Toyota announced years ago that they were developing solid state batteries that would
be a breakthrough for the battery industry. It would have features like being cheaper,
more energy dense, have a longer life span, and possibly most impressively, be able to charge from
0-100% in just 10 minutes. If all these things are true, this battery would easily solve EVs biggest
problems. Well fast forward a few years and we’re just now getting some real details about the
battery itself, so the question is, does it live up the hype? In a recent interview with auto-Line,
Toyota’s chief scientist Gill Pratt gave us some much needed answers about this infamous battery,
but before we get into the interview, lets real quick check out their prototypes specs thats
currently using their solid state battery, The Lexus hypercar. Oh quick PSA that I’m sure you
already know, but Lexus IS owned by Toyota. So this beautiful concept car is a two seater than
can do 0-60 in the low two second range, which is nutty, but the big selling point for this car
is obviously the solid state batteries. I’m not gonna lie I was pretty disappointed when I heard
this cars max range, because remember, this is using the new breakthrough batteries,
its max range is 435 miles. Now thats not a bad range by any means, its right around the
current longest range Tesla model S. But this is a two seater, the model S is a 4 door sedan,
and this is a prototype where Toyota can spare no expense. Basically this is the best case scenario,
and 435 miles of range, is just kinda average. Obviously that sort of range in a production
car or truck would be awesome, but the fact that this is a prototype and a two seater, smaller
cars obviously can be more efficient, it makes the range pretty lackluster. But if we put ourselves
in Toyota’s shoes where they’ve developed this new battery that has way better energy density, better
range, way better charging speed, and plenty more benefits, they’d be in a powerful position. Even
if they couldn’t produce very high quantities of this battery, they could charge outrageous prices,
and some people would be willing to pay a ton for those benefits, especially the 0-100%
in ten minutes. They could completely own a portion of the market, so lets keep that in mind,
if they had this breakthrough tech like they claim, they would have a huge advantage over
the rest of the industry. Anyways this is just to give you some frame of reference,
now lets listen to the interview and hear what Toyota’s chief scientist Gill Pratt has to say and
as always if you want to watch the whole interview from Autoline, I’lll leave it linked below. (CLIP)
Aight so we just learned some very interesting stuff about Toyota’s Solid state battery tech that
we can then project out about their plans for the future. First thing is that they’re planning to
have the batteries in production in 2025, or about 3 years. Thats actually pretty soon all things
considered. Another player in the solid state sector, Quantum scape which if you aren’t familiar
with them, they’re basically a start up who’s goal was to make solid state batteries for EVs, and has
gotten funding from the likes of Volkswagen. Quantum scape says they’ll be able to start
producing their batteries in 2024, which would be ahead of Toyota, however if there’s anything I’ve
come to expect with these breakthroughs in battery technology, its to take every time prediction
with a grain of salt. But if quantumscape thinks they can start production in 2024,
then it seems reasonable for giant like Toyota to be able to start in 2025. So far so good, but
there’s another thing he said that makes Toyota’s batteries not look so good. He said this (CLIP)
The battery pack is smaller and therefore less sensitive to cost. Thats a nice way of saying
that these things are too expensive. If they put this battery tech in an EV, it would be
cont prohibitively expensive for people to buy. Now this is somewhat speculation, but its also
not a very big leap. Part of the problem is that new manufacturing techniques are expensive and
it takes time to be able to manufacture new and complicated things at scale, so that makes sense.
But the somewhat dissapointing thing is that solid state batteries were supposed to be cheaper and
easier to manufacture, among other things, because they don’t have the liquid component. Now I would
guess that eventually they will be cheaper and easier to manufacture, these things take time,
but having the new revolutionary battery tech be so expensive it doesn’t make sense to make
an EV out of it sure does put a damper on things. But I think this is one of the most disappointing
things that we learned from this interview, they’re putting this battery in a hybrid.
Meaning all the theoretical benefits get reduced because you’re putting it in a vehicle with an
ENTIRE GAS ENGINE. Like this battery is supposed to be more energy dense meaning you could make the
vehicle lighter, but hybrids have tiny batteries already so it was already a very small part of the
total vehicle weight. Also these new batteries are supposed to charge incredibly quickly, but hybrids
use the gas motor to charge the battery, so charging speed as far as the driver is concerned
doesn’t matter basically at all. These batteries are also supposed to have a longer lifespan,
which hybrid owners do care about, but its not nearly as important as in a pure battery EV.
If your battery EV only has 80% of its original capacity,
you can’t drive nearly as far as you could, but if your hybrid battery only has 80% of its original
capacity, all it really means is you won’t get quite as many miles per gallon as you used to,
but its probably not worth it to do anything about it. What I’m saying here is that while hybrids do
obviously use batteries, those batteries aren’t nearly as integral to the overall
function of the vehicle, so even if the battery is twice as good, which it isn’t, but even if it was,
it wouldn’t equate to that much better of a user experience.
You’d still have to go to a gas station to fill up, just slightly less often, and I do mean
slightly. Maybe your mileage goes from 50 MPG to 60 or 70 MPG, thats a nice benefit for sure,
but its not game-changing by any means. Where as if your battery was twice as good in a BEV,
that could mean doubling your range, or having faster charging speeds, or a longer lifespan,
and the list goes on. What I’m trying to say is this, if Toyota hade some breakthrough in battery
technology, they should make it the star of the show like in a BEV. Putting it in a hybrid is
immediately limiting the effect it can have on the user, because the battery is only a small part of
the whole in a hybrid. Its like hiring gordon Ramsey and then making him a sous chef, you
don’t put the star of the show in a minor role. But lets listen to another part of the interview
because he somewhat addresses this point, (CLIP) NO (CLIP) and this is exactly my point, if one
of the huge benefits of solid state batteries is the ability to charge them much faster, then
why would you put them in a hybrid, where that increased charging speed isn’t fully utilized.
These latest admissions from Toyota don’t tell us everything, but they tell me that
their battery tech isn’t the revolution that they originally had hyped everyone up about.
If its going to be closer to a decade before these batteries start shipping in BEVs,
I don’t know how much impact they’ll have on the industry because here’s the other thing.
While the charging speed and energy density might look quite good by todays standards,
if they aren’t hitting the market for years, then its not nearly as impressive. Every single year
traditional lithium ion battery technology gets better and better, in 10 years i’m sure it’ll have
better properties than it does today, making it more competitive against this theoretical
solid state battery. You can’t compare tomorrows promises with today’s reality, thats a lesson we
seem to have to learn time and time again. So while I’m excited for Toyota’s new batteries,
I’m not going to hold my breath, and I don’t think you should either. Especially considering
how reluctant Toyota has been to move forward on the EV adoption train, and if you want more
information about the steps Toyota has taken to slow down EV adoption, check out this video.
We’ll leave things there, if you liked the video please leave a like and subscribe,
if you loved it, consider supporting me on Patreon. Aight peace.