Good Friday afternoon everybody.
I'm meteorologist Tim Pantages here
with your Atlantic tropical update.
We're talking about invest 94 L.
It is June 24th 2022.
Been a minute since we've done one of these.
It's been quiet out there in the Atlantic,
so here's the latest development.
Odds are increasing for our newest
tropical wave that has been tagged
invest 94 L Now it's unusually early to
see development in the area in which
invest 94 hours currently located.
I'm going to show you that in just a second.
We are still days away from
any potential impacts to land,
so that's good news.
There's a lot of time to watch this
and see how it evolves, so here it is.
Here's invest 94 L sitting way out
in the Eastern Atlantic right now.
Development odds within two days 20%.
But within five or up to 60% in
fact likely higher than that.
As we get more and more updates
over the next few days because
of how conducive the overall
background environment currently is.
For this, it's moving to the West at 22.
Miles an hour currently has winds.
Satellite estimated at around
25 mph all right first.
What is an invest invest 94 L is
what this system has been tagged as.
Let's break it down.
Invest just stands for an
area of investigation.
It's allows the Weather
Service and Hurricane Center.
Now put modeling onto this system to
see where it may go in the future.
94 is just a number that we cycle from
90 to 99 just to keep track of the
overall systems and the letter L indicates.
It's in the bit which basin it's in,
so L corresponds with Atlantic,
E is Eastern Pacific,
C would be central Pacific.
So for in regards to these videos,
we're mostly just gonna be talking
about Atlantic Basin storms.
So where does it stand on our
tropical vocabulary pyramid?
Well,
investigative areas are right up there
just past tropical disturbances.
Next up would either be a potential
tropical cyclone which is rather new.
Start being used in 2017 or we jump
right up to a tropical depression.
Doesn't get a name until it becomes
a tropical storm.
And then of course,
a hurricane or major hurricane
at the top of that pyramid.
So factors to consider when
looking at invest 94 L.
Well,
the area that it's in is usually
hostile this time of the year,
but it's actually very conducive
this time around.
Record warm sea surface temperatures.
I'm going to show you those in a second.
It's like bath water out there in
the Atlantic plus low wind shear.
Also unusual that it's so low
this time of the year.
Those are two huge factors into the
potential evolution of this system.
Going forward now in the area that
it's currently in, called the MDR,
the main development region,
less than 1% of storms that develop in June,
are from that area, so it's very,
very rare that we see development
in the main development region
outlined here in red in June,
1% of systems develop and move out of
there and become something to watch.
It's usually favored for tropical
development, July likely late July through
September through the heart of the season.
That's when we see a lot of Cabo Verde.
Storms, Cape Verde Islands.
Storms develop and our long track
and we can see them for weeks.
Not usually the case in June.
Very unusual. Alright,
here's how it looks on visible satellite.
Now we're using go 16 satellite
imagery here showing the update.
You can see a general broad circulation,
no closed circulation yet.
It's just an open wave right now.
That's all it is,
but it's got a 60% chance within
the next 5 days of developing.
And when we throw the wind streams on it,
you can also tell if there
is no closed circulation.
We're not seeing any generalized
combination or convergence of
those winds into a a center,
so it's just an open wave.
Now moving off to the West.
Rather quickly and very warm sea
surface temperatures and also low winds.
Here there is spin associated with this,
but it is not kind of congealing
itself together right?
It's not getting down and becoming more
circular and moving forward from there,
so it is present,
but it's very elongated at the moment.
It will likely get a little bit more
organized in the next couple of days
now to water vapor imagery, right?
This is where we look at moist air dry air,
dry air and the copper color here
off to the north and West now.
It is June typically,
according to climatology,
we see a lot of dry air via Saharan dust.
So you may be asking yourself,
where is all the dust?
Not there it is not present at all.
We've got a little plume here,
well out to the West of the system,
but most of it's over the African continent
and just exiting well to the north.
That's another aspect of 94.
L is it's what we call a low rider.
It is very far to the South and we'll
actually scoot the northern coast of
South America so it's avoiding not
only the wind shear to the north,
but also the dry dusty air that would
be detrimental to it developing.
Here's a look at the wind shear environment
going forward over the next few days.
This is the forecast track or area of
development over the next five days.
Notice winds here,
which is going to be all the greens and
Blues and wind streams you're seeing here.
That's areas of high
winds here going forward.
None of it really gets into
that development area,
so it's not many hurdles for
this to clear as it heads West.
On top of that, as I mentioned,
is the sea surface temperatures very,
very warm,
well above where they should be.
You need 80 degree water temperature
or warmer for tropical development.
We've. Certainly got that look at the
air temperatures here in the mid 80s
out ahead of where 94 L will likely
be heading in the next couple of days.
Not only is it the skin of the ocean
that's very very warm and above average and
certainly suitable for tropical development,
but it stretches down to a depth.
It's very, very deep and why that's
important with tropical systems is that
when they're moving across the Atlantic
and they're developing and organizing,
they create waves, right?
That's a big symptom of tropical systems,
high waves, and that mixes up the ocean,
something called upwelling.
When you've got this,
just the surface of the water,
that's very, very warm.
And it mixes it up.
It mixes up cooler water so it's self
limiting and it cuts off its own fuel source.
When you've got deep warm water,
the upwelling is just continuously
continuously replacing surface waters
with warm waters from a depth.
So we've got that as well.
And compared to average,
these are the anomalies.
Sea surface temperature anomalies.
Here's the chart.
A lot of this is getting close
to the high end of that chart,
being above average of about
5 degrees or so in that area.
More notably the Gulf of Mexico
closer to the United States.
Is cooking especially the northern
gulf off the charts anomalously warm
sea surface temperatures there in
the northern gulf in the low 90s?
That's how warm it is now.
Something that's been kind of scooting
under the radar is the potential of a
brief tropical system developing in
the Gulf of Mexico via a cold front
dropping towards the coast through Texas,
which in and of itself is rare
this time of the year.
I like to compare this to the Gulf
of Mexico being a powder keg and
this cold front.
Being a spark or a match and we're
bringing that match closer and
closer to the fuel and as it dips
into the northern gulf,
it tails along and we see some spin
develop as a result and that could
potentially become a very short lived
tropical system building inland to
coastal Texas by the middle of next week.
So that's something to note there
to keep a watchful eye on too.
Let's jump back to 94 L and look at
what the models are doing with it.
Generally just a westward.
Consensus we've got a very strong
Ridge of high pressure sitting
over the central Atlantic,
so that's driving this storm to the
West eventually into the Caribbean.
But this is about 7-8 days out.
Before it's impacting anybody in the
Caribbean and a lot of the models do
take it even farther to the South.
In fact,
let's do a comparison now with
the GFS and the European.
So the red line is gonna be
the European model.
The yellow lines is going to be the GFS.
Here we are by Sunday,
so this is when it's starting
to get it to act together.
Maybe starting to show
some signs of organization.
Close lows, both models have it there now.
Pretty much in the same general area.
Go out another couple days.
Here we are Tuesday night in a Wednesday
getting towards the southern Leeward Islands.
A little bit stronger,
still likely messy and broad at this point,
but it's scooting.
The northern coast of South America.
You see how far South this is,
but developing in the southern
Caribbean and then as it heads towards
Nicaragua by this time next week?
We're looking at a full fledged
potential hurricane here in the southern
Caribbean heading towards Nicaragua.
Now this is just one run.
This will change is a lot of time
to watch this between now and then,
but certainly with the sea surface
temperatures and the deep ocean heat
content above average ocean temperatures.
Low wind shear.
Certainly the environment
is conducive for that.
So what are the next names on our list?
We already used Alex,
we've got Bonnie up next and
then potentially Colin too,
so we'll have to watch that area in
the Gulf for potential development.
And also invest 94 L both would be
well ahead of climatological norms.
Typically we see our second name
system in the Atlantic around July
17th and the 3rd not until August,
so both would be coming in well ahead
of time, alright, until next time,
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More updates coming your way this weekend.
If anything changes till then,
have a safe cool weekend with the high
heat still in place here across Texas.