For over 15 years, Somalia has faced one of the deadliest islamist insurgencies in the world.
Taking advantage of the prolonged political instability in one of the world's most
notorious failed states, Al-Shabaab has terrorised large parts of the country.
But there are now signs that it's in retreat.
In recent months, Somali special forces, assisted by the United States, have been fighting back.
But, as a recent increase in attacks has shown, the group won't go down without a fight.
So, what exactly is Al-Shabaab?
Why is it so powerful? And can it finally be defeated?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
Over the past quarter century, the rise of islamist movements has been
one of the central themes of international security.
But while we've tended to think of this as being focused on the Middle East and North Africa,
where we've seen the emergence of groups like Al-Qaeda and Islamic State,
islamist extremism has in fact extended well beyond these areas.
Major insurgencies have also emerged across South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
One of the most significant examples is Al-Shabaab in Somalia.
For the past decade and a half,
it's wage one of the most vicious and brutal insurgencies in the world.
In large part, it's fed off Somalia's power vacuum.
And yet, the country's government is now fighting back.
But while it seems that progress is being made,
can the government really succeed in defeating the group?
The Federal Republic of Somalia lies in East Africa,
in an area usually known as The Horn of Africa.
At 640,000 square kilometres, or 250,000 square miles, it's the 43rd largest UN member.
Lying on the Indian Ocean, officially it has borders with Kenya to the south,
Ethiopia to its west, and Djibouti to its north.
However, Somaliland has proclaimed Independence
and exists as a de facto state, but is not internationally recognised.
Somalia's population is thought to be in the region of 16.5 million.
While it's widely considered to be one of the most homogenous countries in Africa,
with ethnic Somalis making up around 85 percent of the population, it has a very powerful and complex
clan based structure, which has often become a source of tension and conflict in its own right.
In terms of religion, almost all somalis are Muslim;
adhering to the predominant Sunni branch of the faith.
First recorded by the ancient Egyptians 5000 years ago,
in the 7th Century the Somalis became one of the first non-Arab peoples to
embrace Islam as the new religion spread beyond the nearby Arabian Peninsula.
A thousand years later, in the 17th century,
parts of present-day Somalia would become the very southern tip of the Ottoman Empire.
However, our story really begins in the last quarter of the 19th century,
when Britain, France, and Italy carved up the region.
This lasted until the start of decolonisation following the end of the Second World War.
On 26 June 1960, Britain relinquished control of Somaliland; its holding in the north.
Just days later, on 1 July, Italy formally gave up the South.
And at this point the two parts merged to form the Republic of Somalia.
On 20 September 1960, the new country became a member of the United Nations.
Almost from the start, problems emerged.
The two parts of the new state had very different histories under British and
Italian rule making their integration difficult.
At the same time, inter-clan differences began to destabilise the country.
But the key development came on 15 October 1969, when the country's second president,
Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, was assassinated.
Just days later, a military coup installed the commander of the army,
General Mohamed Siad Barre as the country's new leader.
Renamed the Somali Democratic Republic, the country underwent a profound change.
Aligning with the Soviet Union, Siad Barre abolished the constitution, banned political
parties, severely curtailed civil rights, and tried to break the country's clan system.
Moreover, he also began claiming Somali inhabited territories in neighbouring countries.
This came to a head in July 1977, when Somalia invaded Ethiopia.
However, after eight months of war, Somalia Was defeated.
This would have important consequences.
For a start, it led to a complete realignment of the country's foreign policy.
After Moscow's decision to support Ethiopia, Siad Barre now turned to the United States.
Meanwhile, internally, opposition to the General's dictatorial rule increased,
leading to ever harsher reprisals - especially in the north.
But as the Cold War ended, international support for the regime disappeared.
And in January 1991 Barre was finally overthrown by rebel forces and fled the country.
While many may have hoped that the country would now enter a
new democratic era, Somalia instead collapsed.
As Somaliland broke away, the rest of the country descended into civil war as
the central government lost all control and was replaced by warlords and clan fighting.
This soon led to a humanitarian disaster as
hundreds of thousands died of illness and starvation.
However, U.N. efforts to help were hampered by the general lawlessness.
As a result the United States now stepped in to try to ease the situation.
But despite its best intentions, things went very wrong.
As U.S. Special Forces attempted to arrest several Rebel commanders in October 1993,
two U.S. helicopters were shot down.
This led to a huge fire fight in the capital, Mogadishu, that left hundreds dead.
In the aftermath, Washington withdrew from Somalia - soon followed by the UN.
While efforts were made to try to create a new government,
any administration could only extend its authority over a mere fraction of the country.
Somalia had now become a failed state.
However, as the 1990s ended the picture was changing as
Islamic groups became increasingly significant.
The most prominent of these was the Islamic Courts Union,
which rose to prominence by providing a Sharia based legal system in amongst the wider anarchy.
Crucially, the ICU was supported by an armed wing:
Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, better known as Al-Shabab, or "The Youth".
In 2006 the ICU and Al-Shabab took on the warlords;
quickly gaining control of Mogadishu and large parts of the rest of the country.
However, its victory was short-lived.
In December 2006, Ethiopia invaded at the invitation of the internationally
supported Somali Transitional Federal Government.
Within weeks, the ICU had been driven out of the
capital and just a few months later it had disintegrated in entirety.
At first, there was a sense that the islamist threats might now be over.
In February 2007, the U.N. Security Council authorised an African Union
peacekeeping Mission - AMISOM- to help stabilise the country.
And two years later, in 2009, Ethiopia pulled out.
However, although the ICU had disappeared, Al-Shabab remained intact.
Having retreated to the south, it now launched an Insurgency.
At the same time, it became increasingly radicalised and nationalistic - calling
for the creation of an Islamic state uniting the Somali people of all the countries of the region.
Having already been designated a terrorist group by the United States,
in 2012 it merged with al-Qaeda.
In the years that followed, Al-Shabab's fortunes varied.
While it was forced out of many of the main towns and cities,
it nevertheless extended its control over large parts of Southern and Central Somalia.
As well as imposing strict Sharia law, and clamping down brutally on any opposition,
the group also introduced punitive religious taxes to raise funds.
Meanwhile, it continued its campaign against the central
government and the African Union mission in the country.
As well as now launching attacks against
Uganda and Kenya for sending troops to Somalia, it continued to target the capital.
This came to international attention in October 2017,
when it bombed a crowded road intersection in Mogadishu, killing well over 500 people.
Although the following years weren't perhaps as deadly, the group nevertheless continued to
pose as serious security threat to Somalia - terrorising large parts of the country.
So, why could things now be changing?
There are several reasons.
First is the election of a new president in May 2022, thus ending a period of political
instability under the previous leader who had refused to leave office after his time ended.
Although the government's reach is still highly limited, and the new president has
been tainted by past corruption scandals, it nevertheless marked a step forward and
has been widely welcomed, especially as he pledged "total war" against the insurgents.
More to the point, there's been a marked increase in military operations against Al-Shabab.
This has been led by a special unit at the Somali army: Danab, the Lightning Brigade.
This is funded and trained by the United States, which has also supplied drones to Somali forces.
At the same time, the armed operation continues to be assisted by the African Unio.
ATMIS, the recently introduced successor to AMISOM, continues to help support Somali forces;
although it insists that it will depart by December 2024.
But perhaps most importantly a new group has joined the fight: Macawisley.
No longer willing to tolerate Al-Shabab's brutality,
especially as the country faces a devastating drought, local farmers
have set up their own vigilante group, supported by the government.
All this has seen important results as government forces, assisted by international and local
partners, have taken control of dozens and towns and villages over the course of 2022.
But it goes further than this.
Crucially, the new government has also put in place measures to tackle the group in other ways.
This includes clamping down on extremist messaging by closing websites, restricting
sympathetic media, and introducing new controls over religious teaching.
Controversially, this has included appointing a former high-ranking
member of Al-Shabab as the new minister for religious affairs.
But while all this gives rise for hope that Al-Shabaab can be defeated,
the battle is still far from over.
The U.N. estimates the group still has between 7,000 and 12,000 fighters.
In addition, it spends over $24 million a year on weapons and explosives,
from a $100 million a year in revenues from various sources.
In this sense, Al-Shabaab is not going to be beaten easily.
Indeed, over the course of late 2022, it's staged several high-profile attacks.
In October, it detonated another huge bomb in Mogadishu, killing over a hundred people.
This was followed in November by a raid on a hotel in the city that left over a dozen dead,
including six Al-Shabaab militants.
All this has made 2022 the deadliest year since 2017.
On top of this, there are also wider problems.
Even if national forces are pushing Al-Shabaab back, the country remains highly insecure.
Even now, the government remains hidden away in a secure green zone in the country's capital.
More to the point, as has been seen in the past,
Al-Shabab is extremely adept at retaking lost territory once security forces pull out.
In this sense, the campaign against Al-Shabab and other insurgent groups,
including Islamic States, could well have a long way to go.
Nevertheless, and despite all this, there are still positive signs that the group
can be defeated and that Somalia may at last be taking another important step towards recovery.
But, of course, this isn't the only major International islamist insurgency.
Here's a playlist looking at some more examples.
Alternatively here's another video that you might find interesting.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.