongly favors staying part of Great Britain. The war
in the 1980s only deepened those divisions, and reincorporating it into Argentina would likely be
a messy process that would result in most of the residents leaving. So while Argentina may continue
to press its claim, it’s likely that the nation of South America wouldn’t make that official policy.
Besides, they have a much bigger territorial concern - and it’s on the mainland.
That strip of three small countries atop South America’s northern coast have been the bane of
many students taking a geography quiz, and its not just because one of them isn’t even a country.
While Guyana and Suriname are independent, their neighbor French Guiana is actually the largest
outermost region of the European Union - still being administered as a territory by France. It’s
official currency is the Euro, it’s recognized as part of the European Union, and it’s governed by
an assembly that works with the governing country. It only has a population of 294,000 people,
and it’s dominated by forests. In fact, 41% of its land area is a national park!
So is this status quo likely to continue?
In 2010, the residents of French Guiana did have their say - voting in a status
referendum. While they weren’t given the choice of full independence, they were given
the chance to vote on becoming an autonomous territory that would govern itself, or being
further integrated into the French Republic. The people of French Guiana and other French
territories had complained about lower wages and standards of living compared to mainland France.
Those seeking more independence were strongly motivated when voting started - and then 70%
the votes went in favor of sticking with France. The independence movement has been quiet since,
but that might change in our scenario. Becoming an independent country is a challenging prospect,
but now they’d be asked if they want to become part of a different, much larger country.
Would this decision even be made by the citizens of French Guiana?
Even with South America’s new clout as a united nation, it’s unlikely that they
would be able to convince France to give up its territory. And they would
have no interest in another conflict with a powerful, nuclear-armed European nation.
However, they might be able to convince the French authorities to allow another referendum offering a
choice between staying a member of the French Republic, joining the United States of South
America, or becoming independent. But early in South America’s status as a unified country,
the citizens of French Guiana would most likely stick with what they know.
Of course, South America would have its own concerns.
Creating a new country is tricky. Uniting twelve countries is even trickier,
and the odds are that the United States of South America’s early years would be
filled with conflict, debate, and growing pains. Just like the last United States.
Looking for more hypotheticals about global politics? Check out “What If The World’s Land
Was Divided Equally”, or watch “Hitler’s Plans For The World If He Won” for a darker what-if.