A lot has happened over the past year in aviation, and we’re sure to see more
change as the market improves. The impact on quadjets, though, is likely to be permanent.
Many A380s have been retired already, and over the coming decade, they will become an ever rarer
sight. But… What’s to become of these superjumbo jets in the coming years? Today we take a look…
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The Airbus A380 Was a significant achievement in aviation. It can carry more passengers long-haul
than any other aircraft developed so far – and will likely hold that record for some
time to come. But why has it struggled so much? As we know, it has not worked out as well as
hoped for either Airbus or airlines. The planemaker bet big on the popularity of
hub-based operating models, but more airlines have moved to point-to-point. Additionally,
the size of the jet has limited its use at many airports. The efficiency and capability
improvements of twin-engine aircraft have further sealed the fate for quad-jets like the A380.
After Emirates reduced its order for the type, Airbus announced the end of the program in 2019,
with Emirates’ last aircraft now set to be delivered in 2022.
Over the program’s lifetime, the A380 had a total of 251 orders from 14 airlines.
Even before the pandemic hit, the A380 was in decline. Several airlines (including Hong Kong
Airlines, Kingfisher, and Virgin Atlantic) canceled orders before taking delivery.
Others, like Qantas and Emirates, reduced their orders.
In 2017, Singapore Airlines retired its first aircraft. A few years later in October 2020,
Emirates followed suit (though this was planned before the 2020 slowdown).
Since the start of the pandemic, many aircraft have been grounded,
and some have already been retired... Air France announced early in the
crisis that it woul:d speed up the retirement of its entire A380 fleet.
Lufthansa has retired six aircraft while the remainder look unlikely to return to service.
Qatar Airways’ CEO called the A380 “the airline’s biggest mistake” and has already
confirmed the impairment of five aircraft. Etihad’s CEO has expressed the opinion
that they are commercially unviable. Malaysia Airlines is also in the process
of selling its entire Airbus A380 fleet. The obvious option for relatively young
aircraft retiring early is to move to other airlines, and it’s a popular model
across the world. Many airlines prefer to keep a flagship fleet of younger aircraft,
and with this likely have lower operating costs and maintenance requirements. At the same time,
other airlines are happy to take cheaper aircraft and keep them in service for longer.
But with the move away from high capacity four-engine aircraft well established, no
airline has been keen to expand their fleet with this type. Additionally, many smaller airlines
would not have a use for such a large aircraft. Though the A380 remains a great aircraft,
albeit with a declining second-hand price, we may see future uptake. In early 2021,
the price of a secondhand A380 had fallen 50% – the most of any aircraft type.
In March 2020, Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury spoke about how he still saw a future for the A380.
He cited their popularity with passengers and unrivaled space for
additional cabin features as leading reasons. Emirates CEO Sir Tim Clark also lent his
support to the A380 recently. In an interview with Simple Flying, he stood by his fleet,
expecting it to remain in use for at least the next 15 years. Likewise, he cited popularity
with passengers as a key factor in its success. With ongoing delays to Boeing’s 777X program,
they could be increasingly important. Emirates, though, has a unique relationship
with the A380, having ordered 123 of the 251 aircraft delivered. The airline also operates
a true hub and spoke network and serves many busy slot-constrained airports where the A380 excels.
It also benefits from the economics of such a large fleet.
If a single airline cannot justify regular A380 operation, charter use for specialized flights
may be an option. The only second-hand A380 deal so far was with the Portuguese charter airline
Hi Fly. It took one A380 from Singapore Airlines and used it for many different
charter operations. At one point, it was interested in taking a second aircraft,
but in November 2020, it announced it would retire its only plane of the type.
There are no signs yet of other charter or leasing companies being interested.
High-capacity pilgrimage routes are another option. Malaysia Airlines,
under its sub-brand Amal, tried this for the Kuala Lumpur to Mecca route. This used a standard fitted
Malaysian Airlines A380, but specialized use could see the A380 carry as many as 853 passengers.
And what about freight use? Wouldn’t such a large aircraft be ideal?
Unfortunately, this is not necessarily the case. While the A380 was originally planned
with a freighter version, Airbus faced delays to the Airbus A380 program which prompted
freight customers to cancel orders.. There was plenty of interest and orders for 27 aircraft.
With a payload of 150 tonnes, it would have been the largest freighter on the market
apart from the one-off Antonov An-225. Part of the problem with the freighter version
was the aircraft size. There was simply too much space to be filled with cargo, and the aircraft
would most likely reach its maximum load with space remaining. There were also loading issues
with the two decks. Special airport infrastructure would be needed to reach the upper deck.. Hi
Fly did try to convert the aircraft for light freight use but saw limited demand.
In 2021, there have once again been discussions about freighter use.
According to the publication FreightWaves, Airbus is exploring with airlines the possibility
of modifying the aircraft for cargo use, and possibly as a passenger and freight combi version.
Such a conversion is said to be technically possible but would take time to develop.
It seems unlikely to be a solution for immediately retiring aircraft, but maybe it
will become more attractive once greater numbers of aircraft are retiring from the Emirates fleet.
We would all love to see an A380 modified for private use.
And we’ve talked about this extensively before in our episode: The Logistics of a Private A380.
The onboard space would allow some great facilities to be installed, and with fewer
fittings and passengers, the range would be extended (this could be at least 17,000 kilometers
according to Airbus data). But it has not happened yet and probably won’t anytime soon.
For government use, the A380 was briefly considered as a replacement
for the current VC-25A modified 747-400s that serve as Air Force One.
However, Airbus declined to bid, as it it would have to move production to the
US for just two aircraft, something it felt would be prohibitively expensive.
And Geneva-based company Sparfell & Partners attempted to market four second-hand A380s as
conversions to private jets. These were proposed with a VIP conversion of either both decks or just
the upper deck, but there were no firm orders. But this may be set to change as the second hand
value of the airport continues to drop. Perhaps we will see VIP users being tempted at some point.
Barring these other potential uses, storage or scrap become the only options for the
superjumbo. If the market shows signs of improvement, though, scrapping aircraft
may be delayed. On the other hand, storage and preservation is an expensive option if
there are no signs of change in the market. Scrapping an aircraft this size is, of course,
no easy task. But many of the parts can be recycled for further use,
making it an economically worthwhile endeavor. The engines, of course, are the most valuable,
and with aircraft scrapped early, these retain a good portion of their value.
Additionally, parts of the interiors, avionics, wings, and landing gear can also be easily sold.
Anything that remains could be broken down and recycled.
TARMAC Aerospace was the first company to be tasked with scrapping an A380.
It completed this in 11 months and claims to have recycled over 90% of the aircraft.
It is a shame to see so many A380s retiring early and not find new uses. Do you think
this will change over the coming years, or are most aircraft going to head to the scrapyard?
Let us know your thoughts in the comments.